Any "Latest & Greatest" about Delta?
07-02-2014 | 02:53 PM
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Lots of good info on fleet plans on Delta net. Couple of highlights or lowlights depending on your point of view. Wide bodies in the current RFP will start arriving in 2017. 747's will be replaced first then the early 767ER's. Hints that they don't want a 380 seat replacement for the 747 so will be smaller. 50 aircraft buy initially. Overall smaller airframes for the Pacific and bigger in the Atlantic seems to govern what airframes they will be buying.
757 will be downsized to about 75 airframes. Those will be retained for quite some time. A321 is not a true transcon aircraft and can't replace the 757 in those markets. 757 and 737-900 will do the transcons. 10 to 13 million each to overhaul a 757. They love the airframe but that amount better spent elsewhere. 75 total airframes will cover the routes other types can't.
Love the MD88 and ours sons will be flying them to their retirements! Super cheap and fuel not a huge issue on shorter flights. Buying used ones for parts.
757 will be downsized to about 75 airframes. Those will be retained for quite some time. A321 is not a true transcon aircraft and can't replace the 757 in those markets. 757 and 737-900 will do the transcons. 10 to 13 million each to overhaul a 757. They love the airframe but that amount better spent elsewhere. 75 total airframes will cover the routes other types can't.
Love the MD88 and ours sons will be flying them to their retirements! Super cheap and fuel not a huge issue on shorter flights. Buying used ones for parts.
07-02-2014 | 03:49 PM
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Been awhile since I last checked this board. Things start to get interesting again as the contract comparison and survey hits the street.
I see the same characters are still here. I wouldn't mind seeing completed surveys posted here. Mine will be posted. Should result in a few flying poo storms. Much fun for all! Been told by a more than a few reps that they would like an email, phone chat, or better a face to face to discuss what we want in a new contract. This above and beyond the survey. Well, they asked for it, why not give it to them. Both barrels.
The contract comparison should be an eye opener.
I see the same characters are still here. I wouldn't mind seeing completed surveys posted here. Mine will be posted. Should result in a few flying poo storms. Much fun for all! Been told by a more than a few reps that they would like an email, phone chat, or better a face to face to discuss what we want in a new contract. This above and beyond the survey. Well, they asked for it, why not give it to them. Both barrels.
The contract comparison should be an eye opener.
Oops, I mean our current rates plus profit sharing.
Let the lowering of expectations begin.
Remember and never forget True Headings 14-2 where the MEC commits to an "historic" C2015.
Aim High (and whatever they say in the Navy)
07-02-2014 | 03:58 PM
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The 4833 you referenced yield an annual compounded increase of 6.85% over the duration of the contract from our original C2012 amendable date to the future amendable date. At that rate DAL pilot pay will double in 10.5 years. Assuming inflation remains at current levels, would you be happy with double your current pay rate in 10.5 years?
Lets say we ink another 4833 for contract 2015. Lets further assume we ink the deal 6 mo.s early as we did last time. The math says that is another 6.85% compounded annual increase over 3 years. Rough calculation says M88A (largest category at DAL) pays out around $252. Add on 15% 401K contribution, we get $290. Doable? Absolutely! Is it enough?
Let's keep going.
Another 3 years, $307 for a pay rate and total comp rate of $353.
Isn't compounding math fun? Let's look at the other side of the coin. Can Delta generate an annual compounded profit increase of 6.85%? Sure. The question is for how long? Can we increase our comp at 6.85% annually? Sure, we have demonstrated that. For how long?
Clearly the answer to those questions is not forever. We know this intuitively. Enough is a question that depends on how one sees the world. A linear view reveals quite a different result than a cyclical view. Exponential growth requires cyclic adjustment. Linear growth is far more stable and allows time for productivity to keep pace.
Time is the key element. 4833 as one time deal over a 3 year period is not particularly exciting. 48334833 over 6 years gets the blood flowing a bit. 483348334833 over 9 years is quite an eye opener that gets one's pulse going real good.
Would you sign off on a such a 9 year contract, assuming inflation remains at current levels? I know, ridiculous, but it's a thought experiment. I would in a heartbeat. There is virtually 0 chance DAL will grow profitability at that rate for that period of time.
A more reasonable question, and still a thought experiment, would you sign off on 4833 commencing Jun 1 2015?
I think 4833 is highly doable and likely a lower bound. Interesting.
Lets say we ink another 4833 for contract 2015. Lets further assume we ink the deal 6 mo.s early as we did last time. The math says that is another 6.85% compounded annual increase over 3 years. Rough calculation says M88A (largest category at DAL) pays out around $252. Add on 15% 401K contribution, we get $290. Doable? Absolutely! Is it enough?
Let's keep going.
Another 3 years, $307 for a pay rate and total comp rate of $353.
Isn't compounding math fun? Let's look at the other side of the coin. Can Delta generate an annual compounded profit increase of 6.85%? Sure. The question is for how long? Can we increase our comp at 6.85% annually? Sure, we have demonstrated that. For how long?
Clearly the answer to those questions is not forever. We know this intuitively. Enough is a question that depends on how one sees the world. A linear view reveals quite a different result than a cyclical view. Exponential growth requires cyclic adjustment. Linear growth is far more stable and allows time for productivity to keep pace.
Time is the key element. 4833 as one time deal over a 3 year period is not particularly exciting. 48334833 over 6 years gets the blood flowing a bit. 483348334833 over 9 years is quite an eye opener that gets one's pulse going real good.
Would you sign off on a such a 9 year contract, assuming inflation remains at current levels? I know, ridiculous, but it's a thought experiment. I would in a heartbeat. There is virtually 0 chance DAL will grow profitability at that rate for that period of time.
A more reasonable question, and still a thought experiment, would you sign off on 4833 commencing Jun 1 2015?
I think 4833 is highly doable and likely a lower bound. Interesting.
Tell us how it is a win to reduce profit sharing and make the pay banding concession with 4 year freezes.
Or are you giving us line pilots small bites at a time?
07-02-2014 | 04:23 PM
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From: Douglas Aerospace post production Flight Test & Work Around Engineering bulletin dissembler
Delta widebody rumor ....
I would bet the RFP will be split between the 777 and the A330.
Wall Street aerospace analysts are becoming increasingly concerned that Boeing will fall short of its goal to maintain 777 production rates at the current 8.3/mo through the introduction of the 777X, planned for entry-into-service in 2020.
One analyst predicts a rate reduction from 8.3/mo to seven and then to five as 2020 gets closer. Others are beginning to hint that they won’t be far behind in lowering expectations. But don’t tell this to Randy Tinseth, VP Marketing for Boeing.
“We have things in the pipeline and we’re working on those,” he told us July 1. “We’re confident the sales will come home and we’re confident we’ll bridge the gap.”
One analyst predicts a rate reduction from 8.3/mo to seven and then to five as 2020 gets closer. Others are beginning to hint that they won’t be far behind in lowering expectations. But don’t tell this to Randy Tinseth, VP Marketing for Boeing.
“We have things in the pipeline and we’re working on those,” he told us July 1. “We’re confident the sales will come home and we’re confident we’ll bridge the gap.”
07-02-2014 | 04:29 PM
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07-02-2014 | 04:35 PM
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I'm sure they will include the May 2004 Delta pilot hourly rates plus inflation chart.
Oops, I mean our current rates plus profit sharing.
Let the lowering of expectations begin.
Remember and never forget True Headings 14-2 where the MEC commits to an "historic" C2015.
Aim High (and whatever they say in the Navy)
Oops, I mean our current rates plus profit sharing.
Let the lowering of expectations begin.
Remember and never forget True Headings 14-2 where the MEC commits to an "historic" C2015.
Aim High (and whatever they say in the Navy)
Forget inflation. Any published number is cooked beyond recognition. Profit sharing is what it is. It is codified in our contract. I personally do not like profit sharing as we further progress in the current business cycle. It has done a great job up to now. That money is real. I know, I spent it. I will provide input that says we need to further monetize it and wind it down. Risk is increasing.
BTW, there is a real good reason why wages in the aggregate do not keep up with inflation. Credit. In a credit constrained world, wages and prices will be stable in real times and will be will be governed by real productivity. In this non-existent world, productivity increases and allows expansion of credit. Equilibrium.
In our real world where credit is completely disconnected from productivity, there is no way to balance rampant monetary inflation over the long term. To measure expectations against the fantasy of Delta pilots somehow finding a way to exist in an alternate monetary universe is naive. We can do better than inflation at times during the business cycle, but we will lag at other times when the wheels must come off the bus.
I am not saying that one should not be cognizant of inflation. Indeed, the opposite is what I prescribe. Just do not expect the ability to capture credit money to outpace its production for any period other than the short term. Your focus should be on channeling surplus credit money into wealth forms that are resistant to monetary inflation. IOW, keeping what you have already saved. That is how to fight and win in this global system of money.
Any time comparing our compensation to an inflation index is wasted time better spent on educating yourself on what to do with your surplus earnings.
07-02-2014 | 04:37 PM
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07-02-2014 | 04:38 PM
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From: Baja Vermont
6 can't be a C-5, it's in the air, not on jacks. Then again, the gear's hangin'. Been there, done that.
How was the cat comp? Didn't make, honey dos.
GF
How was the cat comp? Didn't make, honey dos.
GF
07-02-2014 | 04:39 PM
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07-02-2014 | 04:40 PM
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As far as the rest, ***? Find someone else to make you feel good. I wouldn't support that as constructive to C2015.
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