I propose a one underboob shot per page minimum.

 

Sailingfun is correct on the numbers, but does not tell the whole story.

To sum up your question, you are asking; "Where is the bottom? When do things turn around? When do we hire?" The answer seems to be, "who knows."

Consolidation is a going to continue according to Delta's senior management. On our own, we see "Capacity reductions (as) leverage" to increase prices and make greater profits.

Management is not talking about merger scenarios, but if something like that should happen I'd expect a 40 to 60% reduction in whatever we acquire, or if we get acquired, out of our network. Northwest / Delta was about as painless a merger as could be achieved, yet we are still, what, a 25% smaller airline than our post bankruptcy footprint, which itself is reduced from our peak.

As Sailingfun points out, we are going to see a bump from 717 flying, as we recover some of what had been outsourced. But, aside from the approximately 400 Captains that will get back to their DC9 equivalent seat, there is not a lot of upward movement. Not that I'm complaining, the unity created by doing our own flying is important also.

My projections all had 2013 as the post merger turn around. Five years for some of us to get back to "status quo." That is not going to happen. Still, we have a lot of good things on the horizon:

• Atlanta terminal F finished
• JFK Terminal Expansion coming on line
• Up gauged LGA flying
• Perhaps an increase in Pacific flying
• Aircraft coming out of mod lines
• and slightly closer to the date the effective measurement period of the AF/KLM JV
• 717 / 737-900 arrivals

But, some other indicators I watch are showing a slow down in the US economy this fall and the network / marketing people who make these decisions for Delta have not said anything positive recently.

So ... who knows? Management seems very happy to run Delta with a smaller footprint, especially if they can extract more revenue from it.

 

I remember in 2009 when we started to hire. Everyone said the same thing. 200 new hires later, we stopped hiring.

 

We are taking delivery of 88 100 seat aircraft to replace DCI flying. Delta staffs narrow body aircraft at 12 to 13 pilots per aircraft.

 

So you believe we will be growing consolidated seating capacity?

 

How many are guaranteed to be guaranteed growth? Can we make staffing projections without the actual fleet plan or contractual guarantees?

 

Well we are starting to see the bottom WRT to increasing PRASM through capacity reduction. IOW, shrinking to profitability isn't working anymore. Taking that into consideration it will be interesting to see how RA and the gang respond to the LCCs refusal to join in on the latest fare increases.

 

Bar;

Super post. I also thought 2013 would be the turn around. Time will tell, but frankly, I'm pretty sure the macro economy is not ready.

 

Angela Merkle, Cover Girl



Frankly, it makes sense. There is no good reason a profligate Greek should enjoy a thrifty German's credit.

IMHO, this will be good for Delta. Call it "the economic disaster tourism market."

 

FWIW: A buddy of mine looking to get hired talked with one of our hiring department (LAX73A) members at the OBAP Conference. She said to expect hiring in the spring and that initially the 717 would staff at 9 crews per jet (sounds like a lot since current domestic is around 6(?)). But we are still waiting for Network's block hour plan...

Every six months or so I get something to look forward to, only to see it turn into burning embers...