For the newhires experiencing your first peak.

Trips tend to be like a roach motel, don't pick one up thinking you'll be able to modify your schedule easily.
R day drops - if they happen at all, timing will likely be a day prior. EG-during the 0700-0900 sick call lottery the day prior to your reserve show

I'd expect at least one Ops Emergency, maybe 2.

Potential for SUB due to limited aircraft ability much higher, so try and figure out your options now.


Things that I think will be better. If you're lucky enough to have trips, same footprint trades will be approved for the first time ever (if you win the time stamp lottery)

If you're a domestic hub turner, CRS will have to effectively pay you Draft to modify your layover city. (Peak 2014 people bid their home cities only to show up in Memphis and have their trip revised to operate elsewhere. Rather than doing that this year, CRS has been cancelling the trip and assigning a SUB trip)

On cold days in Memphis, expect long, long delays as our support folks decide whether to come to work when the weather sucks. (Unfortunately the same is especially true of our deice trucks)

Good luck, keep your sense of humor, and wear a Christmas tie.

Personally, I tend to think that if the companies going to create a whole slew of additional Airport Stby's (some of which will go unfilled) it's Christmas tie season

 

I wonder if this might be a different sort of peak, in some seat positions. In my position, we appear to be grossly overstaffed. No AVA even the days around Thanksgiving, with winter weather coming. Maybe we'll be scrambling to get trips and be allowed to drop in December, if they don't feel a need for AVA. Nah...

 

I thought we were already supposed to be approaching peak???

Massive amounts of new hires + folks picking up Open Time for straight time pay = NO $OUP FOR YOU!!!!

I may eat my words in December, but until then and AVA becomes available.... what does Bob Newhart say?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WFaOULOMoEc

 

You forgot the "wet leasing during Peak claus" in our contract that has now turned into almost a year round policy!

 

Yes, I meant to include wet leasing into my formula. Very true!!!

Golly, gee.... I'm glad were getting one day's pay for months and months of lost trips from wet leasing. PFFFFT.

 

FWIW...when the VP of flight ops and head of training visited the FDA about 8 months ago, then both expressed an interest in increasing the manning. Their words was the ability for pilots to adjust schedules was a huge quality of life issue. I'm sure the tradeoffs between full time benefits verses premium pay, draft, and missed trips due to lack of pilots is also a driving factor.

They have options on how they staff the airline, and ramifications are real. A lean, low staffing model means more DFT and VOL, but slower upgrades. It means more security in a downturn as BLGs tend to be higher and can drop without forcing excess bids or reduced guarantees. It also means dropping trips and R days is tougher. It also increases pilots leverage during self help.


In my time here--we've done lean manning. Creates overtime opportunities, minimizes shock during downtowns. At the same time, watching management guys bringing uniforms to work in 2006 might be part of the reason they scaled up the hiring after the contract was ratified....right in time for the retirement age change, the worst economy since the Great Depression, and the 4a2b that followed...

A fatter manning model means more upgrades, but less overtime options. It means less open time to adjust your schedule, but getting rid of trips is easier, especially with the new "proffering" option available. It also raises the risk during downturns of reduced BLGs and excess bids. Don't fly extra during negotiations? Management doesn't care--they already have the airline "fully staffed". Its always a trade off to them with control verses expense.

Now we are surging again. I suspect some of the overmanning on some left seats (MD11 Capts doing RFO, etc) is due to the 31 Dec retirement of 100+ folks. Next spring may see the manning rebound to more historic levels.

You can make a case for either, but the point is that's Management's job. Nothing in our contract says you should expect to be a 757 in x years, or you can count on XX hours of draft or vacation buyback in a given year. For years at FedEx you simply knew there was more flying or money if you wanted it. Around 2009--that quit cold. To me, the lesson is build a budget on a BLG life and pad it with a cushion. Anything extra is gravy, and you can roll that into fun money, additional savings, or whatever you want. Budget that house, car, or tuition on making 100 hours a month, however, and odds are at some point you are going to be stressed. It also means if you want that money, sometimes you better take that upgrade or make hay when the sun shines...even our "recession resistant" job can be very cyclic.

 

"Keep your second officer wife, and your first officer house."

 

Wait! What? I was supposed to be given a wife as a second officer? I feel like I have been cheated 😱

 

Sage advice here new hires. Pay attention.

 

Sage advice times two.