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Old 09-24-2013 | 12:35 PM
  #140361  
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Originally Posted by Roadkill
This analysis you've posted is pretty interesting and seems to cover the options of this decision... but you massively mislead our downside by not extrapolating a legal contract clause into the future, "What if the company decided to take advantage of this wording, could they?".

Your straw man you set up to slay is "15 pax a day", as if that's all this is about on the downside, or COULD EVER BE--that's our choice, 15 pax. Come on, that's not the downside of this at all! It's the contract language POTENTIAL for 1500 pax a day of code shares if the door is inappropriately opened and protections to stop it are removed. You seriously can't be this unable to look towards potential adversity from the PILOTs perspective... I know you certainly can see the downside of the company's potential decisions, you present them to us non-stop.

You do this "set up a bogus strawman and argue against it" style of argument quite often alfa... I like your intellectual slant, but you NEVER PRESENT BOTH POTENTIAL SIDES! You are 20% of the reason I don't trust my union-- you rarely argue the non-company side and play devil's advocate, or start by taking the "pro-pilot cautious company disbelief until proven otherwise and still ensure protection against unanticipated intentional full exploitation of the wording by the company" position-- MY BARGAINING AGENT's obvious and fiduciary position! Every time I read your posts, and I've come to understand you are affiliated with my union somehow, I feel like I'm reading some company-propagandist whose intent is to talk me into whatever they are selling. Seriously every time I read you, I think "Well, that guy sounds quite smart... I sure wish he were working FOR me, instead of for the company, I wonder how they managed to buy him off, maybe they got his kids hostage?" Gosh how I wish you'd apply your mind and intellect to presenting the data from a "pilot's first if there is conflict" perspective, instead of a "company first, and pilot's will probably benefit from that" perspective.

Just my opinion, but you do spend a lot of time here presenting the ALPA case, so I thought you might like to hear a data point from a receptive listener on how your postings come through. No insult intended, truly, I read everything you post... I just never feel you have MY back in mind. Hope I'm wrong and just don't understand enough.
Bingo. We don't have protections in JFK, AMS, CDG, or ATL - if the markets determine any city pair or hub is unprofitable it will be paired back, PWA protections or not. We just gave them (?) a 15% margin, potentially out of our pilot ranks to subsidize a market. Guess what? If it's not profitable they'll still cut it and then we'll have to contemplate another retreat.
Old 09-24-2013 | 12:42 PM
  #140362  
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Originally Posted by brakechatter
So let's think it out:

Delta wants to reduce our presence in Japan, specifically at NRT. Haneda is the business plan du jour, but we can't get in there. Meanwhile UAL and AA are partnering with Japanese carriers for access.
I don't think that's right. What Delta wants is to reduce the presence of the Delta pilot in NRT. If it was as simple as Haneda being the new business plan, then Delta would have no desire to keep code share in NRT. Why would they need NRT code share if NRT is dying?

I think all the dots are connecting Delta wanting to simply replace Delta pilots in NRT with Skymark pilots in NRT. If not, Delta would simply reduce its presence in NRT below the 316 slots per week based on the economics. Delta would then gladly walk away from code share out of NRT because NRT is dying. But that's not what management is asking for. Management wants relief from having to cancel the code share...NOT relief from 316 slots per week.

Originally Posted by brakechatter
Skymark seems to be our choice, and a cursory search over the internet shows me that Skymark is completely open to expats operating their equipment. Perhaps some out of box thinking that the expats be Delta pilots could be in order, but that might be thinking outside the box a bit too much , so Americans who are not Delta pilots will be operating the equipment allowed by us giving up a no codeshare clause and allowing the reduction of the slots currently in our section 1.
This is the essence of the situation. It's an opportunity for us to actually roll back outsourcing by ending NRT code share. Yes it's a small step in our overall gigantic outsourcing problem within our Section 1, but it is a step.

Originally Posted by brakechatter
In the meantime, it would appear that we are accepting minimum block hours somewhere in the neighborhood of 85% of what we have now--if the rumors are to be believed--for the Pacific operation. Nobody is further from "in the know" than me. I am assuming that this 85% includes China, HNL to PAC RIM, NRT to the beaches--as in the entire Pacific? For this the company gets unlimited code share? Expanded code share? Very slightly expanded code share? IDK, but it's important. I don't spend enough time here to have caught that part of the rumor. Does this include the approximately 328 Chinese airlines, Korean, Vietnam, and any other PAC operation with which we have linked?
Again, you've nailed it. Our union is about to sign off on an LOA (without even a discussion of MEMRAT) that will "give us" an 85% block hour "guarantee" in return for giving the company unlimited code share. Our current language is very tough on the company growing code share because it requires the maintaining of 316 slots per week at a heavily slot-controlled airport. We are now giving up that language.

Originally Posted by brakechatter
We have just remerged as an S&P powerhouse, which I suppose is important. The Delta pilots were a big part of that ability, IMO. That is leverage. The company is NOT going to pull us down to 0 block hours just because they can, so we can toss that out as emotional drivel as well, my friend.(yes I know that wasn't you, but you could have set the record straight there as well)
Agreed.

Originally Posted by brakechatter
Then a look at the history of NWA and their love of the code share is in order. I don't think that it is out of line to take a look at the other side of the world in order to see where this thing might be headed is out of line either. All of those posh Euro destinations that you no longer fly to could very well be a precursor to what is going to happen in the PAC RIM a few more steps down the road. While a JV is certainly not a code share, I would say that at the current time, there is no question that we are not on the receiving end of that whole Europe thing. Could that aviation plague be trying to spread to our Pacific operation as well?
Right again.

Originally Posted by brakechatter
What leverage do we have? Delta is a world class, S&P 500 airline, who constructively engages their pilots, who apparently are putting a viable threat to reemerge with another collective bargaining agent if the recent activities of the MEC communication carpet bombing are to be believed. As such, Delta needs a world class PACIFIC operation. I don't believe ending their code share and sticking it to us "just because they can" is viable long term, so I would say there is some leverage there. I don't have enough information to decide if 85% is extracting all of our leverage, but my hunch says it is not, especially when the aircraft going to the destinations formerly served by Delta are now going to be driven by pilots who could have formerly been in the service of Delta Air Lines.
We're not extracting 85% of the flying with this new LOA. We only say we are. Just like when the company came to us wanting to code share out of NRT. Our negotiators were forward thinking and untrusting of management. Exactly as it should be. So our negotiators put in language that gave them the right to code share only IF the company maintains 316 slots per week at NRT. If it's only 315, the code share stops. In essence it was a snap-back feature. Now we're about to negotiate away the 316 number rendering toothless our protections. If 85% is too much for the company to operate, no prob. Just renegotiate it to 80%...but this time you really mean it!!

Originally Posted by brakechatter
T'woud appear that Delta wants to code share more in the PAC, and needs relief from the paltry share allowed now. That's leverage. T'woud appear that Delta needs larger access to Haneda via this code share. That's leverage. T'woud appear that Delta needs to rid itself of this minimum frequency burden that is soooooo outdated in order to focus capital on the real prize of the moment, China. That's leverage.

I say, since the PAC RIM is expat central of the world, put Delta butts in the code share seats and let them have what they want. Of course, that is just ridiculous . I doubt that we will get to vote on this, and yes it appears that this solidifies the protection of some current jobs--which will likely be there anyway since the S&Ps brand new entrant won't like throwing out the furlough word, or the unknown of a wildcat union on the property--if the recent full court press of communication from the multitude of leadership individuals is any indicator.

Can I assume that any agreement will also include the usual caveat of circumstances over which the company cannot control.......? Fukushima is worrisome, and that is the only reason to give pause to protecting some of the block hours, for me. But if the caveat exists, and I'm sure it is probably in there somewhere, there doesn't appear to be enough meat on this bone.

My opinion
Very good post with lots of great questions.

Carl
Old 09-24-2013 | 12:49 PM
  #140363  
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Originally Posted by newKnow
T,

You are a 767 captain who is looking to retire in the next 10 years. It's great that you can look forward to being part of the investment class.

But, you should consider that there are a lot of pilots on our list who are looking at making half of what you make during that time and aren't afforded the opportunity to look at the world through investor colored glasses. For them, the best investment they can make is to insure they upgrade to captain as soon as possible and make sure the company or the union does nothing to slow them to that goal.

Just something to consider....
Couldn't of said it better new.

It seems that everything the union passes extends our stagnation even longer. To have completed 12 years of service (some while on furlough) and mathematically be looking at almost 20 years of service til upgrade, it will be frustrating if DALPA signs something that wipes out a years worth of retirements.

Up the Irons!!!
Old 09-24-2013 | 12:53 PM
  #140364  
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Originally Posted by brakechatter
Back to the topic. If the rumors are true, the company is telling us that possibly 15% of our current block hours are going away. If this is their negotiating end point, I wonder where their starting point was. Even more, they will be possibly be flown by a Japanese company that wants to put foreign pilots in the control seats. I have a basic ethical problem with Delta code sharing on flights that were formerly flown by Delta pilots, who are now flown by expats that are not Delta pilots. Of course, that is just speculation, but not out of the realm of reasonable possibility given press releases and other obtainable information.
That is exactly what they're saying. The company is saying that it is based on economics and keeping faith with their vision of capacity discipline. Great. They're management, we're pilots. They get to make those decisions. Pull 15% out of NRT, and end the NRT code share. Win-win. We begin to chip away at our massive outsourcing problem in Section 1, and the company gets to discipline its capacity.

But what does our union do? The best of all worlds for management - allow them to keep NRT code share while reducing NRT capacity (flown by Delta pilots). But it's the worst of all worlds for the Delta pilot.

Carl
Old 09-24-2013 | 12:59 PM
  #140365  
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Originally Posted by forgot to bid
Here's the ironic part, ex-Comair guys flying for Skymark.
Yup. Looks like the Comair guys will get their dream of being senior to Delta pilots after all.




Carl
Old 09-24-2013 | 01:13 PM
  #140366  
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Originally Posted by tsquare
They are in a no win position in a sense then: If they say no, and the company then DOES pull down significant flying, there will be a ruckus from the dough boys about how DALPA didn't protect us.
First, I thought out of respect for the wishes of this thread we would take the DPA bashing to the other thread.

Second, it's not a matter of us saying no or not. The company is saying 15% needs to be pulled out of NRT (and supposedly placed in HND). The company says they need to do it. Why would you then also allow them to continue with code sharing?

Originally Posted by tsquare
If they DO sign an agreement as rumored, you get the emotional response you allude to.
Not that you could get any worse at people skills, but when you keep parroting that tired old ALPA talking point of calling anyone "emotional" if they disagree with you, it just shows you can't debate.

Originally Posted by tsquare
So how should they proceed? Will you support them if we tell the company to pack sand and they subsequently pull it down or do you want the protection they negotiated?
Absolutely we would back DALPA's decision on it because management says they need to do it anyway. Why give them the added gift of keeping code share?

Originally Posted by tsquare
I quit thinking suspicious thoughts about this stuff a long time ago. We have to start thinking like investors and businessmen instead of union thugs. Look at today's news for example. There is a Bloomberg article about DAL and VA aligning flights and terminals from JFK to LHR. What did DAL stock do? (crossed $24/share earlier in the day) Wall Street is paying attention to DAL. We are fighting a 2000s style union "war", and we have an alternative group that wants to send us back to the 1940s. JMHO, YMMV, but I do know that DAL stock is treating me pretty well these days... Business is dynamic, not static. Grow or die. Being a member of the investment class is what awaits us when we retire whether or not you want to believe it, so getting a leg up on that concept now will make the transition much much easier, and far more lucrative.

/rant
You and I get to think like the "investor class" because we had some good years in which to save money to invest. Lots of younger people here won't have the chance we had if we keep selling their future with scope degradation. Pretty selfish thinking on your part tsquare.

Carl
Old 09-24-2013 | 01:19 PM
  #140367  
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Originally Posted by scambo1
By default I support DALPA.

My perspective is the company is going to do what they want. DALPA will always find a way to accommodate that. Whether or not I agree with it is apparently irrelevant.
That's another big point here. This LOA will represent one of the most meaninful changes to our Scope in some time. There's absolutely no time constraint associated with it. Nobody has talked about anything being time critical here. Why wouldn't DALPA put this out for MEMRAT? It would show line pilots that they have a voice in something more than electing reps, and it would give DALPA valuable line pilot input. Everything to gain and nothing to lose. But DALPA will not do that. Why?

Carl
Old 09-24-2013 | 01:20 PM
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Originally Posted by Roadkill
This analysis you've posted is pretty interesting and seems to cover the options of this decision... but you massively mislead our downside by not extrapolating a legal contract clause into the future, "What if the company decided to take advantage of this wording, could they?".

Your straw man you set up to slay is "15 pax a day", as if that's all this is about on the downside, or COULD EVER BE--that's our choice, 15 pax. Come on, that's not the downside of this at all! It's the contract language POTENTIAL for 1500 pax a day of code shares if the door is inappropriately opened and protections to stop it are removed. You seriously can't be this unable to look towards potential adversity from the PILOTs perspective... I know you certainly can see the downside of the company's potential decisions, you present them to us non-stop.

You do this "set up a bogus strawman and argue against it" style of argument quite often alfa... I like your intellectual slant, but you NEVER PRESENT BOTH POTENTIAL SIDES! You are 20% of the reason I don't trust my union-- you rarely argue the non-company side and play devil's advocate, or start by taking the "pro-pilot cautious company disbelief until proven otherwise and still ensure protection against unanticipated intentional full exploitation of the wording by the company" position-- MY BARGAINING AGENT's obvious and fiduciary position! Every time I read your posts, and I've come to understand you are affiliated with my union somehow, I feel like I'm reading some company-propagandist whose intent is to talk me into whatever they are selling. Seriously every time I read you, I think "Well, that guy sounds quite smart... I sure wish he were working FOR me, instead of for the company, I wonder how they managed to buy him off, maybe they got his kids hostage?" Gosh how I wish you'd apply your mind and intellect to presenting the data from a "pilot's first if there is conflict" perspective, instead of a "company first, and pilot's will probably benefit from that" perspective.

Just my opinion, but you do spend a lot of time here presenting the ALPA case, so I thought you might like to hear a data point from a receptive listener on how your postings come through. No insult intended, truly, I read everything you post... I just never feel you have MY back in mind. Hope I'm wrong and just don't understand enough.
I guess you are using the "with all due respect" argument. You say no insult intended and then rail about how I have been bought off by the company. With all due respect.

The fact is that any military unit spends a great deal of time trying to think like their opponent. Any sports team spends a great deal of time trying to think like their opponent. Are they cowards and turncoats also? This argument is seriously one of the dumbest I have read anytime.

There are two signatures on any new LOA, ours and the company's. If you don't consider what the company is thinking then you will fail every time. It sounds sexy to say "Give me, give me, I demand this and that." and then when you fail at least you can pat your own back and crow for the crowd. If you actually want to accomplish something, you have to consider their point of view.

In the company's point of view, they see 15 pax a day. This provision in the PWA has been there for years and it's 15 not 1500, that is reality. So when they are considering giving away something, their return on investment is viewed as 15 pax a day. That is how they view it and no amount of personal attacks on your part is going to change it. If you want their signature on a document then you have to consider what they want.

Now, considering that and accepting that are two different things. What they would ultimately want is for us to do away with all scope restrictions and let them do whatever they want. So from their point of view, any scope restriction is simply an impediment to them executing their business plan. As such, they will weigh the cost/benefit ratio of accepting a new scope restriction within that context.

Our point of view is that we would like the entire world to be covered under our contract and we would like all flying done in this universe to be done by Delta pilots. So we have the company that wants no scope restrictions and the pilots that want universal scope. At some point those opposite points have to be reconciled.

All along the way, each side makes these decisions about how much leverage they have to achieve their goals and what the costs are to achieve those goals. If you just assume that the company has worked themselves into a corner and they will pay an unlimited price to get out of that corner, then just tell the MEC to take a break because you will never get a deal.

So in the end you have to assess how each side views the costs and benefits of the current contract and any proposed changes. Some reps take the easy way out and just blow smoke up your skirt and tell you what you want to hear. If I tell you what I think is true, then you label me a turncoat. Maybe you just want to be lied to, who knows.

In the end, you have to weigh the cost/benefits of each path. In this LOA I see the advantage to a deal is gaining a backstop block hour protection in the Pacific. The disadvantage is letting Delta continue to code share with 15 pax a day out of NRT. Which of those is more important to you?

The company sees the advantage in gaining the revenue from 15 pax a day out of NRT. They see the disadvantage in ceding control over capacity in the Pacific. Which of those is more important them? Next, at what point will they tip over and choose the path of no deal? They have that option and if you assume they don't then you are just lying to yourself. So in determining the tipping point, should you listen to your negotiators, who have lived this agreement for months or just an Internet blowhard that makes up whatever scenario suits them best? Don't forget that there are professional negotiators with decades of experience also in the room.

To me, the option of blustery and bloviation is complete surrender. It might make the bloviator look good to the forum crowd, but you have doomed your pilots to status quo. If you don't believe me, then look at USAPA. The last contract change at US Airways was in 2004. Look at their contract. But hey, they talk a good game. Maybe for you fighting words and reps making themselves look good give you all the compensation you need. I prefer cash myself. Who is delivering the cash and who is delivering the bull crap by the boat load?
Old 09-24-2013 | 01:38 PM
  #140369  
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Originally Posted by alfaromeo
I guess you are using the "with all due respect" argument. You say no insult intended and then rail about how I have been bought off by the company. With all due respect.

The fact is that any military unit spends a great deal of time trying to think like their opponent. Any sports team spends a great deal of time trying to think like their opponent. Are they cowards and turncoats also? This argument is seriously one of the dumbest I have read anytime.

There are two signatures on any new LOA, ours and the company's. If you don't consider what the company is thinking then you will fail every time. It sounds sexy to say "Give me, give me, I demand this and that." and then when you fail at least you can pat your own back and crow for the crowd. If you actually want to accomplish something, you have to consider their point of view.

In the company's point of view, they see 15 pax a day. This provision in the PWA has been there for years and it's 15 not 1500, that is reality. So when they are considering giving away something, their return on investment is viewed as 15 pax a day. That is how they view it and no amount of personal attacks on your part is going to change it. If you want their signature on a document then you have to consider what they want.

Now, considering that and accepting that are two different things. What they would ultimately want is for us to do away with all scope restrictions and let them do whatever they want. So from their point of view, any scope restriction is simply an impediment to them executing their business plan. As such, they will weigh the cost/benefit ratio of accepting a new scope restriction within that context.

Our point of view is that we would like the entire world to be covered under our contract and we would like all flying done in this universe to be done by Delta pilots. So we have the company that wants no scope restrictions and the pilots that want universal scope. At some point those opposite points have to be reconciled.

All along the way, each side makes these decisions about how much leverage they have to achieve their goals and what the costs are to achieve those goals. If you just assume that the company has worked themselves into a corner and they will pay an unlimited price to get out of that corner, then just tell the MEC to take a break because you will never get a deal.

So in the end you have to assess how each side views the costs and benefits of the current contract and any proposed changes. Some reps take the easy way out and just blow smoke up your skirt and tell you what you want to hear. If I tell you what I think is true, then you label me a turncoat. Maybe you just want to be lied to, who knows.

In the end, you have to weigh the cost/benefits of each path. In this LOA I see the advantage to a deal is gaining a backstop block hour protection in the Pacific. The disadvantage is letting Delta continue to code share with 15 pax a day out of NRT. Which of those is more important to you?

The company sees the advantage in gaining the revenue from 15 pax a day out of NRT. They see the disadvantage in ceding control over capacity in the Pacific. Which of those is more important them? Next, at what point will they tip over and choose the path of no deal? They have that option and if you assume they don't then you are just lying to yourself. So in determining the tipping point, should you listen to your negotiators, who have lived this agreement for months or just an Internet blowhard that makes up whatever scenario suits them best? Don't forget that there are professional negotiators with decades of experience also in the room.

To me, the option of blustery and bloviation is complete surrender. It might make the bloviator look good to the forum crowd, but you have doomed your pilots to status quo. If you don't believe me, then look at USAPA. The last contract change at US Airways was in 2004. Look at their contract. But hey, they talk a good game. Maybe for you fighting words and reps making themselves look good give you all the compensation you need. I prefer cash myself. Who is delivering the cash and who is delivering the bull crap by the boat load?

Well, you just validated Roadkills' point
Old 09-24-2013 | 01:47 PM
  #140370  
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Originally Posted by alfaromeo
Well, as usual you don't make any sense.
You just can't stop being a d!ck can you alfa...

Originally Posted by alfaromeo
I have no talking points.
Almost right...you mean you have no points.

See there? Being a d!ck might be easy, but it adds nothing does it.

Originally Posted by alfaromeo
Here is the situation we have today. Delta must have some change to the status quo soon. Either we need to extend the relief for the 316 limitation or Delta needs to back out of their NRT beyond code shares.
That is an incorrect characterization designed to get the required response of Delta pilots caving in. If Delta says they need a change to the status quo, then change it. If they can't operate 316 slots per week profitably, then cut it back to what you can operate. It is in NO WAY connected to code share capability beyond NRT. Management is hoping we'll connect what is not connected, but the two have nothing to do with each other operationally. They're only connected because our current Scope connects them. It was prescient and forward thinking language that foresaw this very scenario. Now DALPA is about to give it away for nothing...and without MEMRAT.

Originally Posted by alfaromeo
For us, it is an asymmetric condition; we will never do those code share flights but for Delta it makes them some money. Delta will not start flying more slots into NRT just to keep the code shares it is not worth it.
Pure factless personal opinion on your part.

Originally Posted by alfaromeo
So for us, we can either watch the code shares go away or try to get something for allowing them to continue. We have no block hour protection now. 85% will be an improvement. It is just people like you try to frame it as if we are "giving up" 15% which is flat out wrong.
You're the one flat wrong alfa. 85% is not an improvement. That's just pure political spin. If 85% is not enough and management needs to pull it down to 70%, there's no way DALPA would not give in to that demand. You and all the other DALPA loyalists will be right back here telling us: "we can't force management to operate empty airplanes because of some ancient agreement...we need to start thinking like investors!"

Originally Posted by alfaromeo
For Delta, this is ceding some amount of control over their capacity. There is no way they will lock in at 100% because that would give them no options if Fukushima blows up or if Godzilla attacks Tokyo or whatever crazy thing is the next to happen.
Nobody's asking them to lock in 100%. Only you are saying that. We're just saying hold firm to what's in our contract. For once, just pay attention to what's in our contract.

Originally Posted by alfaromeo
It comes down to a simple trade. Is it worth it to Delta to cede some control over their capacity (85%) in order to keep the code shares? How much more would they give for 15 pax a day in a system that is now over 150,000,000 per year?
The obvious corollary to your statement then is: Why would managment give up ANY of its control over how many flights it operates out of NRT for a mere 15 pax per day of code share? No managment would do that. It should tell you something as to the much larger issue behind this.

Originally Posted by alfaromeo
For us is it worth it to allow the code shares to continue in order to have some backstop protections in the Pacific, protections we do not have today?
We have no backstop protections now, and we'll have none after this LOA is signed. The percentages will just be renegotiated as desired by managment with a union hungry for constructive engagement. What will stay, is unlimited code share.

Originally Posted by alfaromeo
So you can frame it as "what do I say when all the wide bodies go away" and that is not an emotional argument, but if I correct your misrepresentation of the new protections it is emotional. Got it. For everyone else, realize that both sides have options, not just us, and you need to weigh each sides options with the plusses and minuses of each path. All this emotional baggage is just political BS and does nothing to help analyze which choice is best for us.
You've read your ALPA talking points well grasshopper!

Carl
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