This is huge.... UAL has nearly 100 777/747s they have above 50 A350s and 787s on order with options more. More higher paying period.

 

That was actually pretty good story. While saying something awarded via a seniority system is somehow "out of seniority" is technically incorrect, and we probably need to come up with a better phrase for it, I think we all know what we're talking about and your example hits it on the head pretty good.

The new hire ER phenoms in '07-08 (and again in '10) weren't because of payrates, like in your example, but mostly QOL. In '07-08 the Great ER Expansion, especially in NYC, saw a dramatic shift to what was considered generally undesirable flying. What was once the flying lounge chair to productive, ultra commutable European paradise became the F train to Malariaville, not to mention more and more domestic. If you were on the bottom you had to slather yourself with neurotoxins and slam powerful medications just to safely be on reserve or a junior lineholder. It was still a fairly senior seat, but it was in a junior base and now no one wanted to be junior on it. So guys avoided it like the plague.<—pun intended

Periods of real or percieved suatained hiring also tend to encourage guys to bypass things they want for a bid or three, because they "just know" they can get it whenever they want. That makes things even more junior...at least until the music stops. Then the senior pilots start grabbing seats via a number of scenarios and the juniors left standing in the truly junior categories. especially when there are displacements but even when there aren't.

Even with all that, it started to reverse and many of the all ER classes of '08 were getting flushed. By '10-12 we were deep into the Great ER Purge, 330/764 takeover of much of the premium stuff, with a lot of the other cool international stuff going away forever, even more domestic, but still most of the bad stuff. So it started "going junior" again. Not because no one wanted it, but because no one wanted to be junior on it. Used to be the worst curse your luck woe as me thing they could give you was DUB, and now that's a treat for any RSV and for many lineholders.

And now here we are and its officially a dying fleet, so they are kicking guys off it as the clone troopers in Planning faithfully execute "Order 66" from the 4th floor in the final phase of the Great ER Purge.

 

They will, although they hit the fat part of the bat with their retirements sooner than we do. Their bottom 3rd will feel the rising tide more than ours will but in the end I see fairly similar trajectories; foreign fake airlines notwithstanding.

 

Yup. Their retirements are front loaded. Ours are more spread out.

 

Is there much route overlap at UCon? I'm just wondering how much shrinkage they might see when all is said and done. A lot of our shrinkage since the merger was not due to route overlap, but rather the Euro Economy going into the crapper, causing the cutbacks in ER flying.

I've not been paying much attention to what's going on behind the scenes at UCal but it seems CAL is hiring and Untied is recalling, is that just to replace retirements, or are they adding flying too, now that they are finally going to be getting the 787.

Are they parking any 'old' planes as those 787's arrive?

 

Then age 65 hit.

 

Not sure how all that will play out juxtaposed to their significant combined retirements. I'd be suprised if they didn't shrink some capacity, but if and whil they do that, they will still feel more advancement than we will for the first 5 years or so. At least once their furloughs are all back, they have SOC and real off the street hiring is in full swing.

 

We all saw this coming.

Delta to drop Memphis as hub airport

 

FWIW, I was riding in the bus to NATCO back in '99, and a guy was there upgrading to DC-9 captain at 4 years, 11 months. And it wasn't at "Express pay" neither (close to a buck ninety an hour).

Numerically speaking, as of the last bid, I am almost farther away from any captain seat than I was in 1999. The closest I ever got was 4 to go.

Nu

 

And their timing is better than ours was in 2008-10, now that the U.S. economy is finally starting to improve. (we hope!)