Beer is on me if they don't, how bow dah?

OFC currently has more FOs per line than DFW 175 right now. Doubt it.

Cash me outside.

I'll take that beer!


Sub 6 year flow will happen. But not for a new hire today.

Numbers support it, albeit marginally. We'll see January 2025!

I'd like to see those numbers.

approx. 50% attrition outside flow last year. New hire is ~2100 slots from flow. Run the numbers, they're not far off. I said marginally. Any changes and it might jump to 7, but with the hiring increasing at all legacies, I bet it only gets better.

I’d be surprised if it wasn’t better than 6 years. There’s an incredible amount of attrition to be had as hiring continues to ramp up at the legacies and majors for the foreseeable future. Of course, any number of variables could happen making the flow much shorter or much longer. Therefore, keep your apps updated and see what happens — worst case you end up at AA someday ... maybe.

Exactly. But positive comments aren't welcome here, so you need to tone it down.

The higher up you are on the seniority list you are, the more of that 50% attrition will be behind you and not effect your flow. I also suspect the math you're using assumes the flow rate will remain the same as it is now (the requirements actually decrease significantly after the protected pilots are gone after this year).

You still have to get through a huge amount of new hires in late '16 and all of '17. Those earlier guys on that wave will have a sub 6 year flow... some very few might have sub 4. After those earlier guys, the number shoot up. By the time you get to '18 hires, you have to assume that all the predicted attrition is senior to them to be sub 6 years and it's worse after that.