Any "Latest & Greatest" about Delta?
07-01-2014, 08:14 AM
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Joined APC: Oct 2009
Posts: 3,108
Originally Posted by tsquare
The only thing that will cause stagnation going forward is the lack of new big airplanes. We have very few on order. Stagnation sill not be driven by training, or pay scheme or any of that.. again, another agenda driven straw man argument. When I did my analysis, the 757/767 was 35% of the fleet. When the 757s go away, it will be a smaller airframe. Pays less. Tastes good. Right?
07-01-2014, 08:17 AM
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[QUOTE=Gearjerk;1675618]That is not an accurate statement. You are assuming retirements will remain linear based on the previous number. (Very small data set to found your assumption of the next ten years of retirement numbers.)
Someone on this forum, a long time ago, (it may have been Sailingfun or PinnapleGuy) stated that retirements normally follow the trend of mandatory age 65 retirements, plus 1% of the seniority list. That number, I believe, has been fairly accurate since the merger. (Not counting early-out numbers.)
Example: 2014 has 63 mandatory (age 65) retirements. 1% of the list is approx. 115 pilots. Total retirements for all of 2014 should be close to 180 pilots. Next year, 170 mandatory retirements, plus 120 pilots (1% of list) equals ~290 pilots.
Either way, the large number of retirements will result in an incredible amount of initial quals. Resulting in more seniority list instructors and more pilots.
We can't have 4800 pilots off the line in the course of a year training and fly the schedule no matter how much you don't like it.
Someone on this forum, a long time ago, (it may have been Sailingfun or PinnapleGuy) stated that retirements normally follow the trend of mandatory age 65 retirements, plus 1% of the seniority list. That number, I believe, has been fairly accurate since the merger. (Not counting early-out numbers.)
Example: 2014 has 63 mandatory (age 65) retirements. 1% of the list is approx. 115 pilots. Total retirements for all of 2014 should be close to 180 pilots. Next year, 170 mandatory retirements, plus 120 pilots (1% of list) equals ~290 pilots.
Either way, the large number of retirements will result in an incredible amount of initial quals. Resulting in more seniority list instructors and more pilots.
We can't have 4800 pilots off the line in the course of a year training and fly the schedule no matter how much you don't like it.
07-01-2014, 08:21 AM
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Joined APC: Mar 2008
Position: 767er Captain
Posts: 12,109
Originally Posted by gzsg
So I guess now on one is going to ever retire?
I didn't say that, but that is a pretty myopic way to view the whole picture. The company needs growth (we do not control that). The company will grow, or as SWAPA will find out, their options are going to become limited. (golden scope clause, and an incapable fleet) But t seems from that comment that you want to base all of our upward mobility calculations based solely on retirements. That is an even better argument for LBP, because if there is stagnation due to a freeze in hiring, the only raises we will get are based on the latest greatest contract. Set LBP in stone, and then all you have to do is negotiate an increase to the scale to account for inflation. Without that, salary costs still continue to increase throughout the list, not just at the bottom 12 years. I am not expecting a pay increase until at least 2016, and I think that's overly optimistic. If guys like PD have their way, it will be even later....
07-01-2014, 08:23 AM
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Joined APC: Feb 2007
Position: 765-A
Posts: 6,844
Originally Posted by Delta1067
Reserve bucket question here for the 7ER. If there is a 4 day trip in open time does a senior guy with 4 days of availability get it or does a junior guy with 8 days of availability get it? Same question for a 6 day trip. Does the senior guy with 6 days of availability get it or does the junior guy with 10 days of availability get it.
In each case, if legal for it, the guy in the matching group gets it. Even if he doesn't want it and someone else in another group wants it.
07-01-2014, 08:25 AM
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Posts: 3,108
Originally Posted by alfaromeo
You know, it would be nice if even one time there could be a discussion about issues based on logic and reason and not emotion and attack. Seriously, do United and American have pay banding? Does Southwest have a single pay rate? What other domestic/international competitors do we have on the scale of Delta? So who is different? I will let you answer the questions and see if you can even tell the truth about known facts or if you will just attack.
A little advice, when you try to argue on emotion and attack you will lose every time. This is a business negotiation about money, nothing more, nothing less. If you treat it like some high school popularity contest you will be crushed. I expect the next words to come out of your mouth to be "he can't sit at our table, this is the cool kids table". That is your level of discourse.
Our contract is riddled with tradeoffs of pay and productivity. Why isn't our vacation day worth 3:30 or 5:45 or 15:00 hours? That is a trade. Why is the ALV 72 -84 and not 15-20? That is a trade. Why don't we have unlimited sick leave? That is a trade. Why do we have any training freezes at all? That is a trade. I could go on and on.
Anyone that ever white slips, green slips, swaps trips for more pay, or doesn't try to personal drop every one of their assigned trips is simply selling jobs for money. To try to equate this issue with a moral crusade is just emotional claptrap that is designed to deflect from the facts on the ground.
Management wannabe? Shadow MEC? Seriously, just win the debate in the arena of facts and logic. At least if you are not scared of that. One advantage of facing very trying circumstances is you get a little clarity on what is important and what is not. Kick me out of the cool kids table and shun me and call me internet names. See if I care one little bit.
A little advice, when you try to argue on emotion and attack you will lose every time. This is a business negotiation about money, nothing more, nothing less. If you treat it like some high school popularity contest you will be crushed. I expect the next words to come out of your mouth to be "he can't sit at our table, this is the cool kids table". That is your level of discourse.
Our contract is riddled with tradeoffs of pay and productivity. Why isn't our vacation day worth 3:30 or 5:45 or 15:00 hours? That is a trade. Why is the ALV 72 -84 and not 15-20? That is a trade. Why don't we have unlimited sick leave? That is a trade. Why do we have any training freezes at all? That is a trade. I could go on and on.
Anyone that ever white slips, green slips, swaps trips for more pay, or doesn't try to personal drop every one of their assigned trips is simply selling jobs for money. To try to equate this issue with a moral crusade is just emotional claptrap that is designed to deflect from the facts on the ground.
Management wannabe? Shadow MEC? Seriously, just win the debate in the arena of facts and logic. At least if you are not scared of that. One advantage of facing very trying circumstances is you get a little clarity on what is important and what is not. Kick me out of the cool kids table and shun me and call me internet names. See if I care one little bit.
This time management has returned $2.75 billion to the shareholders in a second round of buy backs and dividends. There is so much money they don't know what to do with it so they gave it back to the investors. Good deal.
Time to spend some of those billions on the pilots who took over $15 billion in concessions and counting.
Management doesn't make concessions during their compensation negotiations and neither should we.
07-01-2014, 08:27 AM
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Joined APC: Mar 2008
Position: 767er Captain
Posts: 12,109
Originally Posted by orvil
True statement. I'm on the 737 and can hold the 7ER. Anyone senior to me on the 737 can hold it, too. It's a choice. I've done the around the world thing. I like staying in the same time zone. So does everyone senior to me.
07-01-2014, 08:35 AM
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Originally Posted by tsquare
How WOULD that happen?
Either way, I don't think those two years wouldn't make a difference in your opinion of a straight relative seniority scenario though. It would suck.
07-01-2014, 08:42 AM
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Position: 7er
Posts: 1,673
Originally Posted by newKnow
I was just pointing out why this should be a change we should push for.
In each case, if legal for it, the guy in the matching group gets it. Even if he doesn't want it and someone else in another group wants it.
In each case, if legal for it, the guy in the matching group gets it. Even if he doesn't want it and someone else in another group wants it.
07-01-2014, 08:43 AM
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Position: 765-A
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Originally Posted by forgot to bid
To me anytime someone in a negotiation announces that they're in a hurry or have a deadline then you've got the upper hand. In 2012 we let it go because two hands in a bush or value your money time argument, something along those lines.
In 2015 I cannot forsee what would make the company wheel and deal. They can lock us into rates and thus lock everyone else into theirs.
My bet 4/8/3/3/0/0/0
In 2015 I cannot forsee what would make the company wheel and deal. They can lock us into rates and thus lock everyone else into theirs.
My bet 4/8/3/3/0/0/0
If C2015 drags on too long, at some point, it would have been better for us to have stuck to our guns and fought it out 2-3 years ago.
These games are stupid anyway. When are we going to learn to insist that the end of EVERY contract should include 3%-5% COLA raises every year, until the new contract is signed?
07-01-2014, 08:45 AM
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Joined APC: Feb 2007
Position: 765-A
Posts: 6,844
Originally Posted by Delta1067
Thanks newK. Do you know if the 7ER is considered a wide or narrow body category WRT the days of availability groupings? PWA says narrow body has 1-4 day groupings and wide body has 1-5 day groupings.
Have fun! Hopefully, we can make it better soon.
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