You got to love Despair.com. They always have the best stuff...

Nu

 

You absolutely ROCK dude! Where do you find this stuff?

Carl

 

What do you want them to tell you about stagnation, exactly? You merge two airlines that ued to compete, and were trying to grow networks organically. Now you have a network, complemented by alliances. You've got the owners of the company telling the company, in no uncertain terms, that we will not grow faster than GDP, and that we will pay down debt. You've got "analysts" making sure they tow the line.

I was thinking about this last night: the prupose of the merger is to make money. Period. The people that held our debt, and NW debt, wanted to be paid as well as possible out of bankruptcy. Anderson is their man for that job. The silver lining is that he understands the business. Other than than that, any growth will be purely incidental to the process of making the owners more money.

The focus right now of buying leased airplanes is not simply to reduce debt and operating expenses. It is (as Anderson said on the call) to give us the flexibility to remove then ad aircraft to match demand, with incurring lease/debt payments while they're parked.

So I think you're right: stagnation could be the new normal. The only thing that could change that picture would be economic growth in general, and perhaps a competitive response to uCAL or another merger that would let us grow somewhat faster than GDP.

If Sailing is correct, above, about our 777's deliveries being deferred on account of keeping 747's, and with the deferral of 787's, we're seeing former visions of growth evaporating in front of our eyes, positive APC forums notwithstanding.

I don't know how we can cause more growth. Every attempt to capture growth aircraft has been a new experiment in S&M and self-prostitution. And while I want to talk about things like a NSL, or a SL that gets us the RJ flying back, or anything that ensures any growth is properly turned into Delta pilots flying, I don't want to hear b.s. about future growth, since that is not something we can control. So basically, it comes down eyeing this profitable company, and having the most effective way to tap into our fair share of the compensation. That's when we need smart and effective people, and -dare I dream?- an active membership.

 

...With the pilot's money.

Carl

 

True- however in doing so, they are providing pilots massive leverage going forward. Dare I say 60% more leverage?

 

Dallasnews.com : Airlines advised to start raising pay to attract, retain employees

Airlines advised to start raising pay to attract, retain employees
Posted: 10/26/2010 12:00 AM


By TERRY MAXON / The Dallas Morning News [email protected]

NEW ORLEANS - Airlines must eventually begin raising wages - even with the cost pressures they face - if they want to attract and retain employees, an aviation consultant said Monday.
Michael Boyd, president of the Boyd Group International, said airlines face the possibility that they won't be able to attract employees, particularly pilots, without reversing the cost pressure to lower pay.
"We have an airline industry that is no longer going to be operating on low wages," Boyd said at his company's annual aviation conference in New Orleans. "We're not going to have that anymore."
He and others warned that regional carriers may be particularly pressured by costs as they deal with two safety-related pushes from the federal government: assuring more rest for pilots and requiring more hours of experience before pilots can fly commercial airlines.
Speaking of a proposal to set 1,500 hours as the minimum flight time for a new regional airline pilot, "that's another $40 million in training: $40 million so you can get a $25,000 a year job and get based in Newark?" Boyd said.
"What we're seeing is that compensation has to go up dramatically through all levels. You've got to attract people, so you're going to have to pay them. And if they're going to have to have that much training and expertise, you're going to have to raise the rates you pay them," he said.
Michael Baida, another aviation consultant who also flies as a United Airlines Inc. captain, said his job has assured a good life for him, particularly now that he's a Boeing 747 pilot.
But Baida said he doesn't know whether he would enter the profession today if he had to make the same decision he made decades ago.
Speaking after the meeting, Allied Pilots Association president Dave Bates said he concurs that the pilot profession must see increased wages.
"We've had dramatic reductions in our earning ability over the last 20 years," said Bates, an American Airlines Inc. pilot. "If airlines want to have pilots to fly their aircraft, they're going to have to correct that situation."
Boyd and William Swelbar, research engineer at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, said the increased employee costs will have a negative impact on air service to smaller cities.
"It seems as we start to see costs push on the regional side particularly ... there are going to be markets that are just uneconomic to serve going forward," Swelbar said.
He said the U.S. needs to re-examine how it hands out funding for the 450 U.S. airports that have commercial air service. Of that group, 200 handle 97 percent of the domestic traffic. The remaining 250 account for only 3 percent, he said.
The nation may need to make tough decisions to focus on serving regions rather than particular cities, Swelbar and Boyd said.
Boyd, while criticizing the federal "essential air services" program that subsidizes service to many small communities, said it is vital to areas such as western Kansas, the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, and Montana, where there are no busy airports that otherwise would attract profitable service.

 

No Mr. Gompers, with the shareholders money.

 

Huh? Purely as a shareholder, I want to see the reduction in debt. This will firm up the balance sheet, provide better credit worthiness which impacts interest rates and ultimately help to increase share price. I think most other pilot and non-pilot shareholders would agree with the debt reduction.

 

That is exactly correct sir! I just want everyone to keep remembering this point over the next 9 quarters. We made enormous sacrifices to save the company. Now that it is saved, our continued enourmous sacrifices are paying down debt and making the balance sheet healthier. Our sacrifice, our money.

Carl

 

I really hope you're a cubicle guy pretending to be a pilot.

Carl