as long as tb12 is still getting paid, I’m good.

 

This. I think you’ll see a softening of demand in Q2.

 

The current spot price for jet fuel is 4.56 per gallon. It was 2.00 a gallon in Dec. Doesn’t matter how many tickets you sell unless you raise fares substantially you won’t be making money. Delta’s average fuel price in 2025 was 2.30 a gallon for a net 2025 fuel bill of 9.8 billion dollars. Average spot price for fuel in 2025 was 2.11 per gallon.

 

True, but... We won't know if this current spike in prices is persistent or just a flash in the pan for a bit yet. Obviously, if it stays high, it will have large ramifications. We just don't know that yet.

Plan, prepare? Sure. Panic? Not time for that yet, if ever.

 

Panic is not a very good business strategy… but I just fly planes.

 

Most experts from both “sides” of the political spectrum aren’t seeing a scenario in which the current conflict will be over quickly. Trump can call this a, “limited excursion”, but Iran views this as total war and their regime won’t be ousted anytime soon.

The Strait will remain threatened unless we put boots on the ground. It cannot be secured from the air alone. Boots on the ground cause further spiraling and deeper involvement.

We have a 4-6 week cushion from the release of the SPR. After that the American economy will be far less insulated. If this persists for months then we’ll see large disruption of supply chains ala Covid-era and massive inflation ala post-Covid… We aren’t in panic mode yet, but it sure does feel a lot like we’re all doing our best to be positive about something that there just isn’t much reason to feel positive about.

 

Maybe a few. But I can’t imagine mass quantities of people buying tix as a forward looking petro arbitrage pseudo investment play.

 

Inflation hasn’t left, but we will start feeling it more than before. Most Americans are struggling, but we loveeeee to buy stuff.

 

Even if fuel stays high and some travel dwindles, it could still not be that bad for some airlines. Oil went to the inflation adjusted equivalent of around $220/bbl, during a financial crisis and a recession, with multiple large wars going on, a merger happening, and the fleet of planes most legacies had (especially DL) were MUCH less efficient, with the industry less consolidated. And no refinery either.

Hundreds of 88/DC9/more 757’s than today, 4 engine whales, no NEO’s or MAX’s (industry wide) and the skies darkened with grossly inefficient 50 seat RJ’s, a ruthless and irrational yield trashing ULCC in ATL, one exceptionally well run LCC with a multi billion dollar fuel hedging head start with big ambitions to bury a legacy or two, all with the industry awash in venture capital for any and every start up fantasy imaginable (domestic, premium international, etc) for rich people who like to play with airplanes.

Yet the industry survived and became stronger than ever. Most attribute the now semi-common “capacity discipline” mentality to that era as well. And at least one ULCC went under because of it (SkyBus, which, were it not for that, could have hundreds of planes by now). No one is saying there’s not some headwinds at the moment. But the industry has never, nor will ever, ride only the boom years and nothing else. IMO no one should be lifting the guard on the panic button yet. Well except maybe the 23M7 farmers lol.

 

https://www.reuters.com/business/uni...ar-2026-03-20/

Kirby obviously sees longer term effects from all of this. Makes sense they'd be the first to cut as they're the one expanding the most.