How overmanned are we? Good question. I don’t think the company has officially said. Along with any really helpful information. Pretty much every communication from them is vague to the limit.

Even if we don’t get a TA in 3 years (extremely unlikely IMO), there will still be early retirements, how many is anyone’s guess.

You are also assuming 0 new flying.

Just observations.

 

First, there have been numbers published. They said we were overmanned by 700 in the summer of '23. They said that the loss of USPS flying would add 500 to the overmanned situation. The union says we loose about 20 pilots a month due to retirement and resignation. That would put us somewhere around 800 overmanned according to the numbers published. According to the SAM, we are at least 500 overmanned. So the info is out there if you are willing to look at it.

Who said it will take 3 years from now to get a TA? What I said is that when a TA gets ratified, if there isn't an improvement for those who can retire, then they will probably stick around.

You seem to be leaning on the far side of the spectrum that we will have mass retirements, and increase in business over the next 3 years. I am just pointing out the other side of the spectrum. What happens will probably be in the middle. We will see. However, if you are junior, or living pay check to pay check, I would start planning for that rainy day just in case.

 

You’re right I just went back and looked in regard to the staffing. Probably just mentally tossed that info when I read it. The Sam is a much better method to determine staffing but also has its flaws as it does not include all flying accomplished each month.

Nobody says it will take 3 years to get a TA. I’m just saying if you look out 3 years you basically solve the manning issue more or less if flying remains the same with just mandatory retirements.

I’m fairly junior but not in the bottom 20 percent. Plenty in savings.

 

REDLINE IT NOW! It's terrible policy. They aren't gonna furlough and they never were. We are going to subsidize stock buybacks directly from our paychecks while they just wait for retirements to happen.

4a was intended as a "break glass in case of emergency" measure and they are using it as a management tool.

 

The company is quite clearly and disingenuously manipulating the SAM in an effort to get to 4a2c. Without 4a2c they wouldn't be incentivized to falsely drive the SAM (and with it our QOL) into the toilet. They have demonstrated that if they want to get to 4a2c they will manipulate their way there and we can grieve the methodology later after "taking the L".

Furlough will come anyway once we're in 4a2c if that's what they want to do. If it's not then they won't. 4a2c has little bearing on the issue, but it is driving a knife into trip and line QOL that will be very difficult to claw back.

 

It was Block 2 (Cutler), Block 4 (Comer) and Block 11 (Beckwith). Pretty pathetic!

 

Well, which is it, they aren't going to furlough or they might once they get to 4a2c?

What is driving a knife into QOL is picking up disputed pairings. We do it to ourselves.

 

LET THEM EAT CAKE!

“In Unity” indeed…

 

There are lines built with back end DH to MEM that arrive at midnight on Saturday night to DH back to the same place on SUN afternoon. This is operationally stupid but 4a is driving them to disappear every possible minute from the bidpacks. They are counting on people to use hotel in lieu to save themselves hassle. Anyone who does that is begging for every weekend layover to turn into a similar construction in the future. Guess what? Those aren't disputed pairings - they're in the lines.

You have missed the point entirely. The point is that the decision to furlough is not 4a2c driven. If they want to furlough they will and all 4a does is cause them to butcher everyone's QOL to do so. 4a doesn't protect anyone from furlough unless there's only an EXTREMELY marginal case to furlough. If the case to furlough is extremely marginal then they're unlikely to do so anyway.

In the meantime, 4a incentivizes the company to destroy EVERYONE's QOL and W2 just to keep their furlough options open.

 

Pathetic and not shocking.