Any "Latest & Greatest" about Delta?
05-31-2012, 06:30 PM
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Joined APC: Feb 2007
Posts: 1,044
I'm curious (if the TA is ratified, and I'm a NO vote BTW) where the line will be drawn on "critical category staffing" for the early out? DALPA has already said that we are going to lose 300 (give or take) jobs to efficiencies during this agreement.
Here is how I see staffing going down the next few years under the TA:
1 - We lose 300 jobs to efficiencies right off the bat.
2 - IF we get lucky, we will have 250 or so early outs. Call it a wash, BEST CASE?
3 - The airline is still a bit over staffed.
4 - Military guys and a handful of furlough bypasses want to come back.
5 - As the senior folks leave, many of the spots on the fat international categories aren't backfilled.
6 - Folks that took the early out constitute the majority of the guys that would have been leaving in the next three years anyways, so its unlikely we will see many retirements within three years of the early out.
This takes us through mid 2013.
7 - The 737-900s and the 717s start showing up about the same time in 3Q 2013. People will have been displaced off the 757 prior to this, making that airplane that much more senior. The 717s we get in 2013 will be a total wash as the DC9s finally fly west. The only positives we can hope for here is that domestic demand is up and we keep a few more 757s than we get 900s - I'm not planning on it.
8 - Its the end of 2013 and pilot block hours are very similar to current levels. No immediate retirements on the horizon (everyone that would have been going just took the early out).
9 - Now its early 2014 and all we can do is HOPE that the 717s were indeed growth for mainline (in place of the 50 seaters). After about the first 10 (of 2014) or so are delivered, the airline is just about properly staffed. BEST CASE, beyond the 25th-30th 717 that we deliver, we should look for growth of pilot block hours requiring new hires.
10 - They MIGHT hire late 2013 to early 2014 for the 600-750 (SWAG) jobs the remaining 58 717s bring? IF they aren't displacing off of widebodies due to lack of international demand.
11 - After the hiring is done for those spots completed by mid 2015, we MIGHT start to see the retirements slowly start back up and really ramp up at the end of the decade (that's still 8 years away folks).
Below is a list of the categories guys hold that are due to retire in the next 4 years (ending June 1, 2016) based on age 65. I estimate they represent very likely candidates for the early out. Obviously, the numbers have to be taken in context. Age only is considered, not seniority. Some may be old but junior and ineligible for the package. Certainly, there will be a few pilots less than 61 years old interested in early outing. I was just curious if I could find a category that would be really short with the early out. Based on age only, it was much more spread out than I thought. If a category isn't listed, there are no retirements from it in the next 4 years. I've listed a % for any category that has more than 10% retiring from there.
ATL777A - 55 - 28%
ATL777B - 6
ATL765A - 22 - 24%
ATL765B - 2
ATL7ERA - 25
ATL7ERB - 10
ATL330A - 8
ATL330B - 6
ATL767A - 8
ATL767B - 4
ATL320A - 5
ATL320B - 1
ATL73NA - 13
ATL73NB - 2
ATLDC9A - 1
ATLM88A - 10
ATLM88B - 9
CVG73NB - 1
DTW777A - 7 - 10%
DTW777B - 1
DTW744A - 31 - 15%
DTW744B - 16
DTW7ERA - 7
DTW7ERB - 4
DTW330A - 19 - 12%
DTW330B - 9
DTW320A - 10
DTW320B - 1
DTWDC9A - 1
LAX7ERA - 9
LAX7ERB - 6
LAX73NA - 2
MSP7ERA - 11
MSP7ERB - 5
MSP320A - 18
MSP320B - 3
MSPDC9A - 4
MSPM88A - 7
NYC765A - 4
NYC765B - 6
NYC7ERA - 20
NYC7ERB - 3
NYC320A - 3
NYC73NA - 9
SEA7ERA - 7
SEA7ERB - 1
SEA330A - 10 - 10%
SEA330B - 6
SLC7ERA - 8
SLC7ERB - 6
SLC320A - 4
SLC320B - 1
SLC73NA - 1
SICA - 44
SICB - 20
TOTAL =503
Here is how I see staffing going down the next few years under the TA:
1 - We lose 300 jobs to efficiencies right off the bat.
2 - IF we get lucky, we will have 250 or so early outs. Call it a wash, BEST CASE?
3 - The airline is still a bit over staffed.
4 - Military guys and a handful of furlough bypasses want to come back.
5 - As the senior folks leave, many of the spots on the fat international categories aren't backfilled.
6 - Folks that took the early out constitute the majority of the guys that would have been leaving in the next three years anyways, so its unlikely we will see many retirements within three years of the early out.
This takes us through mid 2013.
7 - The 737-900s and the 717s start showing up about the same time in 3Q 2013. People will have been displaced off the 757 prior to this, making that airplane that much more senior. The 717s we get in 2013 will be a total wash as the DC9s finally fly west. The only positives we can hope for here is that domestic demand is up and we keep a few more 757s than we get 900s - I'm not planning on it.
8 - Its the end of 2013 and pilot block hours are very similar to current levels. No immediate retirements on the horizon (everyone that would have been going just took the early out).
9 - Now its early 2014 and all we can do is HOPE that the 717s were indeed growth for mainline (in place of the 50 seaters). After about the first 10 (of 2014) or so are delivered, the airline is just about properly staffed. BEST CASE, beyond the 25th-30th 717 that we deliver, we should look for growth of pilot block hours requiring new hires.
10 - They MIGHT hire late 2013 to early 2014 for the 600-750 (SWAG) jobs the remaining 58 717s bring? IF they aren't displacing off of widebodies due to lack of international demand.
11 - After the hiring is done for those spots completed by mid 2015, we MIGHT start to see the retirements slowly start back up and really ramp up at the end of the decade (that's still 8 years away folks).
Below is a list of the categories guys hold that are due to retire in the next 4 years (ending June 1, 2016) based on age 65. I estimate they represent very likely candidates for the early out. Obviously, the numbers have to be taken in context. Age only is considered, not seniority. Some may be old but junior and ineligible for the package. Certainly, there will be a few pilots less than 61 years old interested in early outing. I was just curious if I could find a category that would be really short with the early out. Based on age only, it was much more spread out than I thought. If a category isn't listed, there are no retirements from it in the next 4 years. I've listed a % for any category that has more than 10% retiring from there.
ATL777A - 55 - 28%
ATL777B - 6
ATL765A - 22 - 24%
ATL765B - 2
ATL7ERA - 25
ATL7ERB - 10
ATL330A - 8
ATL330B - 6
ATL767A - 8
ATL767B - 4
ATL320A - 5
ATL320B - 1
ATL73NA - 13
ATL73NB - 2
ATLDC9A - 1
ATLM88A - 10
ATLM88B - 9
CVG73NB - 1
DTW777A - 7 - 10%
DTW777B - 1
DTW744A - 31 - 15%
DTW744B - 16
DTW7ERA - 7
DTW7ERB - 4
DTW330A - 19 - 12%
DTW330B - 9
DTW320A - 10
DTW320B - 1
DTWDC9A - 1
LAX7ERA - 9
LAX7ERB - 6
LAX73NA - 2
MSP7ERA - 11
MSP7ERB - 5
MSP320A - 18
MSP320B - 3
MSPDC9A - 4
MSPM88A - 7
NYC765A - 4
NYC765B - 6
NYC7ERA - 20
NYC7ERB - 3
NYC320A - 3
NYC73NA - 9
SEA7ERA - 7
SEA7ERB - 1
SEA330A - 10 - 10%
SEA330B - 6
SLC7ERA - 8
SLC7ERB - 6
SLC320A - 4
SLC320B - 1
SLC73NA - 1
SICA - 44
SICB - 20
TOTAL =503
05-31-2012, 07:21 PM
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Position: 747-400 Captain
Posts: 12,487
Originally Posted by FIIGMO
Now that is a good read.........
Carl
05-31-2012, 07:23 PM
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Position: 747-400 Captain
Posts: 12,487
Originally Posted by casual observer
anybody else heard a rumor about 777's or heavy airbus acquistions
Carl
05-31-2012, 07:30 PM
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Position: 747-400 Captain
Posts: 12,487
Originally Posted by Elvis90
Just arrived in ATL for my first day as an ATL-based MD-88 FO. I happened to walk in the pilot ops area during ALPA's presentation of the TA. Lots of contentious questions.
I was waiting by the hotel van area and a captain sat down next to me. We struck up a conversation about the TA. I asked him about his opinion, and he is voting yes. I listened while he talked about scope & pay saying that this is good enough. Then he asked me my opinion.
Boy, did he get hot under the collar...even began comparing our education levels. I was being respectful, but his responses were typically, "didn't you hear what ALPA said?"
The 50-seat jet issue is the big question...he talked about trading them for 76-seaters...why not flown by Delta pilots? Why not trade with Bombardier to get C-series jets flown by Delta pilots? The company has stated that 717's are replacing 50-seaters' lift. I think they could do the same in lieu of 76-seaters.
Then we talked about inflation. He did not want to discuss it. I said in effect, we're getting a 10% pay raise at the end of 3 years due to inflation.
We discussed the fact that the company approached ALPA for a deal...and if we wait 6 months it all falls through in his mind.
I shook his hand and thanked him for chatting after my van showed up.
I was waiting by the hotel van area and a captain sat down next to me. We struck up a conversation about the TA. I asked him about his opinion, and he is voting yes. I listened while he talked about scope & pay saying that this is good enough. Then he asked me my opinion.
Boy, did he get hot under the collar...even began comparing our education levels. I was being respectful, but his responses were typically, "didn't you hear what ALPA said?"
The 50-seat jet issue is the big question...he talked about trading them for 76-seaters...why not flown by Delta pilots? Why not trade with Bombardier to get C-series jets flown by Delta pilots? The company has stated that 717's are replacing 50-seaters' lift. I think they could do the same in lieu of 76-seaters.
Then we talked about inflation. He did not want to discuss it. I said in effect, we're getting a 10% pay raise at the end of 3 years due to inflation.
We discussed the fact that the company approached ALPA for a deal...and if we wait 6 months it all falls through in his mind.
I shook his hand and thanked him for chatting after my van showed up.
We have to remember the HUGE role DALPA played in getting this "highly educated" man's vote. We cannot let DALPA shirk its responsibilities when the fallout happens.
Carl
05-31-2012, 07:30 PM
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Joined APC: Jul 2006
Position: Space Shuttle PIC
Posts: 2,007
Originally Posted by acl65pilot
Great post and I too am looking down the road and what this TA does and does not do for us.
Right now I am far from convinced that this is the best we can do nor am I convinced that we will need a follow on TA with a merger.
Btw, you are in this boat too!
Right now I am far from convinced that this is the best we can do nor am I convinced that we will need a follow on TA with a merger.
Btw, you are in this boat too!
05-31-2012, 07:33 PM
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Joined APC: Apr 2008
Position: 747-400 Captain
Posts: 12,487
Originally Posted by Elvis90
1000th post!!! Woohoo, a milestone!
Carl
05-31-2012, 07:38 PM
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Position: 747-400 Captain
Posts: 12,487
Originally Posted by forgot to bid
Great job Elvis.
Out of curiosity, what was the education thing about??
Out of curiosity, what was the education thing about??
You think that will bait him out of hibernation FTB?
Carl
05-31-2012, 07:40 PM
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Joined APC: Apr 2008
Position: 747-400 Captain
Posts: 12,487
Originally Posted by nwaf16dude
Yep...it's like when you had your eye on a vette, but you have to buy a mini-van because your wife is about to have another kid that you let yourself get talked into...
Carl
05-31-2012, 07:42 PM
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Apr 2008
Posts: 478
Although I never thought this TA would bring restoration, I thought it would be a restorative contract. Using the "moneyball"/ short term mindset, where do we end up as a pilot group in a decade? Once we have sold back productivity, profit sharing, scope and captain seats for small pay raises what will we have left? At some point the company will no longer be able to squeeze blood from a stone and then we WILL have to deal will the FEAR of a full section 6.......
05-31-2012, 07:44 PM
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Joined APC: Jan 2012
Position: MD musical chairs
Posts: 239
So from the latest Negotiators' Notepad am I supposed to read this an improvement to reserve rules? The example given seems to be total snake oil salesman BS in an attempt to make me overlook the ALV+15 exploitation that is being enabled....
Max Reserve
Currently, a reserve pilot can be assigned flying not to exceed the ALV.* Once his projection is within two hours of the ALV, he is considered “FULL,” and is no longer required to remain on call for the rest of the bid period.* The TA will increase the amount of flying to which a reserve pilot can be assigned to ALV + 15:00.* However, he will be considered FULL when his projection equals or exceeds his reserve guarantee.*
*
Consider, for example, a pilot who has two weeks of vacation and is awarded a reserve line.* His reserve guarantee will be set at approximately 38:00 (depending upon the ALV and the number of days in the bid period), and his line will contain approximately nine on-call days.* Under the current PWA, this pilot must remain on call until his projection is within two hours of the ALV.* Under the TA, he will be FULL once his projection reaches 38:00.
Max Reserve
Currently, a reserve pilot can be assigned flying not to exceed the ALV.* Once his projection is within two hours of the ALV, he is considered “FULL,” and is no longer required to remain on call for the rest of the bid period.* The TA will increase the amount of flying to which a reserve pilot can be assigned to ALV + 15:00.* However, he will be considered FULL when his projection equals or exceeds his reserve guarantee.*
*
Consider, for example, a pilot who has two weeks of vacation and is awarded a reserve line.* His reserve guarantee will be set at approximately 38:00 (depending upon the ALV and the number of days in the bid period), and his line will contain approximately nine on-call days.* Under the current PWA, this pilot must remain on call until his projection is within two hours of the ALV.* Under the TA, he will be FULL once his projection reaches 38:00.
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