I'm curious (if the TA is ratified, and I'm a NO vote BTW) where the line will be drawn on "critical category staffing" for the early out? DALPA has already said that we are going to lose 300 (give or take) jobs to efficiencies during this agreement.

Here is how I see staffing going down the next few years under the TA:

1 - We lose 300 jobs to efficiencies right off the bat.
2 - IF we get lucky, we will have 250 or so early outs. Call it a wash, BEST CASE?
3 - The airline is still a bit over staffed.
4 - Military guys and a handful of furlough bypasses want to come back.
5 - As the senior folks leave, many of the spots on the fat international categories aren't backfilled.
6 - Folks that took the early out constitute the majority of the guys that would have been leaving in the next three years anyways, so its unlikely we will see many retirements within three years of the early out.

This takes us through mid 2013.

7 - The 737-900s and the 717s start showing up about the same time in 3Q 2013. People will have been displaced off the 757 prior to this, making that airplane that much more senior. The 717s we get in 2013 will be a total wash as the DC9s finally fly west. The only positives we can hope for here is that domestic demand is up and we keep a few more 757s than we get 900s - I'm not planning on it.
8 - Its the end of 2013 and pilot block hours are very similar to current levels. No immediate retirements on the horizon (everyone that would have been going just took the early out).
9 - Now its early 2014 and all we can do is HOPE that the 717s were indeed growth for mainline (in place of the 50 seaters). After about the first 10 (of 2014) or so are delivered, the airline is just about properly staffed. BEST CASE, beyond the 25th-30th 717 that we deliver, we should look for growth of pilot block hours requiring new hires.
10 - They MIGHT hire late 2013 to early 2014 for the 600-750 (SWAG) jobs the remaining 58 717s bring? IF they aren't displacing off of widebodies due to lack of international demand.
11 - After the hiring is done for those spots completed by mid 2015, we MIGHT start to see the retirements slowly start back up and really ramp up at the end of the decade (that's still 8 years away folks).


Below is a list of the categories guys hold that are due to retire in the next 4 years (ending June 1, 2016) based on age 65. I estimate they represent very likely candidates for the early out. Obviously, the numbers have to be taken in context. Age only is considered, not seniority. Some may be old but junior and ineligible for the package. Certainly, there will be a few pilots less than 61 years old interested in early outing. I was just curious if I could find a category that would be really short with the early out. Based on age only, it was much more spread out than I thought. If a category isn't listed, there are no retirements from it in the next 4 years. I've listed a % for any category that has more than 10% retiring from there.

ATL777A - 55 - 28%
ATL777B - 6
ATL765A - 22 - 24%
ATL765B - 2
ATL7ERA - 25
ATL7ERB - 10
ATL330A - 8
ATL330B - 6
ATL767A - 8
ATL767B - 4
ATL320A - 5
ATL320B - 1
ATL73NA - 13
ATL73NB - 2
ATLDC9A - 1
ATLM88A - 10
ATLM88B - 9
CVG73NB - 1
DTW777A - 7 - 10%
DTW777B - 1
DTW744A - 31 - 15%
DTW744B - 16
DTW7ERA - 7
DTW7ERB - 4
DTW330A - 19 - 12%
DTW330B - 9
DTW320A - 10
DTW320B - 1
DTWDC9A - 1
LAX7ERA - 9
LAX7ERB - 6
LAX73NA - 2
MSP7ERA - 11
MSP7ERB - 5
MSP320A - 18
MSP320B - 3
MSPDC9A - 4
MSPM88A - 7
NYC765A - 4
NYC765B - 6
NYC7ERA - 20
NYC7ERB - 3
NYC320A - 3
NYC73NA - 9
SEA7ERA - 7
SEA7ERB - 1
SEA330A - 10 - 10%
SEA330B - 6
SLC7ERA - 8
SLC7ERB - 6
SLC320A - 4
SLC320B - 1
SLC73NA - 1

SICA - 44
SICB - 20

TOTAL =503

Is it a good enough read to at least get you to reconsider your YES vote? For your old pal Carl?

Carl

Yes, the MEC chairman fielded that one specifically at a road show. There are NO widebody orders or acquisitions in the company's fleet plan. None.

Carl

Everyone needs to remember this if the TA gets voted in. Because people will really be angry at DALPA when they see how the company interprets the weak language. That anger will be responded to by DALPA saying: "Hey, don't blame us...YOU voted for it!"

We have to remember the HUGE role DALPA played in getting this "highly educated" man's vote. We cannot let DALPA shirk its responsibilities when the fallout happens.

Carl

You are looking down the road, but not noticing the broken down cars next to us. (US,UAL,AA). I think we all deserve a 50% raise and zero RJs flying for us, but that just isn't reality. Many on here think they deserve a homerun, but in reality, a double here or single there will lead us to our pay dreams, but over short contracts over time. The rally cry on here is loud, but talk to the NMB chief, and she would probably tell you to hush! Attend a roadshow and bring up these same concerns.

Addict!

Carl

Maybe he was just calling out Elvis for having attended that knucklehead college where the Vols play.

You think that will bait him out of hibernation FTB?

Carl

Dude, that sure sounds like personal experience right there...

Carl

Although I never thought this TA would bring restoration, I thought it would be a restorative contract. Using the "moneyball"/ short term mindset, where do we end up as a pilot group in a decade? Once we have sold back productivity, profit sharing, scope and captain seats for small pay raises what will we have left? At some point the company will no longer be able to squeeze blood from a stone and then we WILL have to deal will the FEAR of a full section 6.......

So from the latest Negotiators' Notepad am I supposed to read this an improvement to reserve rules? The example given seems to be total snake oil salesman BS in an attempt to make me overlook the ALV+15 exploitation that is being enabled....


Max Reserve
Currently, a reserve pilot can be assigned flying not to exceed the ALV.* Once his projection is within two hours of the ALV, he is considered “FULL,” and is no longer required to remain on call for the rest of the bid period.* The TA will increase the amount of flying to which a reserve pilot can be assigned to ALV + 15:00.* However, he will be considered FULL when his projection equals or exceeds his reserve guarantee.*
*
Consider, for example, a pilot who has two weeks of vacation and is awarded a reserve line.* His reserve guarantee will be set at approximately 38:00 (depending upon the ALV and the number of days in the bid period), and his line will contain approximately nine on-call days.* Under the current PWA, this pilot must remain on call until his projection is within two hours of the ALV.* Under the TA, he will be FULL once his projection reaches 38:00.