View Poll Results: 2026 Profit Sharing Guess
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Profit Sharing 26 Rumors and Guesses
01-15-2026 | 04:38 PM
#102
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Joined: Nov 2017
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From: NYC 7ERA
01-15-2026 | 04:40 PM
#103
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Joined: Mar 2015
Posts: 13,215
Likes: 662
From: ir.delta.com
Does anyone have a "by category" 23M7 count for a given month.
I could do a decent Fermi estimate on it.
Lower bound.. Number of 23M7s x 5:15 x a reasonable 30th percentile in category (some super senior 23M7 farmers, some lucky one offs lower)
Say 8 years for NBA, and 12 years for WBA
4 years for NBB, 10 years for WBB
That would give us our lower bound. Considering the median trip is probably 3 days here, 15:45 x number of 23M7s is the more realistic number.
Total cost would probably have a lower bound of 2x the 23m7, and realistic would be 2.5 or so x 23M7, since best case scenario, they are skipping coverage and hitting a RES, but for all the 23M7s that go as IAs or GSs, they are paying 2x on top of the 23M7 payout.
Couple beers into the evening, but If anyone has those numbers handy, I could do some fast math on it.
I could do a decent Fermi estimate on it.
Lower bound.. Number of 23M7s x 5:15 x a reasonable 30th percentile in category (some super senior 23M7 farmers, some lucky one offs lower)
Say 8 years for NBA, and 12 years for WBA
4 years for NBB, 10 years for WBB
That would give us our lower bound. Considering the median trip is probably 3 days here, 15:45 x number of 23M7s is the more realistic number.
Total cost would probably have a lower bound of 2x the 23m7, and realistic would be 2.5 or so x 23M7, since best case scenario, they are skipping coverage and hitting a RES, but for all the 23M7s that go as IAs or GSs, they are paying 2x on top of the 23M7 payout.
Couple beers into the evening, but If anyone has those numbers handy, I could do some fast math on it.
01-15-2026 | 04:47 PM
#104
Moderator
Joined: Sep 2011
Posts: 8,209
Likes: 1,161
Whatever it is, Ed said on the Earnings town hall, "it's got my attention". Getting the CEO's attention in a negative way is REALLY bad.
01-15-2026 | 04:51 PM
#105
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Joined: Nov 2017
Posts: 3,465
Likes: 613
From: NYC 7ERA
Your estimate falls within what I also crunched for November. I think I had 40M as lower bound, 94M as most likely and $150M as not unreasonable. I based mine off 7ER all 3 bases.
01-15-2026 | 04:57 PM
#106
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Joined: Jan 2023
Posts: 3,372
Likes: 812
The only way this was going to end was if the bean counters sounded the alarm on the expenditures. Which they seem to have done. The 200m number is pretty close BTW.
01-15-2026 | 04:58 PM
#107
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Joined: Jan 2023
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Likes: 812
assuming $2000 per day (probably a fair if slightly high bet at $350-400/hour pay scale average), that means 50,000 days of 23m7. granted, i got my share but i don’t think 3 days per pilot was the average in dec across the whole seniority list.
so, the $100m figure is pretty doubtful to me
so, the $100m figure is pretty doubtful to me
01-15-2026 | 05:12 PM
#108
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Joined: Nov 2017
Posts: 3,465
Likes: 613
From: NYC 7ERA
Let's use the median seniority 7ER pilot (me, I'm 51% on the list)
EDIT: THIS WAS WORKING TO QUANTIFY $100m/MO
Last year, my hourly rate was $374.50
5:15 x that is $1965
But that's just the 23M7 "harmed pilot"
75%+ of the 23M7s I checked went as GS or IA. Let's just say the RES ones were free. That's an additional 1.5 x the $1965
$4913 per day of 23M7 coverage. Then there's the 17% 401k/MBCP
$5748 per 23M7 trip-day MINIMUM.
3 day median trip.
$17,243 per 23M7'd trip.
That's 5800 23M7d trips.
That's around 1 day of flights.
1 out of 30 trips being 23M7d vs what I saw when I checked 7ER ATL/NYC/LAX is well within the realm of reasonableness.
EDIT: THIS WAS WORKING TO QUANTIFY $100m/MO
Last year, my hourly rate was $374.50
5:15 x that is $1965
But that's just the 23M7 "harmed pilot"
75%+ of the 23M7s I checked went as GS or IA. Let's just say the RES ones were free. That's an additional 1.5 x the $1965
$4913 per day of 23M7 coverage. Then there's the 17% 401k/MBCP
$5748 per 23M7 trip-day MINIMUM.
3 day median trip.
$17,243 per 23M7'd trip.
That's 5800 23M7d trips.
That's around 1 day of flights.
1 out of 30 trips being 23M7d vs what I saw when I checked 7ER ATL/NYC/LAX is well within the realm of reasonableness.
Last edited by CX500T; 01-15-2026 at 05:41 PM.
01-15-2026 | 05:18 PM
#109
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Mar 2015
Posts: 13,215
Likes: 662
From: ir.delta.com
oh god not this again. You will enjoy ONE contract cycle with higher wages. All subsequent contracts will then match united and american and that ps check in febuary that could give you 30 years of extra money will have been invested for just a boost in one 3 year cycle. Auto no vote if they touch my ps
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