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Old 10-29-2024 | 09:21 AM
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Originally Posted by Khantahr
That math doesn't math. In three years the interest would be around 100k, not 210k. That's assuming 7% interest and no down payment.

Lol, too many edits gonig down another rabbit trail that I cut out. Corrected. $231k was if you held it 10 years at 6.8% with a 20% down payment.
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Old 10-29-2024 | 09:48 AM
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Originally Posted by crewdawg
Lol, too many edits gonig down another rabbit trail that I cut out. Corrected. $231k was if you held it 10 years at 6.8% with a 20% down payment.
And let's say that they can sell the house for 600k 10 years later (a 40% increase), then you have to take into account real estate agent commissions and other associated costs with selling, let's conservatively say 6% (36k). So you get 564k from the sale. You pay off the roughly 300k remaining on the loan. Now you have 264k left. Which sounds good, but you paid 220k in interest so now you're looking at 44k "profit." But wait, you put 20% down (80k) so now you are actually 36k negative. And that 80k down payment invested making an 8% return would be 177k after ten years. So you're actually 133k down. And this isn't even including the cost of maintenance and repairs and all the other associated phantom costs that come with owning a home. So using an extremely conservative 1% of the purchase price per year on maintenance that's another 43k for mx over 10 years. So now we're down 176k (note: this doesn't even take into account the portion of your payment that went to principal. Just interest). Owning does beat renting over the long term usually, but it's not a home run like everyone seems to think it is (sometimes if you get lucky with timing it is). Your primary home really isn't an investment either, if you like a house and want to live in it, buy it. But just don't try to rationalize it by telling yourself it's an investment.
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Old 10-29-2024 | 09:48 AM
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Originally Posted by crewdawg
There are plenty of great YouTube videos or articles that explain it better than I type out. WRT to buying investment properties, not all class of investment properties are created equal. A triplex may cash flow nicely while the SFH breaks even. Also remember that many of landlords bought at much better terms and thus their rent isn't as high. If you look at the data, many of the small-time landlords have rents well under market because they either don't know the market or are scared of a vacancy washing out their profits. Anyway, if your kids are looking to buy a house that they plan to spend less than 10-15 years, it's worth exploring both options.







I'm 100% with you on the long-term aspect, I just see too many people who listen to the old adage that buying is better and that's just not always true, especially in today’s market. Depending on who you believe, the average American moves every 8 to 13 years. In that case, which isn't so uncommon for airline pilots, it's not so cut and dry. WRT your properties that had solid returns, did you account for your mortgage interest paid to that point, real estate taxes, insurance, repairs, closing costs, inflation, etc...? On a 3-year hold your down payment money being in the market is admittedly small, but it's not nothing and something worth considering. Clearly this is a bigger factor the longer you stay.



I'm not saying this is you, but so many people just go, I bought it for $350k and sold it for $450k... I killed it! That's just not the whole story. Never mind that with inflation, $350k in 2021, is $421k in today’s dollars. With the interest rates of 2021 (assuming 2.5%), they spent $20k on interest, so they're back to break even. Now add taxes, insurance and repairs. This is best case with 2.5% interest, which we'll be lucky to ever see again. Let’s look at a more relevant example of today...



Since you brought up military, I went and looked in the neighborhoods that I've seen some of my AF buddies have lived in while based at Nellis. I found a nice 3bd/3ba house renting for $2300/month. A comparable house just down the street recently sold for $430k. A mortgage on that is about $2700/month (guessing low on re tax/insurance). With current interest rates, in a 3-year assignment, they'll have spent $70k, just in interest. That's a lot of appreciation to overcome and this doesn't factor in RE taxes, insurance, mx, closing costs on both ends, realtors, etc... The cost to rent over the same 3 years...$83k and your spouse didn't have to deal with that hot water heater failure as you boarded the charter plane, headed out on a deployment (true story lol). Is this an extreme scenario, maybe, but we're in really odd times in the housing markets. All I'm saying, is do the math.
This is an absolutely spectacular post. Right up there with Gunfighter Real Estate advice. Do the math folks.

Numbers do not lie. Politics, poetry, promises, these are lies. Numbers are the closest we get to the handwriting of God.
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Old 10-29-2024 | 10:08 AM
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Originally Posted by m3113n1a1
And let's say that they can sell the house for 600k 10 years later (a 40% increase), then you have to take into account real estate agent commissions and other associated costs with selling, let's conservatively say 6% (36k). So you get 564k from the sale. You pay off the roughly 300k remaining on the loan. Now you have 264k left. Which sounds good, but you paid 220k in interest so now you're looking at 44k "profit." But wait, you put 20% down (80k) so now you are actually 36k negative. And that 80k down payment invested making an 8% return would be 177k after ten years. So you're actually 133k down. And this isn't even including the cost of maintenance and repairs and all the other associated phantom costs that come with owning a home. So using an extremely conservative 1% of the purchase price per year on maintenance that's another 43k for mx over 10 years. So now we're down 176k (note: this doesn't even take into account the portion of your payment that went to principal. Just interest). Owning does beat renting over the long term usually, but it's not a home run like everyone seems to think it is (sometimes if you get lucky with timing it is). Your primary home really isn't an investment either, if you like a house and want to live in it, buy it. But just don't try to rationalize it by telling yourself it's an investment.

Sorry, where did you live during that 10 years? Am I missing where you backed out the cost of renting for 10 years? I know you said you don't need much, but a cardboard box under a freeway bridge might be a bridge too far. :>

At 3k /month average rent over 10 years would be 360k.

Also, alot of those military types are getting VA loans
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Old 10-29-2024 | 10:36 AM
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Originally Posted by Buck Rogers
Sorry, where did you live during that 10 years? Am I missing where you backed out the cost of renting for 10 years? I know you said you don't need much, but a cardboard box under a freeway bridge might be a bridge too far. :>

At 3k /month average rent over 10 years would be 360k.

Also, alot of those military types are getting VA loans
Which is why I said buying isn't ALWAYS the best choice. Just trying to shine a light on the absolutist thinking people like you have.
And I said owning beats renting over the long term.

Last edited by m3113n1a1; 10-29-2024 at 10:48 AM.
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Old 10-29-2024 | 11:35 AM
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Originally Posted by m3113n1a1
Which is why I said buying isn't ALWAYS the best choice. Just trying to shine a light on the absolutist thinking people like you have.
And I said owning beats renting over the long term.
So I'm the absolutist because I am interested in both sides?

Interesting POV.

In your example the renter is out 360K and the buyer is out 176K. (by the way, your maths didn't math)

This whole rent/buy conundrum can be summed up with the the 3 F's, cars and houses, with the caveat of length of holding period added.

If you intend to keep a wife, boat, plane, or house for 3 years....then rent/lease.

If you are in it for the long haul.....buy.

If your lenght of "ownership" is somewhere in between.....do some analysis.

I thought every body understood this principle


BTW.... can you show me any post where someone/anyone said buying is ALWAYS the best option? Absolutist me arse.

Last edited by Buck Rogers; 10-29-2024 at 11:45 AM.
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Old 10-29-2024 | 12:11 PM
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Originally Posted by Buck Rogers
So I'm the absolutist because I am interested in both sides?

Interesting POV.

In your example the renter is out 360K and the buyer is out 176K. (by the way, your maths didn't math)

This whole rent/buy conundrum can be summed up with the the 3 F's, cars and houses, with the caveat of length of holding period added.

If you intend to keep a wife, boat, plane, or house for 3 years....then rent/lease.

If you are in it for the long haul.....buy.

If your lenght of "ownership" is somewhere in between.....do some analysis.

I thought every body understood this principle


BTW.... can you show me any post where someone/anyone said buying is ALWAYS the best option? Absolutist me arse.
Well in crewdawgs example the rent was 2300, so the renter would pay 276k... But their 80k down payment plus the delta between rent and the mortgage would have compounded to roughly 240k. (This doesn't even include investing the savings from not paying for mx and upkeep on a house)

My whole point is that it's not always a slam dunk home run to buy, but if you can find a house for the right price and good interest rate and are willing to stay there at least until the rent buy curve crosses in favor of buying, then that's great!
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Old 10-29-2024 | 02:28 PM
  #68  
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One key variable worth adding to the Rent vs Buy discussion is price point. The equation looks much different when your options are renting a $250,000 house for $2000 or renting a $1,000,000 house for $6000. In the lower price points buying is often a better choice, but the flexibility of moving is appealing. In the higher price points where renting is "cheaper", the intangible value of control has more value. Do you really want to get all settled in to your dream home and have the landlord non-renew the lease so they can sell or move back in in? Oddly, buying and living in a "rental" house is a great first move. When it's time to upgrade, you keep it as a rental with your original owner occupied 30yr fixed rate mortgage. Where it goes sideways is when people try to keep McMansions as a rental and have a million dollar asset renting for $6,000 a month.

The first year snapshot looks good on the rent vs buy comparison. Add in a few years of inflation and the rent increases much more than your PITI because P&I are fixed, only TI is subject to inflation. One of the reasons real estate investments are so forgiving is that inflation can solve most problems as long as the asset has fixed rate debt.

Finally if you have a large enough portfolio of rental property and a way to claim RE professional on a tax return you can W2 above $500K AND be in or under the 24% marginal tax bracket.

*No actual comments related to Captain upgrade times were included in this post.
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Old 10-29-2024 | 04:40 PM
  #69  
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Sooooo ... at the risk of offending the masses, any chance we can split this off into a "The standard Day 2/3 of a rotation real estate/financial discussion/lecture" and an OG "Captain Upgrade Times?" thread?

... asking for a friend.
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Old 10-29-2024 | 05:16 PM
  #70  
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[Mod Input] Moved the pertinent drifted posts to a new thread. Please continue Money and Buy/Rent discussion here.
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