RA continued:

JFK - plan is agreed to for T4.... need to buy out 2 of the 3 owners and get port authority financing. we will extend the piers out into where the remote parking is now. renovate terminal 2? build bridge. I missed part of that.
This plan can be acted on as soon as 3-4 months.
RJ's will be changed to 70 and 76 seaters.. minimize 50 seaters.


Along with aircraft IFE and winglet enhancements, Front end IT will be improved drastically in 2010.... kiosks, res, and airports above and below wing.


2010 DL will put tremendous focus on A0 as opposed to D0. Misconnects **** passengers off more than anything... will put large investment into ensuring a/c get into the gates on time.

We will try to save fuel whenever possible, but being on time is much more important. RA would prefer that the cost index be solely at the discretion of the CA and dispatcher to preserve on time.


787- boeing is a ship without a rudder... no update to him since 2008. No clue when it's going to fly or where the program is going. sounded quite frustrated and concerned with how much weight they are having to add to the plane....


100 seat issue- Boeing and Airbus are dabbling in widebodies with no interest in narrowbodies... poor decision. We ideally need a 110-112 seater that can fly without any restriction 1200 miles.... 750 ideal stage length. ERJ190 is too small for this, but the closest current product.
C-series- the engine is very questionable, RA has been very dissapointed with Pratt 2000 series gearings and doesn't think pratt will have a reliable GTF. Will NOT be the launch customer for it.

--- that being said, as 9's come off line, China Eastern MD90's, although larger, will be the optimum 9 replacement until someone gets their butts in gear.


RAH/F9/Midex- We have a legal obligation to continue to honor their contract. They will likely keep the operations very separate. RAh didn't have to pay anything to get those two airlines, they were simply the largest claimholders in BK.


OH will shift back to CVG... shuttle america will shift to JFK.


JAL- we have a small amount of Origin traffic out of japan. expanded distribution in asia is critical in gaining a larger market share.


question about usair and ual:
USair has no access to capital- just selling equities, however they have minimal debt maturities
UAL- they are through the hard part, but dont have financing access except at very very high rates.

We are not counting any carrier out in the future- not planning the operation around anyone failing. We will watch closely and use our high cash position to snatch up slots as they come availble with others pulling back.


question about 744-

it is in the permanent fleet plan- 11 will be flying in 2010, planning to stay with 16 total. Others will be in mod or CRAF flying.




My hands are tired and mythbusters is on... enjoy!

Well, I have to say now that's hard core latest and greatest and you got us over the 16,000 posts mark Mr. 80kts Clap, good job.

Do I get like an internet high five or something for that? :)

Alright inevitable questions, no big moves until fall 2010 as far as equipment and bases, SO... the 764 JFK flying will be done with ATL crews (my word the Roosevelt will be packed), DC9s to ATL and 88s back to NYC, so doesn't all this deadheading really bring to fruition the talk that we needed every pilot we had post SOC until fall of 2010?

And if fall of 2010 is in the midst of a slow U in the economy, does that buy us junior guys more time?

And how in the hell is Boeing not giving updates in over a year+ on the 787 to a CEO who has them on order? And in light of the conversation earlier on the Cseries and E195, interesting to hear what they have to say and specifically on the E195. It bolsters the rumor that we wanted short term leases (I think we wanted 5 or 10 years, can't remember) to fill the gap until Boeing or Airbus had new narrowbodies but Embraer wouldn't budge (wanted double I think?) and thus no new 100-120 seat jet on property.

And its interesting about using cash to buy up key assets as they become available, like slots. Glad to be at an airline with cash and people willing to use it to beat others while they're down.

Interesting move on the 747s and no talk about 777s? We're becoming NWA, keep the old stuff cuz it works long time and will be paid for for long time. So if we're going to overfly NRT, will that be out of DTW? And if 747s are going out over the Atlantic does that mean the 777 will be doing the overflying?

And commuting Captains behold, RA wants you in charge of that cost index. 200 here we come! Of course, you land early in ATL, like 5 minutes early, you wait for gate.

After your hand recovers, yes you do. Now, are your eyes fuzzy? Does this baby blue screen drive you batty now?

Just wondering if they had a stop watch on how long it'd take from meeting to the internet?

80Knots

Thanks for the update, you rock

It's funny how you need three or four accounts to completely parse what was said....

Cheers
George

Sadly, Boeing is simply metering the bad news...
the first six are already written off.

5-7 years from now the 787-900 will be a very nice ride.

Cheers
George

1 and 2. lots of deadheads next year! they want to wait until the dust settles. It sounded like they are going to keep the extra staffing partly for that and partly to allow the airline to expand as the economy recovers. As an FNG, I liked hearing that... and that crowd had less than 5 FNG's.

3. It sounds like boeing has screwed the pooch. I think RA is rightfully ticked about being dropped with yet another launch customer dud. That fit nicely with his attitude on the C-series. It sounds like they'd be very happy just using the 90's in the 9 markets.... economics aren't really that much different with the much more efficient engines and very small acquisition costs.

4. The whales/777s/fleet renewal- this reminded me exactly of his strategy at nwa, which was extremely successful. I'm ok with older jets, but nice renewed interiors. Overflights of NRT would be some out of DTW and some out of SEA. Announcements to come.


behold the internet high five. All nerdiness shall resound among the heavens.

Kudos Clamp, thanks for the update! hip, hip,...

....horay, Clamp! Thanks. :D

Do you think the plan from management is to try and keep these aircraft flying at mainline, or does it seem as though it is something they will try and barter with in 2012? I'm sure RA wouldn't directly comment on something like that, but I was just wondering if anything of the sort came up or was insinuated.

Just to be clear, I don't believe scope is a bargaining chip for anything. I'm just wondering if management is still going to try and subsidize the 100-120 seat flying.

You do, and I'm sure DALPA Comms is PO'd cause most of this stuff was probably briefed at the last MEC meeting NDA, so they can't talk about it, but the news comes out via RA leaks and internet. They used to do this a lot at the fNWA.....:rolleyes:

Some of the overflight stuff will be done with the A300-200. We are adding 10,000 lbs gross weight, upgrading the engines to 70,000 lb thrust (from 58)
and retrofitiing the pilot crew rest area to support 2 pilots so they can be flown over 12 hrs. This will all take some time however.

High five ain't enough! You get the big chest bump. If you buy me dinner and promise to respect me in the morning you get the butt bump!

My God!


I know that 80 is a very good note take, and I catch some subtleties in what RA stated. Even though they do not like the C and E jets there is room there. Not being the launch customer is one thing. I think a European Carrier has that title.
80 RA did not state that we would NOT be the North American launch Customer, correct? Even if we are not that, who cares if you are not a launch customer. The C-Series has the plug diameter for longer ops. The GTF will be a good engine as well. When that is proven, we will get them is Airbus and Boeing do not have an answer by then. Just my thoughts.

SATCHIP! This ain't Tuscaloosa*! You're going to scare people.

:D


*The home of the University of Alabama. Do you know how many Alabama fans it takes to change a light bulb? 10, 1 to change it, 9 to talk about how good the old light bulb was.

Thanks clamp!

SATchip, that's wrong on sooooo many levels:D

So if we're going to increase CRAF flying and use the 747s, how do you staff for that? I'm assuming you can't build lines a month in advance for it but at the same time you'll need the people so do you just over staff it on paper?

Great update, thanks Clamp!

I have never seen a lack of guys willing to fly or fly extra...... Plus the 747 is way over staffed, in Nov there are approximately 120 lines and 50 res for the 744A. For the 744B I expect to see almost 100 reserves!

So maybe they're already staffed for CRAF flying?

This flying is very profitable, and as with World they staff for a assumed sked, and then the overages are generally paid for by the contract.

So when is RA going to come up and brief the Northern Exposure?

I can only speak for the 764s, but we don't deadhead to/from JFK. It's in the middle of a 6/7 day.

Ever since they opened the ER base in NY, they built 6 day trips to appease the commuters, with layovers either in ATL or somewhere that used to be a layover for ATL crews. So all you save is the difference between an ATL vs NYC layover. Hardly covers the cost of opening a new base.

And check the domestic NYC bid package; NYC layovers!

Yeah the ER was doing that to before I got off of it, they had those 9 day trips too.

----

Southwest reports 3Q loss as revenue falls 7.8 pct
The Associated Press - Joshua Freed - ‎50 minutes ago‎
Southwest Airlines lost $16 million during the third quarter, although the airline said a surge in traffic kept things from being worse. ...Southwest Airlines posts narrower third-quarter loss

MarketWatch - Christopher Hinton - ‎1 hour ago‎
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Southwest Airlines posted a narrower third-quarter loss Thursday, as the difficult business ...Southwest Airlines Narrows Loss

Wall Street Journal - Joan E. Solsman, Nathan Becker - ‎1 hour ago‎
Southwest Airlines Co. reported another quarter of red ink, extending a trend that until a year ago was unseen at the ...

American leads carriers to $16 fare hike
Cincinnati.com - ‎15 hours ago‎
American Airlines raised fares as much as $16 round trip on most US routes Monday, prompting Delta Air Lines and others to follow. ...

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You must travel to Mecca to receive enlightenment. Those of us in the remote exposures (LA, North, NY) will do the hajj or be satisfied with the renderings of excellent note-takers.

Why wouldn't they? I suspect that is the biggest reason for holding off. See if they can get us to cave in for some $$$ in 2012 and then its a cheap regional product. Do not hold your breath for Moak to hold the 76 seat line, he has already explained that the regionals are good for mainline pilots.

I will actually be surprised if we keep the 100-120 seat flying...

Capn, I'm afraid I disagree with you on the 100 seat a/c. That is the one issue that would get closest to a strike vote of 100%.My problem with bringing all RJ flying on board is that we don't owe anybody not on our seniority list a darn thing.Once they are aboard you now have a "C" scale in effect and future bargaining $'s will have to be shifted to them.The pie is only so big.I will not be around for any of this as I am a short timer but I caution people who are: think this whole scenario thru,it is a double edged sword.Now that the horse is out of the barn how much are you willing to give up to put that sucker back in ?

Excellent post! The most prudent strategy IMO: Draw a line on any further scope erosion (76 seats and above never outsourced again), increase payscales and rules across the board, and work to regain existing 76 seat flying. There's nothing left to give to benefit another work group after a decade of beatings here.

I'm middle of the road as to what they will try and pull in the 2012 contract. Looking at the latest actions by management it would appear that they are downsizing/limiting the regional connection carrier feeds. I guess part of that is inefficiencies of the 50 seat jet, in addition to the inability to quickly and effectively react to changes in the market as a result of being tied up in regional contract agreements.

On the other hand, I could see them dangling a contract with 100-120 seat aircraft while also dangling an even better paying contract without the 100-120 seat aircraft.

I don't believe the two go hand in hand, but I'm hoping they do not try batting one side of our pilot group against the other. Scope should not be negotiable, period, and I hope our current ALPA reps realize the significance of that.

and there you have it...why there is no good solution to the expansion of regional flying.

I do not believe that we will bring the RJs on board. My point was that management is stalling on the 100-120 seat replacements because they are holding out on the hopes we concede that flying to the regionals. History has shown that we keep moving the line, why would they not expect we will continue. Our ALPA leadership has stated that having done so in the past is good for mainline.

At contact time, management will show that they are losing money, threaten furloughs and give a big chunk of cash to the majority(top half) of our pilots. That majority will vote their pocket books and wallah, 100-120 seat flying is at the regionals.

I hope I am wrong but mark my words.

That is exactly what will happen and the majority of pilots will take the cash.

Just to play devil's advocate here for a sec, but locking in the 100-120 seat aircraft under subcontracted regional companies locks up a substantial amount of the domestic network. I know the "New Delta" is looking to sign contract agreements with regional affiliates that proposes they, not only Delta Mainline, lose money on routes that become unprofitable.

The nice thing about regional companies is that the flying they receive has historically been guaranteed. If that guarantee is no longer part of the deal, maybe regional companies will start to take a backseat stance as opposed to the constant growth/expansion plan.

Expanding contractually obligated regional feeders complicates things, and I believe the current management in place believes this. That being said negotiations are negotiations, and I hope people realize what scope relaxation has done and will continue to do.

Still disagree, the majority of our pilots fly 9's,88/90's.319/320's and 73's and I doubt short of several million that they would sell out. However for 2 million in cash i would sell you all out.Short of that with everything to lose personally and nothing to gain I would strike tomorrow over that issue,period !

From an engineering standpoint, the plastic plane is not a viable 100 seat product. The type of development on the 787 limits the plane to about 45,000 cycles max, this is reduced if the plane is damaged by ground workers. While 45,000 cycles on a long haul aircraft is acceptable, it is very limiting for a jet that does more than 3 legs in a day. That's why the 787-300 is a flop for the short haul market.

The 100 seat aircraft market will be decided by the capabilities of the engine. It's interesting that RA would say an engine that is still in development with no service history is unreliable, yet every manufacturer is considering putting it on their bread and butter aircraft(737, A320, C-series, MRJ, etc)......

I just see it as negotiation in public. We are but a tool to use. It is the future and he probably knows it, but is looking for sweetheart deals to sign on. Good business!

He didn't say the engine is unreliable. He said just doesnt trust the engine without a proven reliability record after what he's seen with the Pratt 2000.

I can't say I really saw any posturing one way or the other for the 100 seater to be flown by mainline or the regional. That would have been suicide to suggest that subject....

I think I see this more clearly now, keep the 9s and 88s, shun new, so its not about the new engines reliability compared to each other its about the new engines compared to the JT8, the only engine they trust. :D

Maybe I'm joking, maybe I'm not.

---

Rumor mill, the MD90s leases are done? Just overheard that in the crewroom, may not be true or it might be about the ones we already got.

Hello stall tactic, I'm management and I love you.