And those slots are $50 million? or so apiece... if you can even get them. Ain't gonna be a lot of them being bought going forward.....

 

So let's think it out:

Delta wants to reduce our presence in Japan, specifically at NRT. Haneda is the business plan du jour, but we can't get in there. Meanwhile UAL and AA are partnering with Japanese carriers for access.

Skymark seems to be our choice, and a cursory search over the internet shows me that Skymark is completely open to expats operating their equipment. Perhaps some out of box thinking that the expats be Delta pilots could be in order, but that might be thinking outside the box a bit too much , so Americans who are not Delta pilots will be operating the equipment allowed by us giving up a no codeshare clause and allowing the reduction of the slots currently in our section 1.

In the meantime, it would appear that we are accepting minimum block hours somewhere in the neighborhood of 85% of what we have now--if the rumors are to be believed--for the Pacific operation. Nobody is further from "in the know" than me. I am assuming that this 85% includes China, HNL to PAC RIM, NRT to the beaches--as in the entire Pacific? For this the company gets unlimited code share? Expanded code share? Very slightly expanded code share? IDK, but it's important. I don't spend enough time here to have caught that part of the rumor. Does this include the approximately 328 Chinese airlines, Korean, Vietnam, and any other PAC operation with which we have linked?

We have just remerged as an S&P powerhouse, which I suppose is important. The Delta pilots were a big part of that ability, IMO. That is leverage. The company is NOT going to pull us down to 0 block hours just because they can, so we can toss that out as emotional drivel as well, my friend.(yes I know that wasn't you, but you could have set the record straight there as well)

Then a look at the history of NWA and their love of the code share is in order. I don't think that it is out of line to take a look at the other side of the world in order to see where this thing might be headed is out of line either. All of those posh Euro destinations that you no longer fly to could very well be a precursor to what is going to happen in the PAC RIM a few more steps down the road. While a JV is certainly not a code share, I would say that at the current time, there is no question that we are not on the receiving end of that whole Europe thing. Could that aviation plague be trying to spread to our Pacific operation as well?

What leverage do we have? Delta is a world class, S&P 500 airline, who constructively engages their pilots, who apparently are putting a viable threat to reemerge with another collective bargaining agent if the recent activities of the MEC communication carpet bombing are to be believed. As such, Delta needs a world class PACIFIC operation. I don't believe ending their code share and sticking it to us "just because they can" is viable long term, so I would say there is some leverage there. I don't have enough information to decide if 85% is extracting all of our leverage, but my hunch says it is not, especially when the aircraft going to the destinations formerly served by Delta are now going to be driven by pilots who could have formerly been in the service of Delta Air Lines.
T'woud appear that Delta wants to code share more in the PAC, and needs relief from the paltry share allowed now. That's leverage. T'woud appear that Delta needs larger access to Haneda via this code share. That's leverage. T'woud appear that Delta needs to rid itself of this minimum frequency burden that is soooooo outdated in order to focus capital on the real prize of the moment, China. That's leverage.

I say, since the PAC RIM is expat central of the world, put Delta butts in the code share seats and let them have what they want. Of course, that is just ridiculous . I doubt that we will get to vote on this, and yes it appears that this solidifies the protection of some current jobs--which will likely be there anyway since the S&Ps brand new entrant won't like throwing out the furlough word, or the unknown of a wildcat union on the property--if the recent full court press of communication from the multitude of leadership individuals is any indicator.

Can I assume that any agreement will also include the usual caveat of circumstances over which the company cannot control.......? Fukushima is worrisome, and that is the only reason to give pause to protecting some of the block hours, for me. But if the caveat exists, and I'm sure it is probably in there somewhere, there doesn't appear to be enough meat on this bone.

My opinion

 

Add in the pilot "shortage", and this is starting to make a little more sense. Scary that the "in the know guy, but not really" seems top think we have no leverage, even in the best of times. What happens when things go south a little bit?

 

And 85% over 0% is what?

Because there are still unknown variables. No one is claiming the Asia landscape is not changing. ALPA is confusing land as soon as possible with land as soon as practical. We are diverting and having someone else take our pax onward. Almost literally.


Thought we had at least ten years ?

Not at all. I simply see us having more time than getting it done yesterday, this is as good as we'll get, 85% gain in Asia flying. Take a few deep breaths. All the company did was say we weren't going to be in compliance. We offered this up and now it's the typical spin on how we saved the world and careers of DAL pilots.

.

Nothing of the sort, it's simply not worthy of a Red Emergency. Thank you for your usual polite rational.

Let me know your talking points for when they start displacing off the wide bodies and it waterfalls throughout the seniority list while we loose all the beach markets and total system block hours remain constant but DAL pilots are flying 15% less.

 

My best analogy: I'm very slowly climbing a rope, and ALPA is slowly burning up the rope that's behind me. Actually the past five years I haven't really been climbing, just hanging there, as the work rule sellouts and scope failures have slowly eliminated most of the rope behind me.

Going forward, I'm counting on the guys on the rope ahead of me get to the top and get off. Hopefully the speed of their exit is faster than the rate of job sales, so that I still have a spot on the rope in ten years. Time will tell...

 

So I just saw where the HRA premiums and deductibles are going up again and Delta's HRA $$ ($1500) are going away. These health rewards and questionaires are a slippery slope to nowhere good!

This might be the year to switch over to the pilot plan! I think our next contract will have to see some improvements in this area.

 

I am not in the know, nor do I claim to be. There needs to be clarity on this. It may be a good deal. Certainly shoring up block hours is a good idea. Shoring up only 85% of the block hours gives me pause, and I start thinking about buzz words, like "constructive engagement", and wondering if this IS the company's version of CE or if CE is dead on the vine. Then I start thinking about the new flight and duty time requirements quickly approaching, and how that might affect this particular LOA and CE. Then we have Contract '15, and how will that affect the moving pieces. The is a forest through all of these trees.

Then I start thinking of that movement afoot on the Delta property for an alternative union, and how they will spin it as their victory either way. I have never been an I-told-you-so, but suffice to say that there has been ample warning given, and here we are with a problem.

I have no emotional attachment to NRT, but I can certainly empathize with those who do, and I certainly don't need to demean that attachment. Certain people need to realize that their skills are valuable, but that the group will only tolerate so much of their personality. At the same time, if you bring in another bargaining agent, chaos will reign supreme for a time--sort of like bankruptcy--which will simply open the floodgates for the usual suspects to come in and take the reigns again. It has happened, several times. IMO, both of these scenarios are unacceptable.

Back to the topic. If the rumors are true, the company is telling us that possibly 15% of our current block hours are going away. If this is their negotiating end point, I wonder where their starting point was. Even more, they will be possibly be flown by a Japanese company that wants to put foreign pilots in the control seats. I have a basic ethical problem with Delta code sharing on flights that were formerly flown by Delta pilots, who are now flown by expats that are not Delta pilots. Of course, that is just speculation, but not out of the realm of reasonable possibility given press releases and other obtainable information.

What can we lose? All of NRT and the associated code. That's a few jobs, no doubt about it. Since we have protections of those jobs, that would mean a stalemate on hiring once again so that attrition may catch up to the lost flying. I think a more likely scenario is a gradual draw down until an agreement can be reached in another negotiation, like FTDT or the full section 6 coming up. I am also not boned up enough in 5th freedom rights, and how japanese code sharing affects those rights to comment on that side of the ledger, which is why this may be a good deal. Or it may be a camel's nose, which will require several iterations of further chipping away. The devil's in the details, which none of us have. With 10-15 years of draw down, it certainly isn't a big hurry to get this done. People much smarter than I could sharpshoot this thing with a little education. Since that is doubtful you will have to trust in your reps. Hopefully, you have chosen wisely. No matter how large or small the associated LOA, section 1 is a big deal--always.

 

So I imagine ALK flying SEA-MSP, SEA-HNL, SEA-OGG, etc bothers you also?

 

Interesting chatter, chatter, as always.

 

Here's the ironic part, ex-Comair guys flying for Skymark.