I totally understand not wanting to wait, but unless Spirit orders a bunch of new planes, we have way more potential.

Spirit is getting fairly close to running out their order book

I have a friend at NK that is 1.6 in and his still on rsv. Dunno about the growth and senioirty movement whatsoever.

Growth is now crazy at Spirit. Hiring 64 a month until at least next summer. Also upgrading 32 a month. New order will be announced soon. I’ll have over 300 below me at Spirit by the time frontier finally calls for a class date.

There’s a small class of ~4 starting Monday. I believe it’s primarily a Purdue thing similar to the last small class.

My suspicion is that they’re trying to feel out the new training footprint before they crank up classes again. There’s going to be more CBTs and self-study prior to ground school, which will eventually only be about a week long versus the three. The new sim should also be in place now. This shift could even allow the two classes a month like they talked about earlier this year.

I’m still optimistic we’ll see the 30-40 new hires a month sometime this Fall. The contract efficiencies, the need for more pilots in the summer, and historical trends may be what drove the training freeze, but more people are needed. This summer has been rough on crew availability and we’re still seeing the reserves get used very heavily. What happens if people start retiring after the ALPA payouts? Maybe that’s a stretch... and wishful thinking. New planes are still arriving and hiring must increase.

It’s unfortunate that HR and the CPO went so hard at recruiting, only to have their choices sit and rot in a pool. That’s awful foresight and communication at the Palace, which led to the company missing out on some really good folks. As many have said, most of these qualified guys/gals have other options and they will have moved on.

For my seniority’s sake hopefully this thing gets rolling again in Oct or Nov. The company says December, but they’ve completely misjudged and falsely advertised the growth, hiring and training all year long.

I think all major HRs could do with a course in demographics and a look at what is in the que. Hiring standards, at least in terms of quantity and quality of experience in new hires is destined to GO DOWN in coming years. There just aren’t enough people in the pipeline with that many hours, and the others can only get about 6-7 hundred hours a year of meaningful time. That’s why you are already seeing the true bottom feeders (rhymes with fatlas) trying to stuff anyone who can qualify for an ATP into the right seat of a 747.

Granted, with better pay than $40k a year you can be more selective, but seriously, Southern is taking people with only 500 TSIC as FOs on 777s At $80 k a year. Management better be ready to take good people while they can still get them. Increasing first year pay to where it isn’t a cut for the least well paid regional Ca is long overdue as well.

My 2 cents worth anyway.

Do you think it will get to a point some will hire 1500 hours directly in with no 121, 135, or mil? We did that in the 1950s and 1960s. Admittedly they set sideways for a few years.

We already do that with Purdue grads

That’s what Atlas is doing now. With older 747s. While I’m not rated in the 747 I’d be willing to bet that it is a significantly more challenging aircraft to fly than a modern Airbus. And I’ll grant you, they are mostly doing that because they want cheap butts in the seat, but it’s also a reflection of the fact that the barrel is getting down there. The bottom feeders are already scraping the bottom. Atlas wouldn’t be doing that if they could get more experienced people for $40k to start. Frontier is offering new FOs $58 an hour with a 75 hour guarantee. That’s what - maybe $60 k? And the Atlas FOs will be making $100 an hour after their first year vs $108 an hour at Frontier.

So the idea that anyone is going to keep people swimming in a pool for any length of time - at least if the applicants actually have a decent experience level - without somebody poaching from that pool is looking increasingly suspect.

Airline HR departments may have a real culture change coming their way. I hope it doesn’t catch them by surprise.

I think the fact that we have a contract is proof that they already figured that out

In the words of BTO, B-B-B Baby, you ain’t seen nothing yet.

:rolleyes: