As a freshman in college majoring in avation, I am wondering where everybody thinks the market will be in 6 years? I know this is all just speculation but I have been reading stuff on the VLJ market and wonder if you guys think that will take off, and will major airlines recover?

 

The industry is beyond dynamic. There is absolutely no way to predict where it will be. Six years ago I would have been a captain at a regional by now and applying at Majors with 3000 total.

The VLJ market won't take off any more than any other segment of bizjets. They're pricey, have limited capability compared to larger jets, and the market won't be driven by regulation, it will be run by insurance which will make it difficult for many people now flying light twins to obtain. (note,this is my speculation)

 

As someone who loves to make predictions, I still can't make a prediction on the entire industry in 6 years.

I will however chime in on the VLJ's. I think they will be popular in 6 years. I think there is an incredible market for VLJ's, and I think you will see large numbers of them flying in 6 years. I believe Eclipse has gotten over 2200 orders for their VLJ, and the A-700 is selling much faster than Adam aircraft predicted. There was an interesting thread about VLJ's in the corporate forum that I would suggest reading. Just search VLJ and I think it was called Article of VLJ's.

 

Well, I cant ask for much more than that. I just want to be a pilot more than anything. I just wanted to know what other aviation sutdents/pilots thought.

 

I agree for the most part, however the economic viability of those things is a little fuzzy due to labor costs...any FBO operator at a small field knows he can find a dozen CFIs willing to fly a ME turbine aircraft for essentially nothing...this perception may have caused the VLJ visionaries to under-estimate their actual labor costs. Insurance is going to end up requiring 2 pilots, one of whom has significant turbojet experience...2000+ microjets will dry up that talent pool real quick-like.

The good news is that if the air-taxis take off, they will create pilot jobs, and create a high-demand at the regional FO level. I could see regionals having to pay signing bonuses to attract new-hires...why sit reserve at a sh*tty regional for peanuts in some east coast toilet when you can get glass turbojet time at the home patch?

Air-taxis should attract some folks who would have driven otherwise, and even if they steal significant airline pax, well then you have 2 pilots flying 1-4 pax around instead of flying 30-90 pax...big net gain in pilot jobs.

As for owner-operators, they will have a rigorous transition program culminating in an IOE phase with a baby-sitter...and for many of those owners I suspect the IOE will last forever...more pilot jobs!

Time will tell.

 

With Eclipse and other rapidly moving towards certification some of the best information on the industry as whole can be found at http://www.very-light-jet.com

Pictures, articles and up to date press releases.

 

how's uiuc aviation? I have thought of going to school there, is there a big load of work?

 

3,000 hours flight time (excluding helicopter, simulator and flight engineer time)
1,000 hours as Pilot-in-Command (PIC)
1,000 hours multi-engine
500 hours turbo-jet PIC
Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Airline Transport Pilot (ATP) Certification
Current FAA First Class Medical Certificate
Federal Communication Commission (FCC) Radio License
Valid passport with the ability to travel in and out of the U.S.
Valid U.S. driver’s license
Must pass a ten (10) year background check and pre-employment drug test

Those are some serious requirements for a VLJ, specifically the Eclipse 500
I may be wrong but isnt this around 1000 hrs more then it takes to be a CRJ-700 Captain?

Oh well...maybe it is the greatest thing since peanut butter and jelly (in the same jar) only time will tell

 

While I agree that the VLJ's will have a more or less positive impact on pilot hiring, I disagree with this statement:

"Air-taxis should attract some folks who would have driven otherwise, and even if they steal significant airline pax, well then you have 2 pilots flying 1-4 pax around instead of flying 30-90 pax...big net gain in pilot jobs."

The economics of 2 pilots flying 1-4 passengers dont lead me to the conclusion that the "huddled masses" will be seen on VLJ's. A lot of the "regional" operators have had a hard time making any money with 2 pilots flying 55 people around. That's *part* of the reason why we have the "race to the bottom" for pilot wages.

In my opinion, the VLJ's will cater to a more exclusive crowd and will steal customers from the first class cabins of the main line airlines and corporate charter operators.

 

The largest future air-taxi operators have stated that they are targeting folks who would have driven 2-4 hours, and that they are not targeting airline passengers. They may actually be targeting first classers, but the VLJ's are going to be so small that they will not provide a very good first-class ambiance. For the same price a first class passenger would prefer a private jet, but it would have to be a REAL jet, with a cabin you can stand up in and galley service. The utilitarian little missiles will likley appeal to business travels who just need to get there fast.



I too have suspicions about the economics.