I like your optimism, but oil prices tend to rise quickly but go down slowly. Iran only pumps ~4% of the world oil supply, but here we are with oil basically tripling. All they need to do is send a few drones to hit ships in the Strait every week or so and that will stop the traffic or raise the risk premium making it expensive to ship through there. Doesn't take much to launch a drone from what I gather.

 

Except he’s correct.

 

Theres a boat load of Kiowas in almost flyable condition that could solve this real easy I bet.

 

That is true. Just as a data point, missile barrages from Iran are down 90% from the first day of this 'conflict', and drone attacks down 70%. In short, they just don't have the resources to keep it up. And the security apparatus that has kept the IRGC in control for so long is beginning to show signs of fracture. Soldiers, police and IRGC members are starting to abandon their posts. Once the enforcement arm of the IRGC is weakened the remaining 90mm Iranians may just show up en force. I mean, the president of Iran apologized to all of their neighbors for shooting that them, and sadi they would stop. Then they kept doing it. Iran's parliament told him to shut up and then called for his removal. To save all the specifics, there is a leadership vacuum/power struggle going on over there. But none of that matters if they have nothing to shoot at their neighbors, which the data indicate is highly likely to be the case.

Like I said, there are a lot of layers to this onion, but there are early indications that this will turn in to a internal struggle for survival and control inside Iran, and maybe sooner than later.

 

I'm certainly not hoping for a reappearance of the old aviation industry Black Swan, particularly for the sake of the new guys. However, as a guy with just a couple years left, if they offered an early out program similar to the last one with pay, medical, and travel, I'd jump on that like a starving man would pounce on a baloney and cheese sandwich. Just sayin

 

What’s to offer? I disagree. I don’t consider this the stage to air political differences.

 

If you believed that you wouldn’t have responded at all.

and nothing of what I said was political.

“LOL”

 

This might be all true but we are talking about the strait and a radical group threatening one attack on a ship. That is all it takes. It could be one guy in a cave, one mine, one drone. That is the issue. It only takes one. If
it were so easy to keep ships safe they would have already done it.

 

what must be understood is that that Iran itself needs the Strait opened almost more than anyone. The overwhelming majority of their economy is based in getting their own oil to China. Who, by the way, also wants the Strait open. They are strangling themselves and will need air before everyone else.

all of this is an existential threat to the regime itself, and a short term strategy to cause pain BECAUSE they’re out of plays. Not a long term plan.

 

Kit Darby is salivating right now.

"The United States has spent EIGHT TRILLION DOLLARS fighting and policing in the Middle East. Thousands of our Great Soldiers have died or been badly wounded. Millions of people have died on the other side. GOING INTO THE MIDDLE EAST IS THE WORST DECISION EVER MADE....."

09 Oct 19