The EDP costing debacle is 100% on the Company. They own the optomizer and it was incumbent upon them to accurately model the proposed changes to rotation construction. I know it's hard to believe their A-team in crew planning could mess up so badly. Ive heard the individual responsible is still employed. Let Delta be Delta. Garbage in, garbage out.

I have also heard a good portion of the 4% growth is coming from fully restoring RJ flying, which has been reduced since Covid.

Nonetheless, it is a dangerous game they are playing here. Rumored hiring doesnt cover attrition, let alone any amount of growth. Also lets not forget the increased vacation value on April 1 or the fully phased-in staffing formula changes coming by summer as well. I think summer 2025 will run warm dampened by the bow wave of unprecedented levels of hiring over the last several years. If they double down on silly and dont ramp it back up by EOY2025, summer 2026 will be nuclear. Just in time for contract negotiations to be in full swing. Hats off 2.0!

 

There’s an arrogant overconfidence in all of the company’s modeling, and has been for years. They believe themselves to be much better than they are at forecasting all things manning and costing. They confuse flail and chaos with dynamism and agility.

The Eddie Bear sets that tone - just as he did when he forecasted us to be on our way to being a 7,000 pilot airline just a few years back.

The good news is that the instability has the potential to make a pilots a lot of money, provide a lot of time off, or sometimes even both.

 

Don’t know if you’re signed up for ALPA newsletters or not, but the subject/title is

DAL 048 School House Feed 12-19-2024

Usually LEC updates make it into aerodocs so I assumed this one was no different.

This newsletter will cover the following topics:

• Updates on 2025 Hiring
• Recency Sims for Seniority List Instructors (SLIs)
• Event Swaps to Line Flyers
• SLC Training
• ARCOS Changes Coming Soon
• Recap from Our Local Council Meeting on 12/13

· 2025 Hiring

The latest staffing updates that were sent to our Membership Committee show a reduced hiring projection of 515 pilots for 2025. Obviously, this number is essentially just a replacement for the roughly 500 retiring pilots in 2025. However, we all know plans can change in an instant, especially with the changing economy, struggles at low-cost carriers, lagging Airbus delivery schedules, and the certification of the 737 Max 10.

 

Well, that’s true of course. But my minor point is that things said “publicly” are things like investor calls, media interviews, official media releases, statements at external recruiting events…

However, things said in internal memorandums (“obtained by Aero Crew News”), Town Halls, Indoc, In Command (or whatever it’s called now), Velvet, etc are not “public” statements per se. But as rightly you point out, they must assume it will ‘get around’ and become public eventually.

I’m not disagreeing they said it, nor dismissing its value here. Just that technically, assuming it will become public is different and distinct from a “public statement”.

 

[QUOTE=First Break;3867638]The EDP costing debacle is 100% on the Company. They own the optomizer and it was incumbent upon them to accurately model the proposed changes to rotation construction. I know it's hard to believe their A-team in crew planning could mess up so badly. Ive heard the individual responsible is still employed. Let Delta be Delta. Garbage in, garbage out.

Hiring to only cover attrition will most certainly not reduce the cost of EDP to the company, will it not?

 

“The plane of the future… The plane of the future… the plane of the future.” ~Leo DiCaprio

 

Amen! Im sure it will come as a surpise to their leadership elite, yet again.

 

I'm quoting you Fangs, but I'm mostly responding to the other posters.

The notion that the company's hands are tied because they stated at "investor day" a 3-4% growth is getting things off course. I totally get the SEC reporting criteria, and public vs private info. I habitually scour the 10k/10q, listen to earnings call, etc precisely because they can't lie. But they obfuscate like crazy. It takes practice to read between the lines.

First off, 3-4% growth of what? It's not pilots, nor credit, nor block hours. It's likely Available seat miles (ASMs). And it's not solely Delta mainline. It's mainline + regionals. So hypothetically, parking some old 320s and 763s and replacing them with 1 for 1 with 321s and 339s increases ASMs without a drop of new block hours. Additionally, CFO Dan Janki mentioned last earnings call that regional jet utilization would be fully restored by S2025, touting this increase in utilization as a contributor for 2025 growth. Point being, we could hire strictly for retirements, and still hit 3-4% ASM growth as an enterprise.

Second. Just because they publicly state their goal is 3-4% at investor day, or on any call, doesn't mean they can't pivot to something else, like 1-2% or whatever. These are big picture targets. They can make up reasoning to excuse their past guidance, and they do so frequently.

 

No one knows, not even EB.

PW inspections, yes.

CFM parts shortages, yes. The 2020-2022 flu compressed the overhaul cycles into one large bank due now, versus being spread over the past two. This is an industry wide problem.

^^ These two are a given but the solution is in place thanks to our MRO facilities and authorities with GE, RR AND PW.

Potential for a two front war, 50/50 at this point. This will result in initial demand destruction, suspension of Pacific flying completely, recalls to active duty for even retirees, conversion to CRAF and potenially SILS in some categories and domestic cargo in others. Think COVID, but munitions, parts and troops in the back instead of masks. Who knows how CRAF will use 5000 (my guess) airliners across the US market.

Aircraft deliveries would end. These facilities and materials assets would likely be converted to 80% war time footing. No one cares about our 223 and trash panda deliveries at this point.

^^ This is not a given, but rhetoric is flaring up. It could happen, maybe it wont. Maybe it will be another decade of "the decade of experiences."

How should management play this? Hire for the unknown and end up with such a surplus that SILS don't even make sense? Force the hand to furlough? Maybe flex summer up 4% on GS, and run a little hot? I surely don't know, neither does anyone here.

BTW, I LOL'd at the 7000 pilot airline concept during Covid. Delta was 7000ish in 2008, 110 NB pilots in LAX, SEA, DTW and MSP didnt even exist, and our NY flying was a fraction of what it is today. 7,000 was never gonna happen, not without a Ch. 11 likely followed by a Ch. 7. No I am not pro-management, but I do understand their lack of a commitment on this one. The data just isn't there.

 

Agreed. Just anecdotal observations, but at least on the ER the rotations did get better initially after the new contract was signed. They were cleaner, less random DHs, less 4 leg days, less ugly penalty laps. That seemed to last about a year, then it's like they just said "screw it" and went back to their old ways, accepting to pay more for the same garbage trips they used to build. Now the 4 leg days are back with a vengeance, and you'll enjoy that FLL penalty lap after flying a transcon from California to ATL. Or fly your transcon to JFK first then ATL. Being so junior in seat I'm like a racoon and get to sort through all the trash to find something tasty on reserve, and end up flying lots of them. Not going to lie EDP has been incredibly lucrative for me last year. If I'm going to fly a garbage trip I'll definitely seek out one that has some, but it does get old after a while. Luckily at times an ugly trip with lots of EDP has saved me from getting it because someone senior will YS it.