Historically, is this something where one company leads and all others follow? Does it become an industry wide event? Or just one where it affects companies here and there? How does a parent company pause in hiring affect the wholly owned regionals?

We know about certain majors putting a stop on hiring (Spirit/Southwest, etc.). Now we're seeing GoJet delay classes until 2025. American is pausing their own classes through the summer.

Does this trickle down to Envoy? We all know about the new aircraft coming to Envoy in 2024 - they've been touting every new addition each time on social media. Does that mean hiring doesn't stop here, or will American dictate a slowdown as well for their child companies?

 

The big three + Southwest slowed hiring due to Boeing not being able to certify and deliver aircraft in a timely manner. No new planes + no aircraft retirements = no growth and no need for new pilots outside of covering retirements. Envoy (through AA) does not have orders in for Boeing aircraft. Embraer has been great at on time deliveries.

 

It certainly can. Although each regional may have specific factors that affect their hiring strategy, if the airlines at the top pull back hiring significantly then there's significantly fewer people leaving the regionals for the majors. If there are LCC's like Spirit with many pilots leaving then that cuts into the attrition rates at regionals also. The pain flows downhill.

I know the pain is already being felt in a big way by 1500-2000 hr pilots who can't get 121 interviews.

The crazy hiring tsunami is over, and regional FO's can't expect to go directly to majors like they were in recent years. The more normal pathway of having to upgrade to Captain and build some PIC multi turbine are likely here again for most of us... if we can actually win the lottery of being in one of those monthly classes of 30 from a pool of several thousand qualified applicants and get a regional CJO.

 

While I try to stay positive, I'm keeping expectations low in this current enviroment. Some people will argue the market today is still better than it was pre COVID. I'm not entirely sure if I agree with that or not. It is a little more tough for CFIs trying to join the 121 world. I hit mins 6 months ago, still waiting to start somewhere. I got my start date pushed at PSA 3 times before I finally gave up with them. Still have the CJO there, but I have not heard much from them. They cite a CA shortage as the reasons for their woes.

I interviewed at ENY last month, and have orientation 4/11. Fingers crossed that sticks. I've been burned before, just hope it doesn't happen again. Envoy seems more serious about starting FOs. I don't have the numbers, but people have claimed Envoy has a CA surplus. That there alone is an advantage they have over other regionals right now. With the majors slowing down, you'll see some CA upgrades and rentention as well which will help. Fingers crossed furloughed NK pilots don't come for our jobs! /s

 

We know growth is going to continue at Envoy for the next few years and attrition is going to slow. Envoy had been losing about 40 pilots a month including 16 captains a month to flow. Rumor has it there would be no flow in March and during the summer. Hiring is not going to suddenly stop due to slower attrition because of growth plans. We are still getting "new" used E170s/E175s and delivery of those will not be slowed down even if Embraer has problems delivering planes.

Envoy has traditionally given hiring preference to cadets, DECs, and high time FOs. If hiring slows down a bit, they likely will slow down hiring of off the street FOs at minimums. If they suddenly decide they only need a few off the street FOs a month, it will get more competitive and they will hire the people with more flight hours and/or fewer failures. Envoy may also get more DECs when FOs at other airlines realize they can no longer go straight to a legacy, and if they have to upgrade, they can get a large bonus for going to Envoy to upgrade. If they have enough cadets reaching minimums, there may be some months when they don't hire off the street 1500 hour FOs at all.

The sky isn't falling. Competition is heating up.

 

Envoy has more FOs than captains on paper. We do have 5 zero time lines available for captains in Miami and Chicago next month, which is when you can bid to stay home for a month for zero pay. The reserve captains in Phoenix have not been flying very much, especially the senior ones. Envoy has been very successful at attracting DECs and has a lot of people who only want to fly for American because they live in or near American bases. I think a captain surplus is an exaggeration but we have definitely not been affected as strongly as other airlines by the regional captain shortage. I am flying about 50 hours a month as a DFW reserve captain who is trying to fly.

I think the last time Envoy pushed back class dates for FOs was when they raised the pay rates in June 2022 and had a sudden influx of DEC candidates they chose to train instead. I think Envoy is unlikely to push back your class date now unless something more dramatic happens.

 

I can personally attest to this.

 

Who have you not applied too...apply to those airlines.

 

personally, ive applied to everyone. nothing hah have been waiting to schedule an interview with 00 for awhile.

 

I would think Envoy would want to keep classes moving. Pilots are still leaving even with the slowdowns, and 15.g.4 allows old Slick Ric to have all the captains that he needs. If anything, Ric and Pedro want to show Vasu and Isom that they can keep hiring at a fast pace because those future 175's orders aren't all allocated. Envoy wants them for their own and doesn't want to see PDT get them. They will lay out their argument as to why they should fly them and not someone else, and it will be a better argument if they can make their hiring goals.