FYI

# of Widebodies
AAL 133/121 (YE2019/Now) 5 788 & 30 789 growth orders
DAL 150/151 (YE2019/Now) 19 A339 & 20 A359s growth orders
UAL 196/215 (YE2019/Now) 5 787-10s growth orders

Atlantic Q3/2022 revenue
AAL $1.901B/$3.848B
DAL $2.313B/$4.553B
UAL $3.186B/$6.756B

How much of that domestic ordering is going to replace their RJ feed? They have way more of those than we do. Is it part of a plan to absorb regional flying?

Honest question.

Yes, it’s part of the plan. Still 250 737’s in the next 2 years is vastly more seats than the 150 RJ’s they plan to drop over that time frame. Add in Delta and American growth plus large orders at the ULC’s and domestic capacity is going to soar. How yields respond remains to be seen. Historically airlines are boom or bust. The 2012 to 2019 boom era was one of the few where capacity restraint was practiced to a degree. It paid off in spades. Managements like pilots can’t seem to respect what historically leads to success.

Yes it it. United's domestic network and hubs are underdeveloped and more RJ dependent than AAL and especially DAL thus the big narrow body orders. DAL's ATL will always be the best domestic hub in the world and by a large margin. United's international network is more developed than its competitors.

http://airplanes.itsabouttravelling....4-1024x683.jpg
Northern tier DAL 787

DAL transatlantic 787
https://theflight.info/wp-content/ga...dreamliner.jpg

Uniteds 787 order was preceded by 100 Max orders....coincidence?

My guess is most of the other 52 777s will be there as well. They may retire a few but doubt it.

kirby is extremely familiar with AA and their weaknesses. He is very much in a position to move UA from 3rd size wise to a clear 1st among US carriers. DL is still not at our pre Covid size measured by seats available, we also probably won’t match his capacity growth, and AA is in a weak position if yields suffer too much.

it’s more like a prisoner's dilemma, if everyone keeps capacity tight we all do better…but individually if I am able to grow capacity significantly and none of my competitors can I will be much better off. And I think this is what Kirby is doing.

I personally think he is going all in with a full house, knowing no one else has a 4 of a kind and fairly confident no one has a straight flush.

“more” compared to what, United?

United currently has 54 767s (400s included) and 74 777-200s With 100 787s replacing them, that leaves 28 772s not being replaced (assumingely)

On property:
28 777-200 (not being replaced)
23 777-300
12 787-8
38 787-9
16 787-10
Future:
16 787-10 (old order)
100 787 (new order)

233 Aircraft on Top Pay Band by 2030. Not including the 45 A350s on order (which don’t come until 2030 and would likely replace the 777–300s)