The “flow” won’t be back for some time. If I had to guess, two years.

why?
........

I think the biggest issue is training backlog at AA. They displaced a huge number of pilots by parking the 190, 75/76, and 330. They also had quite a few out on furlough. I don’t think they’ll be able to train new hires for quite a while.


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Most of the guys displaced have already been retrained.

How many are needing training still? How many can they get through in a month? How long will it take to get everyone trained and current?

How many?

How many?

How long? Is quite a while a year? Two years? Three?

Why would APA agree to a no furlough thru 2022 for scope concessions then?

potato tomato. it's a concession

The way I see it, which I openly admit is just one persons opinion, is that they wouldn't have agreed to furlough protection if it wasn't needed.

APA either knows that furloughs might be coming or doesnt see enough positive news to bargain for other gains. If they thought AA was going to be hiring in the next year, I feel like they would have gone after something besides protections. I dont know how much the scope grievance would have been worth, but it would have been something.

I agree about the RJ's, which again kinda makes you think AA isnt about to start carving out pilots from their profitable operation, at least not soon. When you add all of that in with the other things going against us such as fleet reductions, more lockdowns internationally and a lack of business travel, makes me feel like we are looking at two years before flows start.

I hope I am wrong, it would be fantastic for all. The situation just doesnt seem to warrant it in this posters opinion.

Well from the sound of things the Piedmont/Envoy merger rumor seems to be growing some legs finally. Has anyone been hearing these rumors lately?

That rumor has been around for years. Apparently Piedmont has been doing some consolidating in their management team. We all know a merger would save AAG money so who knows

Uhh, no.

Looks like you created a new profile to stir $h!+.

You’re assumption is (in the words of Donald J Trump), wrong.

Not an assumption. You only have seven (now eight) posts that are all from today and all are smack talk.

#calledout!


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Talking to one of the training depart. Those pilots that were displaced have already been trained and back on the line.

your grammar is (in the words of Joe Biden), “You know, the thing”.

Yeah but what are you wearing, Jake from State Farm?

Jake, are you my insurance carrier?

Come on man!

Is my understanding correct that the company plans on flowing 20 a month indefinitely, even with the next flow group?

I’m referencing what was talked about in the last union conference call.

C’mon, man. It’s five year flow through ATTRITION!

Even at 20/month, that’s only 1200 in five years, which is roughly half the seniority list. You better be putting in your own application and not expecting the flow to do it for you.

I never said anything about believing in a 5 year flow. I just asked for clarification on today’s discussion on 20 a month being a permanent thing.

I’m next to flowing so unless United calls in the next 6 months it’s flow for me

That is not what I understood from the call. I understood that ENY is preparing to flow 20/mo, but that was based on the assumption that AA would hire 1000 next year. If AA only hires 600 (as they have publicly stated), it would be 13/mo.

Seems to me like a “plan for the worst” kind of scenario from management. They plan to hire to cover 20/mo leaving, just in case that’s what they are forced into.

Ok well that makes sense.

Missed the call, but the interesting tidbit in all that from my understanding is that it's 25% of all AA new hire training slots in that calendar year, not monthly like it used to be with prior groups (or formula, whichever is less, but the company can always send more per 15-01).
So they can absolutely flow 20/mo for a few months and see what happens later if they are so inclined.

I am very well aware of the formula and am very well aware that based on the current hiring projection at AA we will be seeing 12.5 flows per month once the DOS group starts flowing. What I was wondering was if maybe a new flow number was worked into the DOS flow group. Historically the company has always increased the flow number prior to the next group flowing whether to settle a grievance or just attract new hires. I was simply asking if that had happened but someone already answered that as no.

ONE of the problems with the flow equation is that if AA hires MORE than 80 in a month, there is a loss for ENY because Mgt definitely won’t let more than 20 go in a month. If the equation is truly 25% of new hires for the YEAR but I don’t see how they can really do that. It has to be really per class or at worst per month. But again if you look at a monthly number, what if because of the dates/day of the week they start classes there are three classes in a month with 40 each? That would mean 120 one month and I just don’t see ENY letting an extra 10 pilots go, even if it averages out. Also if looking at it on a YEARLY percentage, what happens if for some reason the music stops again and they quit hiring? What if the total number of ENY pilots was greater than 25% because they flowed more than 25% in a class? Or worse if they were doing less than 25% because they were going to “make it up” at the end of the year??

And I’m just throwing that out there, because, well, because it’s another chance for people who might be reading this to be reminded that the numbers just don’t work.

I wasn't there, but I'd imagine that fine little tidbit was worked into 15-01 just for that reason - to gain more flexibility for the company. Send less when staffing is tough to be exact. But then when the flow stops, so does the recruitment effort. There are only so many cadets and, correct me if I'm wrong, RTP is on hold (?).
With everyone hiring and the outside attrition numbers starting to look healthy, a real effort will need to happen to #MEGA

No.
If AA hires 0 in January, then Envoy flows 0. And if AA hires 60 in February, Envoy still only flows 15.

There's also a possibility that they're planning for 20/mo because they know something about AA hiring the rest of us don't. This possibility was referenced to more than once during the all call yesterday.

dera, which part of the language being different for the DOS group in 15-01 is not understandable?
How it gets applied is another question, but "in the calendar year" does not appear anywhere in the prior groups and I don't believe in accidental nature of any legal language.