DEC Base transfer times
 

So on the new handout advertising the direct entry captain program now at Envoy, they are stating reserve time in LGA will be less then 3 months. Also they are advertising base transfer times after training to ORD at 3 month, MIA 6 months, and DFW 12 months.

Curious if you all think this is possible or not. Supposedly these numbers are backed up by data at the moment.

Reserve in LGA will be a lot longer than 3 months and base transfer to DFW will be a lot longer than 12 months. Pretty sure on those two unless something drastic changes. I’m less familiar with ORD and MIA but I’d be willing bet that those two numbers are outright lies too.

DEC Base transfer times
 

If the projections of 130 lines by may is accurate. The calculation for reserve is probably not as far off as you might think.


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I'm an fo in training now, but there are 4 Direct entry captains in my class. One of the guys teaching indoc indicated that it would be 6-12 months to hold mia as a captain. They are pretty vague about projections (understandably).

I just had another look at the seniority numbers in DECS for each seat in each base. I don’t know what the date of hire is for those seniority numbers but I can say I was hired well over 12 months ago and make some comparisons. I’m not senior enough to hold CA MIA, CA ORD, or CA DFW. I am senior enough to hold CA LGA. Now, I understand that things change such that things that have happend or are happening now don’t always correlate directly to what is going to happen BUT given the large number of FOs hired over the last couple years will be reaching upgrade qualifications soon AND they will be senior to the direct entry captains, that it’s far more likely that seniority will play out worse for these direct entry captains than it would for me. THAT’s why I say something drastic needs to happen for those projections to be right.

Very good points. You could hold ORD CA. A (summer 17)1900 seniority number got ORD CA on the last bid. He just hasn't finished training yet. I think their most accurate predictions are going to be base transfer to ORD and holding a line in LGA. Three months to hold a line in LGA may be a bit of a stretch. I'd guess it's more likely to range from three to six months.

I really don't see anyone holding DFW as a DEC for more than two years. We had so many older guys coming here just to get DFW 175 and once they get the upgrade then they will be pushing for a DFW base. Unfortunately I see people getting DFW and then getting kicked out of DFW just like it has happened this last vacancy.

I have heard of Fall of 17 hires getting ORD captain. So I buy the 3 month base transfer after training at the moment.

I’m curious though how the 16 and 17 new hires upgrading will change things. Or if there will be enough attrition off the top to make up for it.

Forgot to mention that it looks like I’d still be on reserve if I was a CA in LGA right now when I look at the reseve list (perhaps the guys senior to me are bidding reserve on purpose but I don’t think so). Only way I see the direct entry captains coming off reserve in less than a year would be if there really is this sudden expansion to the number of lines in LGA such that there are more lines (or nearly more lines) than CAs there (it happened to FOs in ORD last summer so it’s possible) or perhaps a new base opening that creates the same situation. But even that would be temporary. The direct entry captains will need captains junior to them to really move off reserve and base transfer. The vast majority of the new captains over the next 2 years will be senior to them.

True. But, in regards to LGA line holding, the vast majority are also not planning to stay in NY.