Tomcat

Free Bird, I'm also normally a glass is half full kind of guy, but hearing about some of our 757's being parked, 747-200's, the DC-9's eventually and some old 88's things are not looking promising for the home team without aircraft to replace them. People talking about aircraft that haven't even made it to the drawing board yet as a replacement for these airframes that are leaving the property today!

The next generation of aircraft is so far off on the horizon and were standing on our tippy toes to try to see them, but the fact is we need not to look on the horizon, but right in front of our noses at what's going on inside the industry. I personally can't connect the dots, but the things going on with RAH/Frontier/MidWest/Delta's nearly 50% ownership of MidWest and TPG don't give me a warm fuzzy feeling.

I am glad you're glass half full guy today Free Bird, that makes being in the same boat with you a little easier today.

Respectfully,

TC

acl65pilot

Domestic. Moving toward one Category IMHO. Might be CVG ER but they stated 767. The only ER catagory I could see them cutting is CVG since it only has one international flight a day after Sept 1st.

Tomcat

Dis-regard!

Sink r8

OK, thanks...

forgot to bid

After acl's post I am content to put my emb190 dci startup airline idea on hold. It seemed like a good idea but I'm content with acl's relative good news and cheering on tomcat. Interesting UAL, AMR and DAL looking at ordering new planes soon.

Question, more 767 slots on an ae would be made avail to the sizeable group just MD'd off it right?

deltabound

Not only reasonable, but quite likely, I'd say. For a variety of reasons.

Unless, of course, we see a resurgent economy growing at 5-7% a year (current administration is publicly saying 4% annually, which seems awfully optimistic), and oil goes to a steady $40/barrel for the long term. Otherwise, I suspect US airlines of all stripes are going to contract, permanently.

alfaromeo

The carrier to watch right now is LCC. They are bouncing right on the limits of their exit financing covenants in terms of cash on hand. Their lack of cash means they cannot put up collateral for fuel hedging and with fuel rising, this further puts a strain on cash. LCC has been in the convertible bond market this year but couldn't raise a lot of cash. They probably have tapped that out for at least nine months or so. They now have few options for raising additional cash, their stock is at $2+ so it is not attractive to anyone but a bottom feeder. The last option is asset sales. That is a double edged sword because the only thing anyone would want to buy is something that is making profits for LCC. Therefore, any asset sale would only provide temporary relief. Don't know if they are headed for Chapter 33, but they are in hurting shape right now.

AMR has cash and UA has assets that they can borrow against. They aren't setting the world on fire but they have more time than LCC.

Sink r8

You've written much that makes sense, but this doesn't. It's only melodramatic. If you'd written that there would be a very difficult period, contraction, then consolidation, then expansion, I would agree. Something has to give, but I don't see how you could conclude it's a permanent reduction at all airlines. Several airlines simply can't reduce operations further, because they can't service their debt with less revenue. As you've pointed out, UAL is having to resort to offering prohibitive rates in order to borrow. That can't be a long-term solution.

Otherwise, if you're really basing your hopes on 5-7% growth AND $40 oil, then you might as well apply to that truck drving school, Truckmasters, I think it was...

Sink r8

Alfaromeo,

What's a CH 33?

acl65pilot

Alfa;
I agree that LLC is the one with the biggest issues. Our management agrees. As for UAUA. They have assets to sell, but that has not been working well for them. As for AMR, we could devote a lot to that.
As I have stated, we are the best of the worst. The one thing that keeps me awake is our (DAL's) burn rate. We are going though a lot of cash. That cannot continue. If it does, the saving grace is that we have access to capital that others do no.
It may be ugly but if we (airlines) use the last man standing principle, we will be that last man.

Look at the short sales etc too.

What I have noticed the last few weeks, is a cohesive well thought out plan by our leaders. It is starting to take shape. We have been trying to see where things were headed. Now that they have a better idea, a plan is forming. What I see them doing is cutting more back office employees, and this time it may not be with early outs.