Leaving for a U/LCC
 

What, in your opinion, is the breakeven point for when it is worth it to stay at Envoy for the flow or one of the 'Big 6' versus leaving early for a low cost carrier? Is it worth it to leave with SIC time only or at least stay until 1,000 TPIC?

Additional Thoughts:
Hiring is going to be through the roof at the legacies next year and for years to come. Delta is hiring around 1,000+ pilots, AA is projected to be hiring 1,300+ pilots, United just came out and said they're hiring over 10,000+ pilots over the next decade. None of this is surprising, but things are starting to happen.

The [Ultra] Low Cost Carriers are becoming career destination airlines. Spirit & Frontier have really nice contracts that will likely get even bigger improvements in the next few years. Allegiant is due for a new contract soon. Even Sun Country will be looking at a new contract next year. Waiting around at Envoy for an AA flow is less and less attractive.

AA, as a company, is a mess and is getting hammered by some LCCs, particularly Spirit. It's going to be UGLY when the economy turns.

Waiting 7-9 years to flow for a new hire hardly seems worth it given their relatively seniority by the time they'd make it to mainline.

Sounds like you’re talking yourself into a LCC.

The older you are, the better off you are bouncing for a LCC as quick as you can and get seniority now, upgrade as quick as possible and maximize CA pay now.

There’s too many variables though to give a true one size fits all answer.

Personal opinion is Spirit looks better than Frontier. They have some international ops (how many more domestic only carriers do we need...) and are making efforts to redo their brand and image. Sure the big three are loosing pilots due to retirements but what NEW ROUTES do they have ? More flights to Vegas ? What is "different" about one to the other, an important element if the economy goes south.

I think Spirit (and yes, Frontier) are good places to hang out while you wait for Delta to call. If they never call, you are a captain soon in 5 yrs or less and prob 200k+ flying new equipment.

Remember, in 1990, SWA was a "low cost" carrier that "only" offered peanuts. Imagine the SWA FO in 1990 who quit because TWA called him.

Wouldn't he be a G4 CA at AA now?

uh, no.
Do you have any idea how that merger went down?

Some TWA guys weren't called back until 2014. A 1988 TWA hire is junior to a 2006 US Air new hire.

Yea, my bad. I forgot how badly AA screwed over the TWA guys.

Do it, Spirit is awesome. Job is super easy, schedule flexibility is great and after first year the pay is pretty good.

You are obviously anti-flow. As you should be. It is useless for a new hire as it isn't even guaranteed, and could take 9+ years. If you wait that long for flow you will be at the bottom of the mass hiring sitting stagnant for 15-20 years (from hire date)... or be half way up seniority at an LCC in 5 years. I will be leaving if I get the CJO from Spirit and I plan on making it my last job.

I took the offer from Spirit over waiting 3 more months for an interview at Delta. (SSP program with Endeavor). I don’t have any regret and would probably do it again. Upgrades here is just at 3 years and most of our CA are making 200K-300K. It’s not a bad place to make it as your final stop.

Same at a few of the ACMI’s now too
Kalitta, Omni & ATI all have good contracts. Both K4 and Omni first year FO rates are $117ph and CA tops at $297ph. Home basing, no crashpads, very fast upgrade.