A wordsmith? Here is the exact quote you posted in November, on this site:

"Check your company e-mail. AAG plainly stated that they wanted 40 per month starting in January. You can plan on it happening."

How dare I quote your actual words and expect them to be truthful, what jerk I am.

So you have heard of the true up clause......

That was and is a factual statement you are quoting. The staffing model that Envoy runs will ultimately be the decider for January. Yes, you could see 40 but just knowing where we are on staffing right now, they could bring the number down some. However, with the massive numbers of new hires coming in, we will soon see an overage in some statuses which will allow the 40/month to happen.

Don't overthink things or make it hard on yourself. The flow IS working as intended and the numbers are large and at baseline projections or BETTER.

Of course I've heard of it, just not sure it is rock solid.

Nice backtrack. We knew staffing was bad when you made the claim.

AFAIK, what it says is that when AA has hired 1648 pilots, 824 must be from Eagle (Envoy). I can't find the language, maybe someone else can.

Critical coverage declared for January. LTFO return day blanket denial HI6 sent out. Even Ms. Cleo can see what the staffing model that Envoy runs will ultimately decide for January.

Like I said I wasn't sure of the exact language, and I've asked a few union people and gotten mixed answers. I of course hope you are right, because then they'll pretty much have to send more than 30/mo for at least some of January through April or May.

Right now we are ahead of the curve at 62.1%, according to Wilson's email, so there is no need to send more than 30 per month. In fact, they could withhold as much as legal in order to catch us up with the 50% aggregate. I'm not saying they will or they won't, but we are currently ahead of the curve, and somehow I feel like it will be exactly 1648 guys hired when we send the 824th. We will know in a few months!

Yeah, I guess it depends on the size of the AA classes. I've heard anywhere from 750 to 1000 new hires there for 2017. In the past I think their summer classes have been a little smaller, so it seems that maybe the first 3 or 4 months they will have to run at capacity in the schoolhouse if they will make 800 or so for the year. If they manage 80-90/mo for the first quarter of the year we may fall behind the aggregate...or not. It's all just speculation.

It does look like the finishing of the 824 might be a couple of months before the 40th 175, so we will probably have some slim months of flow over the summer.