That is the million dollar question, and one that we will only know many years after. Are Fedex hiccups a speed bump or a structural/business decision/fundamentals problem? Maybe over extended? Not saying this is the case, but what I am saying is the business environment is changing at a much more rapid pace than the past, and some companies fail to adapt quickly enough.

 

As of Sept. 30th, UPS was up a market-beating 23% year to date and the FDX is down 11%. UPS' dividend also yields over 3% compared to FedEx's less than 2%. Source: the google machine.

It’s obvious which company is adapting and which is behind. Although, it’s important to note that purple had over 50% of the market share in China while UPS less than 10%, so the tariffs are crushing purple. I have lots of friends at FDX and wish the company the best. But I would look very closely at purple given the turbulence. Does 76yr old Mr Smith have a succession plan in place? Lots of uncertainty.

 

FDX is going to be just fine...

 

Whistling past the graveyard

 

I’ll let you know when the check doesn’t clear.

 

I most definitely would not worry about the check clearing!! My only feedback/opinion is geared towards potential new hires. Not doom and gloom, but not shooting stars either. Whoever is at Fedex 1+ years will be just fine, no doubt. But to your point, according to a previous post, if true, Fedex had 50% market share, an American company in China, how long was that going to last?? From a very broad point of view, it seems Fred has put a lot of eggs in one very unstable basket. Maybe he is right, maybe he isn’t, but one thing is for certain, and this applies to all industries, 75+ year olds are not the revolutionaries/visionaries in the world, and maybe, just maybe his vision hasn’t adapted fast enough to this ever changing global commerce world. China is important (as a trade partner, as a society they are a bunch of intellectual property thieves), but placing many eggs in a market you have little control over....

 

So what employer are you at thats so stable and never has it’s hurdles? We just dumped our girlfriend (Amazon), which helped brown Immensely. We also are heavily vested in Asia and we also have the Brexit issue. So I bet when those small items get ironed out things will turn. This isn’t the first time purple had a hurdle and found a way to jump over it.

 

Small items??? 😳😳😳

 

Purple hitting a speedbump? No doubt. Insurmountable? Not at all. Lack of long term vision with Fred 75+? Maybe.

Again, Fedex is a global powerhouse brand, no doubt. But it seems they have been trying to get too “cute” lately, too forward looking which may or may not pan out. A mixture of NOW, medium term and some long term is probably more appropriate in this business landscape that changes every 5 minutes.

 

Of course... more doom and gloom... Can anyone who is a real poolie verify that they were told this? I know people that were hired last year around this time and they didn’t hear anything about a class date until Feb or so...