Ukraine conflict
03-08-2023, 07:16 PM
#361
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Apr 2011
Posts: 1,599
The revelations: German public broadcasters ARD and SWR and newspaper Die Zeit on Tuesday evening published reports citing unnamed officials claiming Western intelligence services have traced the attacks to a “Pro-Ukrainian group.” The New York Times had similar revelations.
Those are mainstream grinders. If ultimately determined planted or baseless, best case they’ll get labeled nitwits shortly before posting an excuse filled correction. Wherever the story goes from here, it’ll get attention.
Those are mainstream grinders. If ultimately determined planted or baseless, best case they’ll get labeled nitwits shortly before posting an excuse filled correction. Wherever the story goes from here, it’ll get attention.
03-08-2023, 09:25 PM
#362
Prime Minister/Moderator
Joined APC: Jan 2006
Position: Engines Turn Or People Swim
Posts: 39,550
The revelations: German public broadcasters ARD and SWR and newspaper Die Zeit on Tuesday evening published reports citing unnamed officials claiming Western intelligence services have traced the attacks to a “Pro-Ukrainian group.” The New York Times had similar revelations.
Those are mainstream grinders. If ultimately determined planted or baseless, best case they’ll get labeled nitwits shortly before posting an excuse filled correction. Wherever the story goes from here, it’ll get attention.
Those are mainstream grinders. If ultimately determined planted or baseless, best case they’ll get labeled nitwits shortly before posting an excuse filled correction. Wherever the story goes from here, it’ll get attention.
More likely SVR DBA a "Pro Urkrainian Group".
UR government could not possibly be that stoopid... no need whatsoever to do that while the pipelines are idled (they could always do it later if they start using the pipes again).
Possible I suppose that some non-government UR group might do something like this but why not just attack RU property instead? Sink a RU tanker somewhere.
03-08-2023, 09:32 PM
#363
Perennial Reserve
Joined APC: Jan 2018
Posts: 11,717
03-09-2023, 05:48 AM
#364
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Apr 2011
Posts: 1,599
Tim McVeigh & Terry Nichols bombed a federal building complex in 1995 with improvised payload stacked in a Ryder rental truck. Destroyed 650M in property and killed 168 within a 15-block radius. It's very possible.
03-09-2023, 07:17 AM
#365
Prime Minister/Moderator
Joined APC: Jan 2006
Position: Engines Turn Or People Swim
Posts: 39,550
The issue isn't what's possible, look at 9/11.
The issue is who has motive, what are the benefits, and what are the risks.
The risk and downside for UR or anyone sympathetic to UR are rather large. Basically pizz off a key ally and lose a lot of direct material support, and alienate your sympathisers and supporters world-wide. To do what? Shut down a pipeline that wasn't pumping anything anyway? Even if I felt compelled to prevent RU from getting that gas revenue I would at least wait until (if) they restarted the pipeline. It's not going anywhere, you can blow it up at any time.
Also confident that Zelenskyy could not possibly be that dense, so it would have been behind his back.
RU on the other hand has nothing to lose, and would gain if UR got blamed for a false-flag. It's a bit heavy-handed and half-baked, but that hasn't stopped RU yet
I would also not rule out that the SVR paid some UR nationals to do it, just to add a veneer of authenticity.
The issue is who has motive, what are the benefits, and what are the risks.
The risk and downside for UR or anyone sympathetic to UR are rather large. Basically pizz off a key ally and lose a lot of direct material support, and alienate your sympathisers and supporters world-wide. To do what? Shut down a pipeline that wasn't pumping anything anyway? Even if I felt compelled to prevent RU from getting that gas revenue I would at least wait until (if) they restarted the pipeline. It's not going anywhere, you can blow it up at any time.
Also confident that Zelenskyy could not possibly be that dense, so it would have been behind his back.
RU on the other hand has nothing to lose, and would gain if UR got blamed for a false-flag. It's a bit heavy-handed and half-baked, but that hasn't stopped RU yet
I would also not rule out that the SVR paid some UR nationals to do it, just to add a veneer of authenticity.
03-09-2023, 07:37 AM
#366
Perennial Reserve
Joined APC: Jan 2018
Posts: 11,717
I meant going after the tanker, not taking out the pipeline. A pipeline is a long static target unprotected and less mobile even than an oil tanker. Given a decent ROV and a ton or two of ANFO I can see it being taken out. Even a near miss would likely crush it given the incompressibility of water. A tanker is a little harder to cozy up to with a sailboat, even for a suicide attack. Most sailboats can only do about eight knots, and that only in a favorable wind direction. A tanker more like 12. But, yeah, nothing is impossible.
03-09-2023, 01:07 PM
#367
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Apr 2011
Posts: 1,599
I meant going after the tanker, not taking out the pipeline. A pipeline is a long static target unprotected and less mobile even than an oil tanker. Given a decent ROV and a ton or two of ANFO I can see it being taken out. Even a near miss would likely crush it given the incompressibility of water. A tanker is a little harder to cozy up to with a sailboat, even for a suicide attack. Most sailboats can only do about eight knots, and that only in a favorable wind direction. A tanker more like 12. But, yeah, nothing is impossible.
03-09-2023, 01:34 PM
#368
Prime Minister/Moderator
Joined APC: Jan 2006
Position: Engines Turn Or People Swim
Posts: 39,550
I meant going after the tanker, not taking out the pipeline. A pipeline is a long static target unprotected and less mobile even than an oil tanker. Given a decent ROV and a ton or two of ANFO I can see it being taken out. Even a near miss would likely crush it given the incompressibility of water. A tanker is a little harder to cozy up to with a sailboat, even for a suicide attack. Most sailboats can only do about eight knots, and that only in a favorable wind direction. A tanker more like 12. But, yeah, nothing is impossible.
The way you attack a ship with troops (ie frogmen) is to mine it while it's at anchor. If you want to get at it while underway, you ether have to board and seize it, or just do it the old fashioned way... torpedoes, naval guns, missiles, or air-dropped bombs.
03-09-2023, 02:15 PM
#369
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Joined APC: Jan 2018
Posts: 11,717
ANFO isn't really suitable for most underwater work... especially tactical operations. It doesn't like water, it's bulky and it needs a booster explosive. Great for truck bombs though.
The way you attack a ship with troops (ie frogmen) is to mine it while it's at anchor. If you want to get at it while underway, you ether have to board and seize it, or just do it the old fashioned way... torpedoes, naval guns, missiles, or air-dropped bombs.
The way you attack a ship with troops (ie frogmen) is to mine it while it's at anchor. If you want to get at it while underway, you ether have to board and seize it, or just do it the old fashioned way... torpedoes, naval guns, missiles, or air-dropped bombs.
filler
03-10-2023, 05:16 AM
#370
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Joined APC: Jan 2018
Posts: 11,717
What we're covering
- Russia launched 95 missiles over the past day in one of its biggest aerial assaults, Ukraine's military said Friday. About 34 were intercepted, but Kyiv said it does not have the capability to counter the six Kinzhal ballistic missiles used by Moscow.
- Nearly half a million people are without power in Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city, following the latest barrage of strikes, according to the regional governor.
- Russia has been capturing some of the US and NATO-provided weapons left on the battlefield in Ukraine and sending them to Iran, where the US believes Tehran will try to reverse-engineer the systems, sources tell CNN
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