The union list does not consider lifers and outside attrition?

 

It skips the lifers. It doesn’t account for outside attrition because that’s not a known quantity.

 

So it is pretty much the worst case scenario.

 

Why not just use an average? Not accounting for it at all is probably the most inaccurate way.

 

Because then people would complain that it’s not accurate and too optimistic.

 

Essentially. That’s why most people’s flow date moves closer slowly as actual attrition is accounted for.

 

As I understand, the Union flow calculation includes December classes which has never happened. There is SUPPOSED to be one this year. But by including the December classes, that has helped to account for attrition.

 

Correct. Plus the fact that historically the flow has taken longer than advertised. Look at last year for example, there were 3 months that AA stopped hiring. Delta is currently in a hiring freeze as well (or was for the summer months at least). And if AA hires less than 58 for the month then we send less. And it only gets slower after the protected pilots flow. I would view the union’s projection as a best case scenario. I’m sure a lot of new guys on here who are overly hopeful will disagree but history backs up my claim.

 

The union list is purely attrition due to flow

 

Way too many variables to account for in projecting flow for anyone hired recently. No way to put out any kind of semi accurate projection for more than 1-3ish years out. In my personal and humble opinion, whether you're talking 6 years from now or 9 years from now, this industry will look COMPLETELY different in that time frame. There's no way that AA's regional feed and flow picture will look like it does currently. I have no idea what it will look like, but I can almost guarantee it will not look like it currently does. I'd be semi surprised if Envoy will exist in any shape or form that represents its current state in 9 years. We are just beginning to see the start of a very interesting road up ahead of us that will no doubt have some very surprising twists and turns. Anyone that's been in this game for more than a year or two knows that volatility is the name of the game.