Yeah, SGU isn't even investing in pilot recruitment for the XJT side. It appears all the XJT pilot recruitment $ is coming from UAL right now.

It has nothing to do with investment. It takes forever for the FAA to sign off a new type on a certificate. So United would basically be buying pilots and no aircraft. It would be cheaper to hire them off the street. Skywest has nutered the once great jetlink... expressjet.

UAL tried this with CummutAir and it didn’t work so well. I think in order for this to work you need a large experience base to begin with as Endeavor did on the DAL side. They were able to easily absorb experienced XJT pilots from the CRJ side as the DAL contract wound down, but they weren’t starting from scratch.

Who owns the 145’s?

I only looked at about 6. All were leased from Wells Fargo.

Wells Fargo is the lessor and UAL signed the lease.

That's what I pretty much figured.

If UAL acquires XJT, UAL already “own” the 145’s (even though they are leasing them from Wells Fargo). XJT pilots would be an excellent fit. UAL gets the 121 certificate, the pilots and UAL already has the planes.

Rumor is they would come from GoJets.

That’s where the scope would come from. I still think the actual planes are going to come from ASA

From what I've been told United owns all the E-145. Even the ones parked in the desert. Part of the United Continental deal.

701EV

United “Owens the leases” and not he planes. They go back to the bank in the end.

Exactly. UA will string the L-XJT pilots long enough to drop The leases then say “sorry”. SkyWest inc will take all CRJ’s 200’s and 700’s and put them in the “other side”. (Has already started) leaving XJT by this time next year all ERJ145’s..

I'm glad I'm out of the , flying people business, much easier with boxes.

Don’t the United pilots have a scope clause that prevents United from owning a regional?

Close. The Flight Attendant contract at United prevents them from owning a majority share in any regional.

Considering recent trends in the industry UA has really put themselves at a disadvantage with that agreement. Who decided that was a good idea lol.
I mean, they’ve got serious leverage with that language. Smart!

Not my understanding. They can own a regional, it just has to be staffed by UAL FAs.

That is true as well.

As far as airframe ownership we're actually starting to see that United is buying the 145s. The placards on the flight deck door are starting to say United Continental instead of Wells Fargo bank.

It’s OK.

Easy to bribe them with kittens. I figure a kitten 6 pack crazy cat lady starter kit would suffice:

Does anyone think United FAs would want to staff our lowly 145s? I'm sure they're just dying to be able to bid for those CAK overnights.

I think anyone believing the FA contract would prevent United ownership is fooling themselves. If United has the will, they will find a way. ($)

We will see if they do.

You're assuming old UAL/Continental FA's would act rationally. That is a really big assumption.

Now that's funny.

Anyone notice the lack of advertising for pilot recruitment ?

To even speculate if u/cal would be interested in Exjet is a very dim thought. Soon, the Asa side will be gone with the completion of the aa contract and sgu will, “place” the remaining aircraft with the lowest cost side.

The elephant in the room that no one is talking about is $70 oil, soon to be $100 that will, “surely” kill off the 145.

Surejet wont make it through September.

TFAYD.

Right. United will immediately be able to replace all current 145 flying with scoped out 175s and mainline narrowbodies by September.

Dim thought: Exhibit A

I agree with the lack of recruiting money especially compared to Inc.
Also, I'm neutral on our future, maybe 50/50.
But I think September is rather unrealistic. UAL will still need the feed to fill the larger jets and they don't have anything they can use to replace the 145 at this point, except maybe CRJ's. They already tried to transfer 145s to CommutAir and that fell flat. If they announced today the transfer of flying to someone else it would probably take a year to do so.

I’m thinking, everyone will be surprised at how fast they wind down surejet.

Aca, Eagle, comair, asa and now, surejet will go the way of the dodo only because of operating costs, (very senior pilot group with decent contract and benefits).
History cannot be ignored especially with regards to regional feed and Oscar isn’t going to change that m.o. any time soon.

Surejet won’t last long with oil @ $100.

Eagle is still around, though now Envoy. ACA and Comair were a different time- ACA after 9/11, Comair the tail end of the "great recession" when you could look under any overpass near an airport and find 12 out of work pilots. It took Endeavor over a year to absorb the RJ flying- the challenge is finding qualified captains. Not sure who would absorb 100+ worth of 145 flying right now when regionals are struggling to find pilots. I've never seen airlines so desperate for fresh meat to fill seats. Most are paying for RW pilots to get the FW time necessary for a R-ATP. While we are still top heavy, even the costs are coming in line.
You can't ignore history, but don't drive by looking in the rearview mirror. But you are right that $100 oil may throw a wrench in things.

I don’t think that United wants a bunch of tired 50 seat jets. They’re simply stuck with them because they’re maxed out on scope. The Max starts operating in 2 weeks. They’re 161 on the way and each one can replace the available seats of 3.5 rj’s. The pilots can be had for the cost of an interview. Why buy the cow when you can get the milk for free?

Somewhat agree with your statements.
Cost will be inline with projections when Exjet is gone and sgu is free of the union and our contract comparison.
I think you meant REGIONAL airlines are struggling to find meat.
The legacy’s are doing just fine :D

On the positive side
 

Im happy for those that have moved on to better things, thanks to SGU and United; competitors have snapped up some really good people. People are just as important as commodities.

Reality
 

That’s very human of you to consider individuals over the corporate profile. However, that’s not how the mormon tabernacle views you.
Pilots are a variable expense that can be manipulated, (canned and rehired @ non union shop @ first year pay) vs. fixed costs such as fuel, insurance and asm’s.
I am not here to pi$$ on anyone’s career expectations but when I see this rampant cheerleading about a proposed purchase option, it just makes me think there’s a presence here that wants to dilute the truth.
Focus on the maths and the truth will be revealed.
Sgu doesn’t like you, they like $ and you cost too much !!!:eek:

Yes, I meant regionals. Currently, the majors/legacy carriers still have plenty of applicants. Lack of pilots at the regional level will start to affect the majors, however, as they struggle to feed their larger airplanes. You need RJ's (or smaller airframes in general), to keep 777's full. DAL has a better handle with the C series, but UAL especially is WAY behind. Even if they put in an order today you would be looking at years before something hits the line.
I was comparing costs to other regionals in general as they are forced to increase their costs to attract pilots. I do think our costs are being hurt by the shrinking. As we get smaller the senior pilots become a larger percentage of our workforce. I rarely fly a CRJ with an FO less than 10 years.

Thats why I believe there will be a consolidation. 3 mega regionals... then a few smaller WO’s (like QX)... may take 5 years. But i think it will end up this way...

I agree. It’s overdue. I think you will see all the legacies with their own WO’s, then a few mega regionals. Inc (almost threw up in my mouth), maybe Republic. Others will be assimilated, or at least their pilots will be.

Rationale
 

Unfortunately, exjet won’t be a part of anyone’s consolidation.
No aircraft, no equipment, (other than simulators) and no real estate.
Exjet is basically a crew leasing company that is losing pilots to the competition and legacy’s, in that order.
Even though the legacy’s will have recruitment problems within 5-10 years, there’s still almost 10,000 regional pilots to draw from.
That kicks the can for them.
The c series mitsu, and 175\190 will most likely be mainline aircraft.

Pretty common in a capital lease for the ownership to revert to the lessee at the residual value of the aircraft. Wells Fargo wouldn’t want to own the 145’s and would have set the residual conservatively low. I suspect UnitedContinental used the aircraft to raise cash during a period when cash was needed. Now, as leases end, the ownership is reverting. All this should be in their annual report.

Cool yo. Is it a good thing or bad thing or neutral thing?

It is a neutral thing. Just one part of their strategy.

In the old world, the majors owned (or leased) all the airframes and found a staffing agency to crew them. The only exception to that model is SKYW airlines. SKYW owns (or leases) almost all airframes. There are a handful that are DL owned.

That provides more leverage for SKYW to negotiate with cash strapped majors and provides more stability to the employees as it is much harder to whipsaw.

Everyone else pretty much staffs aircraft that are owned by AA, DL or UA.