Line holder's are not immune either. It's amazing how quickly friendly scheduling/mgmt relations can change when staffing gets tight. I better not hear any complaining from the other side of the flight deck when things get turned upside down and they miss their Saturday tailgate.

 

Not a single time. I don't have any problem with working more. I'd prefer to, honestly. However, as retirements and the resulting movement that we have all been waiting the last decade for finally starts to happen, is that really the best time to concede work rules that make it easier to maintain a stagnant seniority list?

Maybe I'm paranoid, but I get a bad feeling about this TA with regard to stagnation. Outsourcing more 76-seaters? Stagnation. Increasing efficiency for reserves? Stagnation. Block hour ratios that ignore the international fleet? Potential severe stagnation.

Parking 50-seaters is the only potential saving grace I can see, and our only source of leverage and it seems we are giving it away for a '717 for DC-9' swap (with a few extra 717's), and a meager pay raise. The early outs? In 3-5 years they're almost certainly a wash as they likely would have retired by then anyway. The changes to scope, and work-rules, however will be with us until, at best our next negotiation, at worst; the long haul.

 

Why we should vote YES:

There are two arenas of ideas: What is right or ideal and what is real world. Let's start in the world of academia. Pilots have lost their pensions; our buying power is 1/3 of what is was in 1989 and we gave more in BK than any other employee group, all of whom (except us) are back to pre-bk wages, including management. Our jobs have been outsourced to the unprofitable point that a whole new pilot world has been created since 9/11 where 1/4 of all flights have pilots making 25k or less. Food stamp wages, literally, and yet the DCI carriers can only survive with mainline subsidies. (Note out to any management reading our boards, stop hiring these Ivy league geniuses, they're idiots!)

Real world: Management is desperate to get out of 50 seat jets as they are major anchors on profits. Guys are worried over the easing over the 76 jet but let me just say don't worry so much about this. The old catch 22 of be careful of what you wish for is coming back to Airline management. They changed the numeration of our industry but in doing so they emptied the pipeline of future professionals who have looked at the numbers and have walked away. Don't believe me? Look at Purdue, North Dakota, Embry Riddle, American Flyers. All have attendance at all time lows. When the retirements come and the 1500 hr mins hit, the airlines will be screaming for relief.

Pay: Sure, okay, no doubt I have many professional friends, as well, who can't believe that an international 7er capt makes only 181 hr or 90 an hour on a 40hr/week pay scale. Our worth, our value, what we do is not defined by what we are being paid. The synergies the company has enjoyed, the learning by memo, the merging of cultures (hey, we may even see Carl and Slowplay drinking a beer together in Nrt with Acl buying) has allowed Delta to post 3B in profits in 18 months. But, with all that being said, the world we live in values cheap tickets, a competitor desirous to have its employees work for rj wages, Europe on the financial brink, war with Iran, etc. So, being a product of the public schools, the way I see it is the company is offering us a 16% raise in next 18 months without a fight. Keeping it simple, from the "Art of War"... fight no fight unless the outcome is assured. I say vote yes. Rome wasn't built in a day.

 

So giving up work rules that point heavily toward more stagnation and letting more large RJ's that can do our flying forever shouldn't worry us because the pipeline of pilots is empty. Uhh I think I'll go with plan A. Vote this POS down.

 

Another Sun Tzu quote: "All warfare is based on deception."

 

Now we're just justifying why we aren't worth what we're asking for in the survey. Just a few months ago, many here were touting "Time to get paid, with interest"... It isn't too quick for us to see a few shiny coins in this TA, and stop looking at the long term impact of this TA.

Do you think this TA is only 18 months long? We are gonna have to expand that much negotiating capital to, again, "recapture" everything this TA fails, and guess what, in 18 months, we definitely won't know what kind of environment we'll be in.

Our fight for QOL, pay, and every other improvements are a constant battle. We drop the ball in this one, and we're gonna reap the results in the next TA, the one after that, and so forth. We deserve the 16% raise and much much more.

 

If we add more 76 seaters, but park twice the number of 50 seaters, where do you think the 70 or 76 seaters will fly? Maybe to places the 50 seater couldn't make money because it was too small or the CASM was too high because of high oil? If we get 88 717s, where do you think they will fly? They replace 21 DC9s, but then add 67 more 717s. Maybe they will fly on current 76 seater routes?

The ratios cover domestic flying, primarily because RJs don't do pond crossings. International JVs and code shares, along with domestic code shares like Alaska, also improved in this TA. Please call a rep or attend a roadshow if you have any more questions or concerns.

 

Look around at the other legacies. How are they doing? We all want restoration, but when you're the only one fighting for more, while the others are fighting each other, then your leverage is weakened tremendously. The raise is actually 19.7% over 3 years, along with lots of other improvements. If you want a 40% raise and park every RJ, it's just not going to happen. Negotiations will hault, and the NMB will get involved and tell us to get real. They already said pattern bargains will rule the day, with UA/AA/US being the only ones to pattern off of, no retro pay, and to get in line (over 100 current mediation cases in front of us) to get it done. That could take more than 2 years. Call any rep and ask about that.

 

Oil at $84/barrel & falling.

 

Shorten the amenable date to December 31, 2013 and I MIGHT be pushed a little toward MAYBE from HE11 NO!