I agree Elvis, this summer could be ugly. Is what's really scary is that crew planning or someone said the 88's were actually overstaffed? If in fact the new contract and the ALV15 is the cause of fewer bodies on reserve, thus the ones left have more flying, we might see reserve slip junior again.

Only when flights are cancelled and too many greenslips are going out will the writing be on the wall for hiring.

 

If anyone can pull the number of 88A's on RES in ATL a year ago vs. today I think we will see a significant decrease.

In regards to the contract, I often hear guys say that they voted yes because they didn't think we could get more. I think it's becoming apparent that the reason to vote no was that we gave too much!

 

That's what I read. The 757-200ERs(ex TWA birds) that we use mainly for Transcons, as well as some Africa & Europe destinations will have lie flat seats installed.

 

There are three steps before hiring that haven't happened yet...
1. Lots of cancellations for lack of crews
2. Accuse the pilots of a "sick-out"
3. Blame it on mil leave. As far as I know, only NWA used that last one.

 

Correct. And some 767ERs will be reconfigured in a high density configuration for island destinations out of Japan.

 

I think there will be a lot less NYC 7ER displacements then you think. There may be some, particularly as a result of ATL guys coming North. As a matter of fact the latest Crew Resources news stated the category was overstaffed, but they were trying to figure out whether they needed to ADD 7ER FOs.

Only time will tell.

 

Like the domestic birds? 261 pax with no business class?

 

Elvis, just to make sure you're ATL 88B right?

Anyways, if so, they cut reserves. In January we had 103, Feb 83 and Mar 86. They went from having 20% of the 518-530 pilots on reserve to 16%. In most months we have had 100 pilots or so on reserve. I know it fluctuates but I've been sitting intentionally reserve on this thing for 4 years and around 20% or so has been the norm as far as I can remember.

If I take an unscientific incomplete snapshot of the last day of the month and compare, they're getting more flying out of each reserve pilot. Those with RAWs greater than 60 points went from just 82% of the sampled pilot group in January to 100% in February. It shows in January 21% of the pilots with 0 SCs, February shows 0%. Pilots with more than 30 hours of flying went from 55% to 77% and the number of pilots just in bucket 1 dropped from 30% to 3%.

That's just a snapshot. But what makes sense is with fewer reserves, each one flies more. I'm sure the goal is to get RES hours up a lot higher than they have been. With lower ALVs the number of lines increases in the winter and drops back in the summer. So I don't think we'll have 16% on RES this summer, but I doubt this time we'll have 20% either. Something closer to 16%.

 

The thing about hours on domestic reserve, we all know there are a lot of times you're called out to cover a trip and might end up with 2 DHs and 1 flying leg. Or it's just an out and back two-day. Something with low flying. It's going to be hard to hit ALV+15 unless you're junior and getting nailed with a trip before you even go on SC. Then I see ALV+15 actually kicking in.

But for those who do slip in a few more SCs than others (more senior pilots in a busy time) I bet we just need to get ready to say "they're flying me every day" and at the airport more than if you held a line. Right now I'm working about 75% of the month and I sit around 80% on the entire category, not just reserve.

I think the trend will continue. The notion that "hey, I'll bid reserve and take a month off" needs to be scratched from the vernacular.

BTW, in FEB on the ATL 88B guys at 60% in category are about 30% on the reserve list and 80% in category is about 70% on reserve. About 40% of the rev list is between 60-80% in the category. Go back a year and 60% would put you around 1-3% on the reserve list and 80% was around 5%-10%.

 

I think so too. It's funny how the "upgauging" and "shifting flying to mainline" that management has been selling us leads to most people flying smaller, lower paying airplanes. I always thought upgauging was the opposite.

Of course, going from a 50-seater to a 76-seater is definitely upgauging. I think maybe that's what they mean.