American picked up Pan Am’s Miami operation. Delta had a large LGA operation before the Pan Am asset purchase. With the purchase Delta acquired the shuttle and international ops out of JFK.

 

Nah I live in base I’m not crazy. Still though, AUS will become the third hub created by Delta organically.

What Delta has done in the past is completely irrelevant. Many people on here think Delta will (remain or become?) some boutique airline with one hub: ATL.. and that is blatant ignorance. DL is the largest in the Midwest, NYC, LAX, & Southeast... These past base closures are for one, irrelevant. Second, the closure of these bases has made room for new ones “Delta is due for more” argument. All of Delta’s current hubs are completely un-recognizable from what they were years ago - each one in its current state was crafted/developed by Delta; not some other dead carrier. The days of Northwest and other mergers are ancient history in the airlines world and are forever irrelevant. I’ll be here for 35+ years; plenty of time to see Delta, once again, become unrecognizable from what it is today many times over.

Delta, by 2030, will be just under or at a 20,000 pilot airline assuming no black swan with a fleet larger than its ever had. There’s a massive network gap in TX, DL has grown in AUS YoY faster than any station is recent history, its main tenant: WN is weak/headed towards it hubs (DAL/HOU), and the airport is designing itself to support efficient “hub-friendly” operations. No, AUS is not some college down - it was the fastest growing MSA for 12 years and is still among the top with talks of SAT & AUS combining metros in the future (such as DFW). Saturated with HQ’s, tech, gov travel, education, and high spending individuals - hence why Delta is betting big on it.

The “best case” scenario as you pointed out is not split ops with WN. It’s Delta with full control of the BJT at 30+ gates and attempting to take more in B with 250+ daily flight. The likely scenario, which all logic points towards right now, is WN cutting back in AUS after losing FF’s, low LF’s, and poor internal margins when they attempt 18-gate volume in 2030. Delta will continue to win market share month-over-month from WN/AA as they’ve been doing and operate 15 or more gates in 2030. After a 30-40 gate Terminal B Delta will have a larger operation than its past DFW-operation with TATL & TPAC via JV’s and/or DL WB’s (highly rumored DL AUS-CDG soon).

The guys that wanna keep up the claim that Delta hates pilots and will never open new bases are ignorant to say the least. And quite frankly need to get past their child like tantrums that the “company is after them”. That rhetoric gets so old.. I’ve been RR, used plenty of sick time, and constantly get paid correct the first time - DL doesn’t have it out for anyone anymore than UA or AA.

The ground work is clearly being laid in AUS for a hub during a time of record profit/growth. Delta follows the money and when the money justifies a domicile it will happen. Wasting your breath if you think otherwise honestly.

 

Bold assumption. Black swan events are closer to once per decade than once per career. I can't predict when or what, but I'd plan for three over a 30 year career.

 

So you’re young, and ignorant. Glad to have cool aid in your vains. But until we don’t change management, DAL doesn’t like to deal with pilots.

 

I think Hard Landing goes through the order in which the MIA South America routes went through. I believe the order is: Pan-Am, Braniff, Eastern, AA.

 

It takes more than that. It takes a completely different management philosophy. You could economically justify small pilot bases in at least 3 or 4 additional cities today — based on reduced credit, reduced lodging expenditures, and improved IROP recovery alone. Brick-and-mortar CPOs are no longer an essential requirement for a base either, eliminating much of the traditional overhead.

Unfortunately, Delta’s internal structure and management philosophy is not conducive to that at all. You’re making bold assumptions that it will change going forward. Delta’s culture is extremely change-resistant. That resistance has only emboldened over the past 15 years as a result of the company’s success.

Yes, the company is laying the framework for a small AUS hub. That can be instantly upended by any number of black swan events — at least one of which is likely over the long timeframe that it will take to fully establish. Above all, it doesn’t equate to a pilot domicile, even under a best-case growth scenario. That would take a complete management overhaul and internal restructuring to achieve.

It’s great that you’ve been consistently paid correctly the first time. Thousands of pilots haven’t been. That’s not angry conjecture either, it’s well-documented fact.

 

I wish I had that much confidence in my crystal ball. If you are certain these events will unfold, then you should be trying to monetize it. Maybe buy crash pad homes in AUS or something.

 

I was based in MIA 55 years ago, DC-8's and 10's. 727's in '72 (NE)

 

Crash pads are for new hires and commuters. AUS would be a base for locals.

 

Interesting take. Do you think the theoretical AUS base would have fewer commuters than the current average commuters per base?