5 year Market Outlook/Opinions Part Deux
10-10-2022, 06:13 PM
#81
Gets Weekends Off
Thread Starter
Joined APC: Dec 2007
Posts: 5,455
Originally Posted by Finessed
You still bag holding those Alibaba long calls for a massive loss? It’s funny how you don’t talk about how bullish you went on a big loser. Those contracts have to be totally worthless.
10-10-2022, 06:26 PM
#82
Gets Weekends Off
Thread Starter
Joined APC: Dec 2007
Posts: 5,455
Originally Posted by Bucking Bar
OPEC+ is a collection of the worst folks on the planet. The fact any of our $$ goes to these murderous warmongers sucks. They are already off their production agreements by more than 3 bn barrells. The agreement to remove 2bn barrels is mostly talk; a handshake among murderous thugs.
Biden and most rational politicians realize the answer to American energy independence and affordable prices is "all the above."
Biden's power to do anything is severely limited. The banks and investors aren't interested in funding a lot of exploration. Most people in the business realize that constrained supply = greater profits. They know that they are on the back of the demand curve and they are going to try to pull down supply to maximize profits as long as they can.
Anyone who thinks this is simply partisan is not seeing the whole picture.
Biden and most rational politicians realize the answer to American energy independence and affordable prices is "all the above."
Biden's power to do anything is severely limited. The banks and investors aren't interested in funding a lot of exploration. Most people in the business realize that constrained supply = greater profits. They know that they are on the back of the demand curve and they are going to try to pull down supply to maximize profits as long as they can.
Anyone who thinks this is simply partisan is not seeing the whole picture.
10-10-2022, 06:45 PM
#83
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jan 2022
Position: :)
Posts: 464
Originally Posted by Trip7
What’s about to happen over the next few years in energy is a classic human mistake that gets repeated over and over again. A new technology is discovered and society gets hyper excited, immediately writing off the old way and throwing unbelievable amounts of capital at the new technology far beyond what can achieve an acceptable return. Over a few years tons of investor capital is destroyed until a few sustainable companies are left that go on to prosper. It happened with cars, trains, airplanes, the internet, etc etc. Renewable Energy is just the latest fad. To make matters worse, even if policy were changed to immediately support production, it’ll take 3 years to meaningfully increase supply. Next few years will be very interesting.
Lmao.
10-10-2022, 06:48 PM
#84
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Nov 2020
Position: Enoch Powell Enthusiast
Posts: 2,158
Originally Posted by All 5 Stages
It will be interesting to see with whom in Venezuela the U.S. will negotiate: will it be with President Juan Guaido -- whom the U.S. recognizes as the legitimate president -- or that other guy Nicholas Maduro.
A5S
A5S
10-10-2022, 06:51 PM
#85
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jun 2015
Posts: 1,677
Originally Posted by Trip7
That's unfortunate you're not in it long term. It's my largest position and high conviction stock. Eagerly awaiting 3Q earnings where I anticipate nearly $1 Billion in Operational Cashflow. Back in 2018 when Newcastle Coal was trading in the $100 range per ton BTU traded at $45. Newcastle Coal is currently $400+ per ton and China hasn't even fully opened yet. I've been accumulating since $5 a share and still believe the stock is cheap. My base case Fair value for the stock is $70—$80
Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk
Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk
https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/...al-is-left.php
10-11-2022, 03:28 AM
#86
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2015
Position: stake holder ir.delta.com
Posts: 10,133
$150 oil puts tar/oil sand production back in high gear. US and North American supply insulates us from Russia and the Middle East. The shift will hasten electric vehicles which will hasten non fossil fuels.
https://www.jobyaviation.com/news/de...ransportation/
https://www.jobyaviation.com/news/de...ransportation/
10-11-2022, 04:59 AM
#87
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Feb 2012
Position: CRJ FO
Posts: 4,600
Originally Posted by notEnuf
$150 oil puts tar/oil sand production back in high gear. US and North American supply insulates us from Russia and the Middle East. The shift will hasten electric vehicles which will hasten non fossil fuels.
https://www.jobyaviation.com/news/de...ransportation/
https://www.jobyaviation.com/news/de...ransportation/
10-11-2022, 06:16 AM
#88
Gets Weekends Off
Thread Starter
Joined APC: Dec 2007
Posts: 5,455
Originally Posted by chrisreedrules
I’m not sure there is a single state with the infrastructure to support a mass influx of EVs. And the average middle income household can’t afford an EV to begin with.
Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk
10-11-2022, 07:40 AM
#89
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2015
Position: stake holder ir.delta.com
Posts: 10,133
Originally Posted by Trip7
The EV mania over the past couple of years has led to complete and utter irrational exuberance. Led to Tesla becoming a Meme stock and currently trades for over 50 times earnings. EVs are currently a very niche market for upper middle class and above folks, like cell phones in the 90s. We're at least 10 years away from have the infrastructure to support mass adoption of EVs
Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk
Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk
Thread
Thread Starter
Forum
Replies
Last Post
