Because with NB growth comes additional hiring at the bottom, so it kinda balances out when looking at %. So, I wouln't expect the NB deliveries to have much of an effect on the percent senioirty to hold Captain. WB deliveries, on the other hand, are a different story. As we continue to retire the 767-300 (paid basically NB rates), and replace those airframes with 350/330's (paid WB rates), plus actual growth WB's, that will represent genuine top-end growth that will lift all boats with the rising tide. By how much has been a source of much debate here and elsewhere.

Take a look at the AE Trend Analysis thread, pinned to the top of the DL forum. Look at the graph below the main post, and you can see the thin line that was very stable at about 86-87%, until the past 4 monhts. It has definitely been trending more senior recently, though it's also a little volatile lately. As marcal pointed out, all the data in the above thread is for the absolute bottom award, which is typically NYC - but to a lesser extent than it was pre-covid. So, if you want MSP, plan for longer. Also, I agree with the analysis thus far, especially what Gone Flying and tennisguru said about being stuck at the bottom. Getting dogpiled as the plug captain AE after AE wouldn't be much fun, especially for a commuter.

As for the future, I suspect we will see lower 80's% become the norm, possibly even lower (more senior). With 500 retirements a year, and (supposedly) about 1000/year hired, I can easily see 5 years for someone not yet on property. But who knows? 5 years is an eternity in this business. Also remember, one AE does not make a trend...

At the end of the day, what I would suggest you ask yourself is when will you hit low 80's%? For now, I would plan for that as a 'safe' expectation. I don't think it will trend junior to what it has been over the last year.

 

I'll throw in a plug for the DALSEN tool, made by an active Delta pilot and you can change input variables such as hiring or growth for estimates.

 

AE Analysis here: AE Trend Analysis

 

They said at last Standard's meeting a couple of weeks ago going to see 15 yr upgrades soon.

 

That slide was literally one person's opinion displayed as fact. Its all about numbers and has been discussed ad nauseum above.

 

Yeah, it's not just going to jump like that unless we start shrinking. But it's steadily going to tick up from 3 years to 4 years then 5, 6, 7, 8 and probably level out around there for a bit. All wildly dependent on other factors beyond anyone's control.

 

That’s still pretty good. Took me over 16.

 

That seems about right for WBA. We could see a 2010 hire hold it next year.

 

Really? This again? To hold off all weekends and holidays?

 

You choosing to stay an FO loooong past your first opportunity, so that you would enter senior enough to reliably hold weekends and holidays off is not remotely the same thing as what is being discussed here.

Some folks act like 15 years is the norm. It's not. It may have been typical for a time, but that's what happens when you hire barely 1000 pilots in the 12 years following 9/11. That was due to a confluence of factors, including 9/11 furloughs, raising the age from 60>65, consolidation in the industry, and the 2008 housing/market crash. Compare that to the 11 years since then, where we have hired nearly 12000 pilots... Which period is closer to "the norm"?