Search
Notices

Here it comes

Thread Tools
 
Search this Thread
 
Old 03-31-2019, 03:36 PM
  #11  
Gets Weekends Off
 
HIFLYR's Avatar
 
Joined APC: Sep 2007
Position: 777 Captain in Training
Posts: 1,457
Default

Originally Posted by heavycargo View Post
I think the first step is to be honest about the current changing landscape. What use to be a duopoly is about to seriously change.

Secondly, get rid of the notion that the old way of doing business is going to guarantee future security. Yes, there is value to having a logistic network that is well trenched, however that's the old way of thinking in terms of how things work today. Technology and the ability to quickly deploy a massive army of individuals with cell phones to help in any city around the world has changed the way of doing business. Ask the Yellow cab taxi drivers how things are working out for them these days.

I don't think its coincidental that the press in Memphis is reporting seeing more and more Amazon vans driving around town delivering packages. Amazon has put Fedex on notice in a very obvious manner.

Amazon has a valuation of almost a trillion dollars. Conservatively 3 to 4 times the operating income depending on who is reporting. They currently have the benefit of operating at a serious discount as a result of their CMI/ACMI contracts. They will continue to do this as long as its profitable. This is exactly how UPS started their airline in 1981 using Evergreen and Orion. We are not seeing anything necessarily new here with their approach. They own their own iron and they are leasing others. They have just rolled out their first 737 and there are a lot more to come.

In the early 1970s UPS was completely caught off guard when Fedex showed up on the playing field. Things seem eerily familiar.

The long term problem with Fedex is at the end of the day it's just a logistics company with many arms. Fedex is feverishly trying to reinvent itself in the wake of the changing markets creating new solutions in terms of ecommerce and supply chain logistics. It just doesn't have the appeal that Amazon does in terms of reinventing itself into a preferred household name.

It's probably a fact that over 90% of the individuals reading this post are happily paying Amazon Prime customers. Therein lies the reality and the problem that is not so obvious at the moment. Amazon has changed the way that you and the world does business. You will witness in a short period of time when your prime accounts automatically enroll you into their Amazon shipping program making it extremely easy to ship packages unlike waiting at the DMV like shipping stores or partner shopping centers. At the click of the button Amazon will command over 65% of the U.S. population enrolled in their shipping program. Automatic billing fast and easy. They are going to make money on the delivery and the pick up automatically.

Amazon has destroyed or disrupted almost every sector it has reached. Ask the freight forwarders, shipping cargo companies and others that are seeing the wave of change. Amazon owns and is operating cargo shipping across the seas. This is massive in terms of supply chain solutions.

"News of Amazon's intent to get into shipping freight across the ocean first broke last year when the company gained approval from the Federal Maritime Commission to act as a Ocean Transportation Intermediary. "

(https://www.engadget.com/2017/01/26/...ocean-freight/)

(https://www.ttnews.com/articles/rise-amazon-logistics)

People here are just thinking in terms of airplanes and airlines. Amazon has a massive footprint. Why is this important to understand or ignore if you wish?

Fred Smith has always boasted about two things which seem to protect Fedex which is his network and business to business model. The network though valuable, can be created quicker then most people believe using technology these days. What about the protected business to business model Fred hangs his hat on?

Imagine being a struggling company desperate for business and you have to make a choice who will provide your shipping needs. Fedex can get your packages from point A to B. Amazon will not only deliver your package they have the capability of plugging your business into the biggest online market place in the world they own, instantly changing the way you do business and drastically increasing your bottom line. What's the better solution? In the near future its no longer going to be good enough to just be a logistics company. At the moment I can't imagine Fedex creating an online market place that can compete with Amazon. Amazon has already won the hearts of its faithful customers it will soon earn the respect and loyalty of businesses.

Fedex needs a fresh infusion of talent which has the capability of thinking beyond it's myopic perspective and more along the lines of these internet giants. Instead they depend on their next protege Raj who is strapped with little breathing room.

"Subramaniam’s effectiveness will be compromised because he will be holding six jobs at once"

All is not well at the top. It's not coincidental that Bronczek immediately departed after Fred changed his mind concerning the mandatory retirement age excluding himself from the process. Bronczek was the golden child being groomed with big plans ahead of him. Hand him 2.5 million dollars on the way out and he can smile waiting for his 5 year noncompete to be over with.

(https://www.bizjournals.com/memphis/...ement-age.html)

"To connect the dots, one must understand the stature held by Bronczek at the $69 billion Memphis-based giant. A 42-year FedEx veteran, Bronczek was held in such high esteem, especially by Smith, that when the legendary founder relinquished the president’s role in 2016, Bronczek was tapped to succeed him. The 64-year-old Bronczek was also the only management member besides Smith to serve on the board."

"A statement issued late yesterday said Bronczek made a “personal decision” to retire."

He made a personal decision not to put up with Fred's B.S. and move on less than one month after his promotion.

(https://www.freightwaves.com/news/ai...ises-questions)

Put down the Purple Kool Aid folks and start asking the hard questions.
I will: "who do you work for?"
I have a Amazon prime account and yes sometimes I use it, however there is no delivery commitment. Most of the time the free shipping is days late and the customer has no recourse. Amazon is filled with counter-fit products "cheap knock offs" and deceptive descriptions on many items.

Could there be challenges on the horizon; yes but FedEx has proven the skeptics wrong before. Also, Amazon is facing challenges by big retailers like Walmart, Target, Lowes, etc as they are offering free shipping to store for pickup. The real value with them is being able to return it there if defective or not needed and they stand behind the product sold not some guy in China or India.
HIFLYR is offline  
Old 03-31-2019, 06:14 PM
  #12  
Gets Weekends Off
 
LunkerHunter's Avatar
 
Joined APC: Apr 2018
Position: MEM HSBY
Posts: 166
Default

Originally Posted by The Duke View Post
It’s interesting. I read articles all the time that make it seem like the Amazon threat is overblown and other articles that indicate the sky is falling regarding the Amazon threat to Fedex. Zero clarity regarding this subject.

I am concerned by the sudden departures of Cunningham and Bronczek with little to no explanation (that I’ve seen).

Can Amazon continue to do what it’s doing and develop its own network organically? How much of a network do they need? Would acquiring Fedex down the road be of any benefit to Amazon’s logistics plans? If an acquisition were to occur, would there be a whipsaw of the various pilot groups or would Amazon be content with their new “crown jewel”?

I really like working here. I need another 15-18 years. If Amazon is a genuine threat, I hope the folks up top have a plan and strategy to counteract that threat. I also wonder how public perception of Amazon over time will influence the future of that company. Seems to be a growing unease in this country about the size and scope of Amazon’s business aspirations.
I doubt Amazon will ever try to acquire FedEx. Is it possible? sure. Is it likely? No- They are working side by side with everything DHL right now from its contract airlines to it’s hub at CVG. DHL is not going to prop up the fledgling Prime Air just so Amazon can get some momentum and buy FedEx (and then put DHL completely out of business in the US???)
It makes no sense. Whatever the secret business agreement is between Amazon and DHL I’m sure it’s mutually beneficial for them in the long term.

What worries me is Amazon’s recent announcement that they are officially expanding into the Business to Business Shipping market. It’s not just about moving cheap consumer widgets anymore.

I also find Fred’d statements about Amazon confusing- in the sane interview where he used the term “fantastical” he claimed that the only threat Amazon posed was to USPS. So what does that mean for our postal contract in the future? that would be a big chunk of change to lose.
LunkerHunter is offline  
Old 03-31-2019, 07:39 PM
  #13  
Gets Weekends Off
 
PurpleToolBox's Avatar
 
Joined APC: Apr 2013
Posts: 1,622
Default

Originally Posted by heavycargo View Post
I think the first step is to be honest about the current changing landscape. What use to be a duopoly is about to seriously change.

Technology and the ability to quickly deploy a massive army of individuals with cell phones to help in any city around the world has changed the way of doing business.

I don't think its coincidental that the press in Memphis is reporting seeing more and more Amazon vans driving around town delivering packages.

The long term problem with Fedex is at the end of the day it's just a logistics company with many arms. Fedex is feverishly trying to reinvent itself in the wake of the changing markets creating new solutions in terms of ecommerce and supply chain logistics. It just doesn't have the appeal that Amazon does in terms of reinventing itself into a preferred household name.

Imagine being a struggling company desperate for business and you have to make a choice who will provide your shipping needs. Fedex can get your packages from point A to B. Amazon will not only deliver your package they have the capability of plugging your business into the biggest online market place in the world they own, instantly changing the way you do business and drastically increasing your bottom line. What's the better solution? In the near future its no longer going to be good enough to just be a logistics company. At the moment I can't imagine Fedex creating an online market place that can compete with Amazon. Amazon has already won the hearts of its faithful customers it will soon earn the respect and loyalty of businesses.

Fedex needs a fresh infusion of talent which has the capability of thinking beyond it's myopic perspective and more along the lines of these internet giants. Instead they depend on their next protege Raj who is strapped with little breathing room.

I do think Amazon is going to increase the B2B shipping model. It will help offset their costs -- transporting higher yielding freight along side their low yielding parcels.



I think FedEx's IT department SUCKS! The website sucks. Tracking a package is still a difficult process. The app sucks too. It definitely isn't going to attract the millennial generation's or their kids attention.



I live in Memphis. Starting in the early morning I see two or three Amazon trucks in my neighborhood. And there are trucks delivering all day and into the night. *Rarely* do I see a FedEx truck. However, as Fred states, eCommerce is only 12% of our business. So home deliveries aren't a majority of the FedEx portfolio.



What do you reinvent FedEx into? You seem to believe that FedEx can't create a marketplace. I think FedEx can and must in order to survive Amazon's wrath. The incentive to go with FedEx's marketplace is that you keep your business data out of the prying eyes of Amazon. Amazon sees what you are selling and then undercuts you. You are damned if you do and damned if you don't. FedEx already has relationships with thousands of businesses which could prove useful in building the marketplace.


This FedEx bot IMO will be a huge fail. Perhaps it was a publicity stunt to keep the brand name in the news?



The problem with Amazon is that they're paying extremely low rates to transport those goods. They've already caused a couple of trucking companies to go out of business who signed onto their low paying contracts. This could be a benefit to UPS/FDX or what causes our yields to fall.
PurpleToolBox is offline  
Old 04-01-2019, 12:06 AM
  #14  
Gets Weekends Off
 
Sluggo_63's Avatar
 
Joined APC: May 2005
Posts: 1,273
Default

Originally Posted by heavycargo View Post
Imagine being a struggling company desperate for business and you have to make a choice who will provide your shipping needs. Fedex can get your packages from point A to B. Amazon will not only deliver your package they have the capability of plugging your business into the biggest online market place in the world they own, instantly changing the way you do business and drastically increasing your bottom line. What's the better solution?
Edit: I should have read PurpleToolBox's post first.

If you're a struggling business with a unique product, the LAST place you want to go to is Amazon for logistic support.

I have a good friend that worked as a manager in one of Amazon's fulfillment centers (he left because how they treated him and the workers on the floor). His big takeaway from there was that Amazon is extremely data driven and keep their eye on every product that's sold. If you have a product that you are selling through their marketplace, and it sells well, Amazon just starts making their own version of that product, prices it for less and undercuts you, thereby ensuring you lose even more money, eventually forcing you out of business.

That's why I think FedEx Fulfillment is a great idea. Businesses can use FedEx as their logistics solution without worrying about Fred trying to force you out of business.

Amazon Accused of Copying Its Merchants' Best-Selling Products | Fortune

There's hundred's of stories like this out there and small businesses are learning about making a deal with the devil. The resentment is only going to grow. We'll see how that play out and if people start leaving Amazon as their online retail storefront and transition to other fulfillment services.
Sluggo_63 is offline  
Old 04-01-2019, 01:42 AM
  #15  
On Reserve
Thread Starter
 
Joined APC: Jan 2019
Posts: 17
Default

Originally Posted by PurpleToolBox View Post
I do think Amazon is going to increase the B2B shipping model. It will help offset their costs -- transporting higher yielding freight along side their low yielding parcels.



I think FedEx's IT department SUCKS! The website sucks. Tracking a package is still a difficult process. The app sucks too. It definitely isn't going to attract the millennial generation's or their kids attention.



I live in Memphis. Starting in the early morning I see two or three Amazon trucks in my neighborhood. And there are trucks delivering all day and into the night. *Rarely* do I see a FedEx truck. However, as Fred states, eCommerce is only 12% of our business. So home deliveries aren't a majority of the FedEx portfolio.



What do you reinvent FedEx into? You seem to believe that FedEx can't create a marketplace. I think FedEx can and must in order to survive Amazon's wrath. The incentive to go with FedEx's marketplace is that you keep your business data out of the prying eyes of Amazon. Amazon sees what you are selling and then undercuts you. You are damned if you do and damned if you don't. FedEx already has relationships with thousands of businesses which could prove useful in building the marketplace.


This FedEx bot IMO will be a huge fail. Perhaps it was a publicity stunt to keep the brand name in the news?



The problem with Amazon is that they're paying extremely low rates to transport those goods. They've already caused a couple of trucking companies to go out of business who signed onto their low paying contracts. This could be a benefit to UPS/FDX or what causes our yields to fall.
Great points and an awesome conversation on this topic!

I completely agree with you that Fedex's IT department is deplorable. That's a topic for another day! During INDOC they were introducing the system that is used to calculate the TOLD info using the Toughbook. I asked why we were not using third party applications through ACARS like other airlines. The answer was it was created internally and if we did use third party systems they and their team members would probably be out of jobs. Sounded like the way the government does business to me.

When it comes to IT solutions Amazon is incredible. Amazon Web Solutions (AWS) is an important part of their business. AWS is a growing and very profitable part of their business it's also one of their key strategies in developing their B2B partnerships. Fedex historically with a fledgeling IT department would have to reinvent itself in order to be a serious contender in the online space. It's hard enough for them to keep their network up so everyone can print their flight plans and paperwork imagine trying to keep up with an amazon type marketplace it's deliveries and everything it has going on now. Its possible but would require an overhaul on how it does business.

As mentioned they would then have to attract the masses and convince them that Fedex is more than just a shipping company it's now their marketplace. A lot of money and effort would have to be spent to rebrand Fedex or a new named company operating as a subsidiary to convince the millions of monthly paying prime members to jump ship.

"The problem with Amazon is that they're paying extremely low rates to transport those goods"

The low cost problem is one that is very interesting and worth noting. Do yourself a favor if you haven't yet, during busy periods of time hang out at the sort facility at MEM and watch as people are still hand scanning packages, throwing packages back on the conveyer belts as they fall off and start piling up as meager paid and apathetic workers try and keep the machine going. Packages are lost, misplaced and destroyed in the process it's a miracle it all comes together enough to keep the business going. Pay attention at how archaic some of these outstations and sort facilities are.

Amazon has invented some of the most technologically advanced sorting and logistic solutions. Their IT department was built around autonomous operational sorting efficiencies.They depend less on manpower and more on automation. They have the advantage of building every new facility and outstation using the latest technology while pilots at Fedex often struggle to print out their flight plans at times. What does this mean long term? As a result of their technology and efficiencies they have the ability to offer rock bottom prices long enough to choke out their competitors and still make a profit.

Everyone knows they have issues with treating employees well and part of that has to do with their cut throat cost savings. If they wanted to act like a low cost carrier in the logistics world to hurt their competitors they could.

They can also easily fix their problems of not competing with their partner businesses in the marketplace and provide more privacy along the way.

Last edited by heavycargo; 04-01-2019 at 01:57 AM.
heavycargo is offline  
Old 04-01-2019, 02:44 AM
  #16  
On Reserve
Thread Starter
 
Joined APC: Jan 2019
Posts: 17
Default

Let's put Amazon aside for a moment and talk about a major issue that is shadowing over Fedex that nobody is talking about but has investors spooked.

Investors have lost their trust in Fedex recently. The major investment in TNT at the moment is proving to be a huge misstep and liability. Fedex has historically failed to find traction in Europe. UPS continues to experience double digit profits in this sector.

"As investors digest yesterday’s results, there is concern among some analysts the company is not being fully transparent in communicating the status of the TNT integration."

(https://www.freightwaves.com/news/ai...s-around-fedex)

The company's leadership lacks the transparency and investors see right through it. Fred Smith and his inability to admit to the Amazon threat is inconsistent with Wall street's opinion. It's untruthful and certainly misleading investors.

UPS on the other hand has openly acknowledged the threat and is not afraid to talk about it and continues to benefit from it's transparency and efforts assuring their investors they have a plan.

Fedex continues to point to economic growth being the issue.

“The peak for global economic growth now appears to be behind us,” said Raj Subramaniam, who takes over Jan. 1 as head of FedEx Express, succeeding David L. Cunningham, who is retiring.

The sobering view of global economic activity may not be shared by FedEx’s two primary rivals, however. A DHL spokeswoman said today it hasn’t seen any material change in network-wide volumes from the early November period when its parent, Deutsche Post DHL, reported its third-quarter results. In October, UPS Chairman and CEO David Abney spoke bullishly about the international landscape when UPS posted its third quarter results. “UPS benefits from positive global economic conditions…and we are operating in a favorable growth environment,” Abney said on the analyst call at the time. A UPS spokesman said the company will not speak publicly about current conditions until it releases its fourth-quarter results early next year."

UPS's recent 4Q18 analysis concerning international efforts:
“Our International segment produced record results highlighted by double-digit profitability in Europe,” said Abney. “Our broad portfolio, diverse revenue base and flexible network help buffer the impacts of global economic softening. These strengths also position UPS to help customers navigate the current complexities of global trade.”

(UPS Achieves EPS Target on Strong Revenue Yields | UPS)
heavycargo is offline  
Old 04-01-2019, 03:10 AM
  #17  
Gets Weekends Off
 
Joined APC: Sep 2008
Position: B767
Posts: 1,901
Default

A couple of things...

I’m pretty sure FedEx actually makes a decent amount of money from selling APS licenses to other carriers. As a pilot, I really like the flexibility and instant calculations it performs. Relying upon ACARS for robust worldwide performance calculations probably isn’t the best idea. I even had occasional issues with ACARS based performance in the lower 48 at my previous airline.

I don’t know what is the deal with the IT for PFC, and I think we can all agree it is terrible and borderline unacceptable. But it also seems drastically different than what is used for FedEx customers. I don’t hear of daily IT outages for FDX operations at the consumer level.
wrxpilot is offline  
Old 04-01-2019, 03:55 AM
  #18  
Gets Weekends Off
 
appDude's Avatar
 
Joined APC: Sep 2010
Position: B777 Capt
Posts: 613
Default

And Amazon appears to have paid LG to put an Amazon button on hotel remotes in Japan. Scary.
Attached Images
File Type: jpg
LGHotelRemoteAmazon.jpg (52.3 KB, 402 views)
appDude is offline  
Old 04-01-2019, 04:50 AM
  #19  
Gets Weekends Off
 
Joined APC: Sep 2008
Position: B767
Posts: 1,901
Default

Originally Posted by wrxpilot View Post
A couple of things...

I’m pretty sure FedEx actually makes a decent amount of money from selling APS licenses to other carriers. As a pilot, I really like the flexibility and instant calculations it performs. Relying upon ACARS for robust worldwide performance calculations probably isn’t the best idea. I even had occasional issues with ACARS based performance in the lower 48 at my previous airline.

I don’t know what is the deal with the IT for PFC, and I think we can all agree it is terrible and borderline unacceptable. But it also seems drastically different than what is used for FedEx customers. I don’t hear of daily IT outages for FDX operations at the consumer level.
And now this morning, we see exactly why FedEx has APS instead of Aerodata for ACARS based performance:

https://www.usatoday.com/story/trave...ta/3329537002/
wrxpilot is offline  
Old 04-01-2019, 05:32 AM
  #20  
China Visa Applicant
 
Joined APC: Oct 2006
Position: Midfield downwind
Posts: 1,919
Default

Yet again, the same point - why do people perceive that a new competitor entering the market is somehow an automatic death knell for the other businesses?

Some of you folks act as if the only three outcomes are Amazon puts FedEx out of business, Amazon buys FedEx, or Amazon goes out of business.

Last edited by Hacker15e; 04-01-2019 at 05:44 AM.
Hacker15e is offline  

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are On
Pingbacks are On
Refbacks are On



Your Privacy Choices