I will be surprised if the actual award goes below 4000 for ATL350A. The mock has no "training wheels" (&#128513 on it. And, I think they have pretty much accounted for most of the 350 deliveries. Retirements are the driving factor at this point.

 

​​​​​​Just to clarify, is this your prediction by 9/2025 per a previous wager?

I doubt we're staffing for late 2024 deliveries yet. We still have to take the the LATAM tails out of service for interiors. The 350K will show up on a mid/late 2025 AE. At best we will see a few more WB vacancies on a Feb AE with May training, then nothing but a trickle til June/July for September training.

 

Correct, by 9/2025 we should have 2014 and later hires in the left seat of a pure WB A. I think NYC765A will be the first wall to fall.

 

That’s what? About 6000 seniority? I highly doubt it.

 

2014 NH are in the 5,000s

 

Correct, but it is the high 5000s. However, Trip may be very well right with this prediction and it most certainly will be NYC 765A.

However, I feel the most intriguing prediction/wager will be will after 18 years, will Hockey44 finally be able to "HOLD" captain in Atlanta by the 9/2025 AE? I would've put some serious money on that one.

In fact I propose this: In recognition for his participation here on APC every week, and never failing to not complain, he should be awarded special treatment. Maybe hockey can get to pick his own BES and bid list number from this day forward.

 

I was already awarded captain. The answer is yes. At a seniority percentage I am comfortable with also.

 

Currently 2014 hire starts at 5867

I'm an Jan 14 hire and widget Seniority has me at 4961 on 09/25

I'm still doubtful about Trip's prediction.

 

10 years in and at 35%! That's pretty amazing and movement like that might never be seen again at Delta. I'm starting to think trip might be right also.

 

As a late 2000 hire, the first time I could and did hold 765, A330, A350, was the November 2023 bid. I got A330 NYC. This most recent mock bid shows pilots junior to me holding A330 in ATL, and DTW, I didn't really check SEA, and A350 at all 3 bases.....in 2 months. I know the gap between me and a 2014 hire is around 2000 numbers, so not a lot, but a lot of movement is happening right now at the top, which hasn't happened in my career. I hope it lasts, but this kind of movement that's happening, might be once in a career/generation....so my advice, for what it's worth, is grab your seat now, if it's what you want, even if you're stuck on the bottom for a couple years till you can bid back down for seniority.

Trip's prediction is looking more and more likely in the next year or two, assuming things stay healthy in the industry. I wouldn't be surprised if the wall falls by next year at this time.

EDIT: I haven't even started training but before this bid even finalizes, two months after I'm on the line as a newly minted A330 Captain, I'll be better than 80% in the category 😉