When does the rest of the news come out?

As soon as cujo puts down the crack rock he's smoking

"Envoy to Retain More CRJ-700 Flying: Pedro's announcement today means that we will transfer 12 instead of 18 CRJ-700s to PSA during 2015. Envoy will continue to fly the remaining fleet of 35 CRJ-700s until transfers to PSA resume in of the second half of 2016. This translates into an additional 30 Captain positions, bringing our forecasted requirement for Captain upgrades between now and the end of 2016 to around 230. This is terrific news, expect a new vacancy bid shortly to cover these new flying requirements."

[ sound of heels clicking together ] There's no place like home, there's no place like home, there's no place......... :rolleyes:

That's 12.7 upgrades monthly. Of course, they will be flowing 20 captains/month until later this year, then theoretically 30 captains/month. Couple that to an average of 15-20 month going elsewhere (a few captains) and that means Envoy shrinks. It HAS to. If they are only going to upgrade 13 pilots/month to captain and 20 and soon 30 will be flowing (which doesn't include outside captain attrition), the math gets fuzzier UNLESS, Envoy shrinks.

Sounds VERY shaky to me to claim it's a good time to be an Envoy pilot. A more senior one about to upgrade or flow, perhaps, but a new-hire joining a still shrinking carrier dependent on fuzzy math and "projections" ?

Caveat Emptor.

Sounds to me this is an inadvertent admission Envoy will indeed continue to shrink.

230 upgrades drops most junior captain to mid '08 hire.

We know Envoy is going to continue to shrink...20 to PDT, 30 to XJet, 20 to TSA. Mgmt is just omitting these facts in hope that we forget about the ERJs disappearing.

Then it will jump to 2010. 2011 will take a while to get through.. then another jump to 2013.. 2013-2015 will move more quickly because there isn't that many compared to where we are now. 7yr upgrade for current senior FO's doesn't mean 7yr upgrade for new hires..

Pilots still here by DOH:

2007 - 248 (about Half are already CA's)
2008 - 158
2009 - 0
2010 - 122
2011 - 350
2012 - 8
2013 - 94
2014 - 86
2015 - 27

Correct. Also another 20 Capts selected to flow today.

And if hired today that puts about 965 pilots ahead of you or using rws estimate of 230, 730 pilots to upgrade Jan 2017 before they can. That makes upgrade about 3-3.5 right now.

BTW there is more good news coming.

If so, in 1.5 years at the end of 2016 that will make the most junior captain an 8.5 year pilot, yet under mason........er cujo665 and his buddy the Volleyball's claims, the Envoy new-hire of today would be 1 year from upgrade as a 1.5 year pilot with 7 years difference in longevity.

Fuzzy.........very, very fuzzy. :cool:

But even more so, I think it's overly optimistic.