JamesBond

Ambrosi says there is no shortage. What is the truth?

MaxAutoBrakes

The hiring number for 2024 being told to interview classes this summer/fall was 1700 for 2024. The difference between that and the new number of 1100 is pretty close to the number of retirements that would be expected next year....unless age 67 passes. My guess is that the number was reduced as Delta is hedging bets that 67 will go through in the Spring, coupled with the ongoing 320 and 220 issues. What will be interesting is to come back to this at the end of next year and see how many are actually hired. From my understanding the original 2023 goal was 1800 and revised up several times. When 320, Max, and 220 deliveries pick up in 2025 will the number increase again or remain in the 1k/yr range?

Hiring 2000-2400/yr was never going to be sustainable. I don't yet see this a red flag, just getting back to a more normal growth profile. If age 67 does pass and Delta still hires 1100 for the year that is still very very solid growth.

The average retirements per year between now and 2053 is 470/yr per the latest seniority list.

tcco94

320 issues? I thought those weren’t going to affect us. Also it’s unlikely it’s going back to 2500 anytime soon and that’s not really a cause for worry. Our list was 12500 after Covid. It was obvious that was to build the airline back and with growth. I don’t know why this is being blown so out of proportion and everyone is panicking. 1100 in any other pre Covid year was great growth.

MaxAutoBrakes

My understanding was PW is having parts/replacement issues all around. I didn't think we were going to be hit as hard as some of the other operators but that we would still feel some affects. Someone with more 320 knowledge can correct me if I'm mistaken. From the fleet news letters 220 deliveries have been delayed and the engine parts issue has resulted in reduced block hours recently

Agree that going back to 2500 is highly highly unlikely. The rapid hiring was due in large part to rebuilding from the Covid departures. Like I said, I'm not concerned. 1100-1300/yr is right in the 4-6% target growth that has been advertised for a long time.

tcco94

The PW issues were supposedly identified and not a problem for a lot of our neos. Most airlines with earlier neo deliveries have the issues…ie. Spirit etc.

PilotBases

Agreed.
In the 2014-19 hiring years, 1100 was beaten once:
https://www.fapa.aero/pilot-hiring-history

FangsF15

Age 67 was my first thought too. But even if the company is hedging on 67 passing with this projection, it still doesn't explain the difference of 600 pilots. For one, why project an annulaized number on something that hasn't even happened - even if they really did have some "inside info"? Further, while we have a little over 500 mandatory retirements, not nearly all of them will stay on. The fact is, noone really knows what % will go past 65. So, while it's hotly debated how many 65 y/o's will stay, there has to be more going on than just that. Even adding the 220 engine issues.

I'm wondering what the "booking curve" might be showing. Or if they know of some delivery delays. Or, frankly, a little of all the above.

Someone will eventally ask BS on Skynet what's up - maybe he'll give a veiled answer which might give some insight. Maybe. But the Bottom line is 1100 is still a historically significant number.

FangsF15

Interesting looking at 2013 compared to 2023. Lot's of reasons why, but still... Dang. 820 compared to almost 12000.

And that, folks, is why it's better to be lucky than good. The fact it took some Captians 16 years to make it, and others 2 years (or less) is not your fault. If you are the latter, be glad of your good fortune, but don't think you are entitled to it either. And the inverse is also true if you are the former. Don't hold it against the pilot who just got lucky with his/her timing.

PilotBases

Purely speculation, but I wonder if part of the reduction is due to the Max? It was supposed to arrive Q1 2025, so if that's taken a delay, Q3/4 24 hiring would be lower. Has the Max been pushed to later 25?

1Taco

it went from June 2025 to Dec 2025 I heard.