Floodgates are open, with all legacies hiring pretty close to full speed ahead and WN joining the mix, I doubt this stops any time soon, other than for brief 3 month pauses here and there. MAX 7/10 certification seems to be on the horizon and will merely add fuel to the fire. It's not the post-COVID madness, but I could see us averaging 30 per month for 18 more months if not longer.

Thats my guess as well pending international events and their possible effects on our industry.

I heard from a friend in the dept that we are having roughly a 30% failure or voluntary withdrawal from upgrade

Yikes. Any reason why?

Checks out.... Ontop of some REALLY **** poor failure rates for new hires as well.

Not sure what is going on, but one of the reasons we have all of the issues with sim availability and the need to stop classes is because people simply need more sims than the footprint and it eats away any available times and pushes people back. god forbid a sim is down for mx, then it is a complete mess.

What is the new hire failure rate? I'm in the pool.

I think the new hire failure rate is quite low. The training dept is mostly excellent. Don't think this place is a washout style training dept. The vast majority of instructors are excellent and want you to succeed. Study, prepare and you will be fine.

As for upgrades, they recently changed the upgrade training and made it a bit more difficult. On top of that people don't know what to expect since the program is new. (No good gauge out there yet?)

When I went thru upgrade it was very much an educational syllabus and not a hard, testing, washout style training program. I learned and enjoyed it. But I never felt like it was designed to wash me out. The new one might be a little different.

Just bc somone has 1000 hrs of 121 time doesn't mean they are ready for an upgrade.

the last class had 4 that never showed for class. One of them got hired elsewhere apparently and the others withdrew before it started. Add to that 1 or 2 failures and there you have it.

100% correct. Although I’m sure there are a few that would make great captains, the vast majority would not. 1000 hours is usually about the equivalent of getting your toe wet.