New FO
09-15-2018, 08:41 PM
#51
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Nov 2016
Posts: 178
Originally Posted by bigtime209
Way too many variables to account for in projecting flow for anyone hired recently. No way to put out any kind of semi accurate projection for more than 1-3ish years out. In my personal and humble opinion, whether you're talking 6 years from now or 9 years from now, this industry will look COMPLETELY different in that time frame. There's no way that AA's regional feed and flow picture will look like it does currently. I have no idea what it will look like, but I can almost guarantee it will not look like it currently does. I'd be semi surprised if Envoy will exist in any shape or form that represents its current state in 9 years. We are just beginning to see the start of a very interesting road up ahead of us that will no doubt have some very surprising twists and turns. Anyone that's been in this game for more than a year or two knows that volatility is the name of the game.
You’re always going to have some people unhappy about the way things could turn out.
09-15-2018, 09:57 PM
#52
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jun 2006
Posts: 1,523
Originally Posted by 402FreightDog
How many of the age 60 plus “lifers” would take early retirement if they were to eliminate Envoy and the regional feed and staple it to the bottom of AA.
You’re always going to have some people unhappy about the way things could turn out.
You’re always going to have some people unhappy about the way things could turn out.
09-16-2018, 02:20 AM
#53
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Nov 2016
Posts: 178
Originally Posted by bigtime209
You must be new. You're missing the point. First point, there are only roughly 200 something lifers left on the seniority list. You're assuming that the only alternative to the current course is shutting down Envoy and stapling all of the pilots to the AA seniority list. The point is, there's no way of knowing what will happen in the coming years. There's no way of knowing if the pipe dream of a staple to the AA list (a pipe dream that has been out there for many, many years) will happen, whether or not Envoy and Piedmont will merge, whether or not all 3 wholly owned regionals will merge, whether or not there will be a major consolidation of all regionals will occur, leaving just a handful of regionals left across the entire market, whether or not there will be a consolation of the regionals into just one remaining regional, whether the regionals dry up altogether with just the majors left standing, who the hell knows??? The point is, you can't reasonably make a projection for flow, much less the the entire industry, 6-9 years from now by taking into account the current market trend. As I said before, anyone who's been in the game for longer than a year or two knows that the industry usually changes drastically within a 5 year span. Go back 30 years from now. Look at every 5 year segment. Have those 5 years throughout that time been anything alike? Anyone hired in the last year or so that thinks they're just gonna ride out the wave and flow down the line a few years from now is in for a rude awakening.
Last edited by 402FreightDog; 09-16-2018 at 02:37 AM.
09-16-2018, 01:22 PM
#55
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: May 2016
Posts: 1,609
Originally Posted by TransWorld
Do you mean on track for 2018? If so, I agree.
AA total hires for 2017 were 645.
AA total hires for 2017 were 645.
We may flow 200 per year and we hired 900. The company can't claim that 700+ 2017 pilots will leave outside the flow before 5 years.
