I think you're spot on about the very small window for wide body flying in today's Delta. If you're getting 2-3 legs a day on 3 day trips, that beats the heck out of 3-4 leg days on 4-5 day narrow body trips (and yes, it happens on the 737) at Delta. Finally, Marcal's experience is not the current situation at Delta wrt narrow body domestic flying. There are a LOT of redeyes in the narrow body bid packages that are often in the same trip with 3-4 leg days and 10-11 hour layovers (9 if you dead head out next day). So that whole feeling good and rested bit about Delta domestic may have been true in his time, but not today.

Hope all the best for you and the boys at SWA.

 

Your calculator is just that... a calculator. Actual bidding and progression is non-linear. People's bidding practices are also non-linear and scattered. I'm approaching 10 years in and can hold any aircraft as an FO out of ATL as well as 88 and 717 captain. Choice is the spice of life! I've had 2 students recently who left SWA after a bit for DL.

With that said, you can't beat driving into work. I moved to mecca and it was the best decision possible!

 

You should run the numbers for SWA vs. UAL, especially given the similarly located junior domiciles (OAK/SFO). Also, there is a significantly larger impact widebody flying would have upon pay, QOL, and general career progression.

That would be much more informative for anyone living west of the Rockies.

 

Have you seen the range on the CSs? I wouldn't be surprised if we see long thin routes too. Maybe QOL will finally come to the NBs. One can hope.

http://commercialaircraft.bombardier.com/en/cseries/Flexibility/Range-Capabilities.html

 

You are assuming Delta and Southwest will have similar pay and work rules during the next 35 years...Gary feels he has to be competitive with other LCCs so that is a big assumption...

 

I'd rather be an International wide body FO for the rest of my career at Delta with 17-18 days off every month than be a 737 CA flying 4 legs a day to the same places all the time at SWA. Anyone who thinks narrow body flying 4-5 legs a day is an easy job is kidding themselves. Just an opinion but I have done both and for me it would be Delta hands down due to the variety of flying. The same can be said for American or United. If I was in my early 30's, I'd get the hell out of SWA ASAP unless I was living in base and drove to work. Even then, it would be a hard pill to swallow because of the fact that I'd be flying a 737 forever. Not my cup of tea and just an opinion.

Also, SWA, as successful as it may be and there are no doubts about that, is still a low cost carrier. American, Delta and United are global airlines. Something to think about.

 

You are absolutely right. Unfortunately all I can do is assume, know what I know today, and make a decision that is best for my family based on what I know today and what I think it will be like tomorrow.

I just keep coming back to the simple fact that with so much uncertainty I should just pick the airline that will provide my family with the best quality of life and that airline is Southwest pretty much due to the fact I can drive to work and have pretty good control over my schedule at all seniorities.

 

Trust me if it weren't for the fact I live near a Southwest only base (MCO) then this wouldn't even be a question, but I know me and I know I will choose weekends, holidays, and flexibility over widebody flying so when I look at the numbers for a decent mid level seniority on a widebody in ATL based on today's distribution I realize that time spent in a widebody will be short for me. But that's just me and knowing my schedule preferences so if the majority of my career will be spent in narrowbodies why not drive to work and enjoy the schedule flexibility that Southwest offers?

If I thought I could spend the majority of my career in a widebody commuting to a 3 day trip that was commutable on both ends, had one leg the first day, one leg the last day, and 30 hours off in Rome, etc then I would be all over that, but realistically speaking especially considering Delta is buying a lot of narrowbodies and loves the term "joint venture" that type of flying will make up a small part of my career so as nice as the "dream" of 9-12 days a month flying a 777 across the pond unfortunately that will just have to stay just that, a dream.

 

I only ran the numbers for ATL considering I live in the southeast and about the only commute I would consider would be a short one to ATL. I never even applied to United. With that said, I would be happy to share the file with anyone who wanted to adjust the numbers. The file isn't anything special. My numbers all came from the Delta guys lakeside-graphics site. I just interpreted the numbers as to how they applied to where I live and what I would most likely fly.

 

ATL might not be the best reference. MCO-ATL commuting is one of the tougher ones in the system. I know a lot of pilots who have chosen to do the MCO-NYC commute because it has a lot more commuting options (Delta, United, AA, Jet Blue, Spirit) and their seniority on respective equipment is light-years ahead of their ATL counterparts. Just another factor to consider.