Captain Upgrade Times?

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10-28-2024 | 09:50 AM

#31

Casualinterest

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Quote:

Originally Posted by m3113n1a1

My guess is 5-10 years for someone not already on the list today and increasing.

Heard directly from Director of Pilot hitting that anyone hired after 2024 would expect to sit in the right seat for 10 years.

10-28-2024 | 10:01 AM

#32

tennisguru

Roll’n Thunder

Joined: Oct 2009

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From: Pilot

Quote:

Originally Posted by Casualinterest

Heard directly from Director of Pilot hitting that anyone hired after 2024 would expect to sit in the right seat for 10 years.

We currently have basically 17000 pilots. Assuming it takes 80% overall seniority to hold a CA spot, that puts CA at 13,600. It will take 3,400 pilots worth of retirements to reach that point. At 500 pilots/year that would take 6.8 years for a new hire today to reach 80%. And that considers zero growth of any kind during that entire timeframe. So 10 years to hold any CA spot doesn't really play out, although as has been discussed it will take longer to hold certain bases and much longer to hold decent CA seniority.

10-28-2024 | 10:25 AM

#33

PilotJ3

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Joined: Jul 2010

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Quote:

Originally Posted by hockeypilot44

$20k? Used to be a lot of money when houses were $300k, $100-$150 bought groceries for a week, and decent cars were $20-30k. Now $20k per month isn’t a lot of money.

But if you have 18 days off you can go and fly 3-4 extra days a month and make a lot more than a senior FO.

That was my point. And if you can’t live with 20k a month, then you’re very very very out of touch with the reality of 90% of the Americans. Also you have the option to work and get more money. 20k a year is what some people do, we can produce that in 1 month working at minimum.

10-28-2024 | 11:06 AM

#34

CowBoyz47

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Quote:

Originally Posted by tennisguru

Primarily interested to see what the 20-40 350-1k’s, 350-9’s, 330’s adding WB positions does to NB A, as well as general growth across the fleets.. maybe drop it a handful of %’s?

10-28-2024 | 11:11 AM

#35

FangsF15

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Joined: Sep 2011

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Quote:

Originally Posted by CowBoyz47

Primarily interested to see what the 20-40 350-1k’s, 350-9’s, 330’s adding WB positions does to NB A, as well as general growth across the fleets.. maybe drop it a handful of %’s?

Some of those are replacing the 763’s. The ones that are actual growth beyond that will likely have an effect, yes.

Plus, replacing a NB-paying 763 with a WB-paying job will also have an effect.

10-28-2024 | 01:32 PM

#36

20Fathoms

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Joined: Mar 2019

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Casualinterest

Heard directly from Director of Pilot hitting that anyone hired after 2024 would expect to sit in the right seat for 10 years.

Gotta be Gumm right?

10-28-2024 | 01:55 PM

#37

m3113n1a1

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Buck Rogers

Uhhh Hello? This is financial.

Keep up

We were talking about time to upgrade to Captain and then the costs of homes in domiciles. Not proposed and totally theoretical future tax policy.

Keep up.

10-28-2024 | 04:32 PM

#38

Gunfighter

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Joined: Apr 2007

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Quote:

Originally Posted by PilotJ3

Because unless you get trips bought by LCA, you will be working more than a 72hr moths CA. FOs have to credit 120 to get to that pay.

QOL is in the left seat where you can bid 65hr line, make 20k and have 18-19 days off a month. Even in the 80% in category.

LCA trip buys arent the only way to FO nirvana. Reserve GS has been lucrative without increasing days worked. Reserve GS with banked PB days is even better, because it becomes pilot choice of days or dollars. I've had several reserve months worth 160 hours "working" six days (Unused LC, 2 SC + 4 day GS). A month with one res trip, SC, and a GS you still have 18 days off with >120 hours. 2023 was better than 2024 because of silver slips and increased utlization of WBB reserves. 2025 could pull the rug out from senior WBB and drive WBA more senior.

10-28-2024 | 05:23 PM

#39

Whoopsmybad

Can’t find crew pickup

Joined: Jun 2021

Posts: 3,066

Likes: 210

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gunfighter

I’ve seen multiple categories where the GS game has been drastically reduced, and with hiring 1000/yr those buy offs are going to get more rare then they have been the last few years. Even the people that have been here a long time and seen a lot lost some perspective.
And if you want to plan your commutes and not live tied to a phone, and have some flexibility in days worked, a junior upgrade is enticing. But as the grave train normalizes, I bet even NBA continues to get more senior.

10-28-2024 | 05:42 PM

#40

PilotJ3

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Gunfighter

I know lca trips are not the only way. But if you commute, the rolling T is harder.

Also SS are not being awarded anymore. It’s going to be interesting 2025.