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Old 10-05-2025 | 08:15 PM
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Originally Posted by Excargodog
And as nuclear proliferation continues (the A-bomb is 80 year old technology after all) the likelihood of catastrophic misjudgment only gets more likely.
What other realistic conclusion can be drawn? 80 years in, still not a bad run all things considered.
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Old 10-05-2025 | 09:06 PM
  #22  
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Originally Posted by METO Guido
What other realistic conclusion can be drawn? 80 years in, still not a bad run all things considered.
Except it was used in war - twice - rhe first time only three weeks after it was first tested at Trinity Site, the second only three days later. I’m not complaining. Estimated US casualties if we had to assault the Japanese home islands were a minimum of 250,000 to a maximum of 4 million. That’s from a 1945 US population of only 140 million. All in all, it probably even saved Japanese lives although that was little consolation for the hundreds of thousands of Japanese that did die.
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Old 10-15-2025 | 06:02 AM
  #23  
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German conscription plan stalls after defense minister’s objections

Defense Minister Boris Pistorius intervened to halt a coalition deal that would have reintroduced limited military service by lottery.

https://www.politico.eu/article/germ...on-by-lottery/

OCTOBER 15, 2025 1:21 PM CET
BY CHRIS LUNDAY, RIXA FÜRSEN AND JASPER BENNINKBERLIN — Germany’s plan to bring back a form of conscription was derailed late Tuesday after last-minute objections from Defense Minister Boris Pistorius upended an agreement among the country’s governing parties, multiple people familiar with the matter told POLITICO.

Lawmakers from the Christian Democrats and the Social Democrats had spent the past week finalizing a compromise to revive military service under the Defense Service Modernization Act — a flagship project of Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s government to rebuild the Bundeswehr’s depleted ranks.

But several parliamentary officials said the deal was halted after Pistorius expressed concerns over key aspects of the draft during a meeting of the parliamentary group of the Social Democrats on Tuesday evening.
The plan had already faced resistance in parliament. Niklas Wagener, defense spokesperson for the opposition Greens, called it “a half-baked compromise” that blurred the line between voluntarism and obligation.

“The government can’t decide whether it wants voluntary service or duty,” he told POLITICO, adding that the lottery “amounts to bringing back conscription through the back door.”

For now, the bill is in limbo. Coalition aides said talks will likely continue, but no timeline has been set.

The defense ministry had aimed to start implementation by January, adding roughly 5,000 troops a year to reach a long-term goal of 260,000 personnel by 2030.
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Old 10-15-2025 | 11:32 AM
  #24  
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Slovak PM vows to derail key EU summit

Populist leader Robert Fico said he intends to challenge a draft joint statement from the European Council and push for measures on energy prices and carmaking.

https://www.politico.eu/article/slov...key-eu-summit/


OCTOBER 15, 2025 8:22 PM CET
BY GABRIEL GAVINBRUSSELS — Slovakia will oppose efforts to bolster support for Ukraine and slash the flow of funds filling Russia’s war chest, the country’s leader declared Wednesday.

In a statement posted online, Prime Minister Robert Fico said he spoke to European Council President António Costa ahead of an EU leaders’ meeting in Brussels on Oct. 23, threatening to withhold support for a joint statement under development by diplomats.

“I expressed my astonishment that once again, Ukraine is being treated as the top priority topic,” Fico said, insisting that the bloc needs to put economic competitiveness further up the agenda and pledging to submit alternative language.

Conclusions issued on behalf of the Council have to be supported by all 27 member countries to be adopted formally. However, opposition from Hungary in recent years has seen joint statements issued on behalf of the remaining 26, with Slovakia typically taking part.

“I am not interested in dealing with new sanctions packages against Russia until I see, in the conclusions of the [European Council] summit, political instructions for the European Commission on how to address the crisis in the automotive industry and the high energy prices that are making the European economy completely uncompetitive,” Fico insisted.

“The Slovak government will submit substantially more concrete proposals than those currently included in the draft conclusions,” he claimed.

A draft of the conclusions, negotiated by envoys in advance of the talks and obtained by POLITICO earlier this week, reaffirms support for Ukraine in the face of Russia’s full-scale invasion. It “underlines the critical need to ensure that Ukraine remains resilient and has the budgetary and military means to continue to exercise its inherent right of self-defense and counter Russia’s aggression.”

However, the document also focuses heavily on economic competitiveness and — if agreed — would commit capitals to a major program of slashing red tape to ease the burden of regulation on business.

“The European Council calls on the Commission to swiftly bring forward further ambitious simplification packages among others on automotive, military mobility, digital, environment, and food safety,” it reads.

Slovakia has consistently opposed tightening of EU sanctions on Russia as part of efforts to force Moscow to the negotiating table. The country has also used what was intended as a temporary exemption to deepen its dependence on Russian energy.

According to two diplomats, granted anonymity to speak to POLITICO, Slovakia has continued to apply its veto to the EU’s latest package of Russia sanctions — the 19th to be developed since the start of the full-scale war — despite other countries getting close to an agreement following a meeting of ambassadors on Wednesday.
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Old 10-23-2025 | 07:28 PM
  #25  
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https://www.politico.eu/article/ukra...ance-brussels/

OCTOBER 24, 2025 2:31 AM CET
BY GREGORIO SORGI, CAMILLE GIJS, JACOPO BARIGAZZI AND HANNE COKELAEREBRUSSELS ― The European Union’s €140 billion loan for Ukraine remains in doubt ― and looks set to be for at least another two months ― after the prime minister of Belgium dug his heels in over using confiscated Russian assets to pay for it.

Belgium ― one of the EU’s founding six members and renowned for its love of the art of the classic European compromise ― succeeded in massively watering down language published at a summit in Brussels. The result does little besides postponing the decision over whether to go ahead with the plan until the next time leaders meet. And it renews concerns over the bloc's commitment to Ukraine.

The prime minister in question, Bart De Wever, is a right-wing Flemish nationalist who is under pressure over the plan at home because he says the operation carries huge financial and legal risks for Belgium, where most of the Russian assets are kept. EU chiefs say they understand his concerns ― but they couldn’t find a way to reassure him.

"It’s a bit sour for me that we are finger-pointed, now, as the unwilling country,” De Wever told reporters. He described the idea of Belgian taxpayers ending up on the hook as "completely insane."

Donald Trump's ambiguous attitude to how to deal with Moscow's invasion of Ukraine, despite this week sanctioning Russia’s two biggest oil companies, has put the onus on Europe to bolster its support. While Europe's governments and the European Central Bank long considered using Russian assets to arm and rebuild Ukraine unthinkable over fears it would break international law, it emerged as a real prospect in the past few months as the war has dragged on.

The EU on Thursday was hoping to give the European Commission a firm mandate to make a legal proposal outlining the loan as early as next week. De Wever ensured that didn't happen.

'Sufficiently balanced'

A full day of frantic negotiations saw talks break up without agreement at one point ― only for leaders to return later in the evening after their advisers worked on compromise language. De Wever allowed the final summit statement to say that he wouldn’t stand in the way of the Commission further exploring the assets confiscation idea. That was hardly the stuff Kyiv dreamed of.

It is “a sufficiently balanced text to allow interpretations that respond to all needs and sensibilities so everyone will then give a certain interpretation that's good for themselves,” said an EU diplomat briefed on the discussions, who spoke on condition of anonymity because the talks were in private.

Few were able to conceal the fact that the outcome raises renewed questions about the EU’s fragile support for Ukraine with the conflict nearing its four-year anniversary.

The assets plan "hasn’t been buried," French President Emmanuel Macron told reporters. "We were able to discuss technical details.” No other funding options were on the table for Ukraine aid, he said. ECB President Christine Lagarde told leaders that the risks associated to the loan are "manageable."

With Belgium signaling that it felt uncomfortable with the plan, national and EU diplomats spent many days in the run-up to the summit trying to find legal language to reassure De Wever and still give the Commission the instructions it would need to plow ahead with the idea.

But while those previous drafts of the joint statement, even as late as the morning of the summit, explicitly called on officials to put forward a legal proposal ― effectively a signal that the plan was likely to become a reality ― the wording leaders ended up with merely "invites the Commission to present, as soon as possible, options for financial support," and punts the issue to the next summit. That's scheduled for December, but officials didn't rule out an earlier meeting.

'Negotiating for weeks'

The stakes seemed too high for De Wever given that the bulk of Russia’s immobilized assets in Europe are held by the financial firm Euroclear, which is registered in Belgium, the diplomats said.

He repeatedly told his counterparts that the operation carried huge financial and legal risks for Belgium, they said.

A clue to De Wever's stubbornness is that he is embroiled in inconclusive talks to agree on a budget to bring Belgium's finances back in balance.

De Wever rejected an 11th-hour compromise that would have envisaged stronger language in favor of the loan, according to four EU officials.


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Old 10-23-2025 | 07:29 PM
  #26  
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https://www.politico.eu/article/ukra...ance-brussels/

OCTOBER 24, 2025 2:31 AM CET
BY GREGORIO SORGI, CAMILLE GIJS, JACOPO BARIGAZZI AND HANNE COKELAEREBRUSSELS ― The European Union’s €140 billion loan for Ukraine remains in doubt ― and looks set to be for at least another two months ― after the prime minister of Belgium dug his heels in over using confiscated Russian assets to pay for it.

Belgium ― one of the EU’s founding six members and renowned for its love of the art of the classic European compromise ― succeeded in massively watering down language published at a summit in Brussels. The result does little besides postponing the decision over whether to go ahead with the plan until the next time leaders meet. And it renews concerns over the bloc's commitment to Ukraine.

The prime minister in question, Bart De Wever, is a right-wing Flemish nationalist who is under pressure over the plan at home because he says the operation carries huge financial and legal risks for Belgium, where most of the Russian assets are kept. EU chiefs say they understand his concerns ― but they couldn’t find a way to reassure him.

"It’s a bit sour for me that we are finger-pointed, now, as the unwilling country,” De Wever told reporters. He described the idea of Belgian taxpayers ending up on the hook as "completely insane."

Donald Trump's ambiguous attitude to how to deal with Moscow's invasion of Ukraine, despite this week sanctioning Russia’s two biggest oil companies, has put the onus on Europe to bolster its support. While Europe's governments and the European Central Bank long considered using Russian assets to arm and rebuild Ukraine unthinkable over fears it would break international law, it emerged as a real prospect in the past few months as the war has dragged on.

The EU on Thursday was hoping to give the European Commission a firm mandate to make a legal proposal outlining the loan as early as next week. De Wever ensured that didn't happen.

'Sufficiently balanced'

A full day of frantic negotiations saw talks break up without agreement at one point ― only for leaders to return later in the evening after their advisers worked on compromise language. De Wever allowed the final summit statement to say that he wouldn’t stand in the way of the Commission further exploring the assets confiscation idea. That was hardly the stuff Kyiv dreamed of.

It is “a sufficiently balanced text to allow interpretations that respond to all needs and sensibilities so everyone will then give a certain interpretation that's good for themselves,” said an EU diplomat briefed on the discussions, who spoke on condition of anonymity because the talks were in private.

Few were able to conceal the fact that the outcome raises renewed questions about the EU’s fragile support for Ukraine with the conflict nearing its four-year anniversary.

The assets plan "hasn’t been buried," French President Emmanuel Macron told reporters. "We were able to discuss technical details.” No other funding options were on the table for Ukraine aid, he said. ECB President Christine Lagarde told leaders that the risks associated to the loan are "manageable."

With Belgium signaling that it felt uncomfortable with the plan, national and EU diplomats spent many days in the run-up to the summit trying to find legal language to reassure De Wever and still give the Commission the instructions it would need to plow ahead with the idea.

But while those previous drafts of the joint statement, even as late as the morning of the summit, explicitly called on officials to put forward a legal proposal ― effectively a signal that the plan was likely to become a reality ― the wording leaders ended up with merely "invites the Commission to present, as soon as possible, options for financial support," and punts the issue to the next summit. That's scheduled for December, but officials didn't rule out an earlier meeting.

'Negotiating for weeks'

The stakes seemed too high for De Wever given that the bulk of Russia’s immobilized assets in Europe are held by the financial firm Euroclear, which is registered in Belgium, the diplomats said.

He repeatedly told his counterparts that the operation carried huge financial and legal risks for Belgium, they said.

A clue to De Wever's stubbornness is that he is embroiled in inconclusive talks to agree on a budget to bring Belgium's finances back in balance.

De Wever rejected an 11th-hour compromise that would have envisaged stronger language in favor of the loan, according to four EU officials.

“We agreed on the what, now we have to work on the how,” Commission President Ursula von der Leyen told reporters.

Faced with the Commission's reassurances that the financial operation carried little risk, Belgian diplomats replied in internal EU meetings that a plane had little chance of crashing — but if that happens, tens of people still lose their lives, according to two diplomats with knowledge of the talks.

Complexities

During the past weeks, Belgian officials have repeatedly called on the Commission to paper over the most sensitive aspects of the loan together bilaterally — and were left incensed when EU officials refused to do so.

“My feeling is that the friends from the Commission underrated the complexities of this very sophisticated financial construction," said one of the EU diplomats. "This underrating is the reason why Belgium is worried.”

The EU's late-night compromise allows everyone to save face ― and leaves De Wever with the power to veto any future actions if they don't meet his red lines.

If “Russia can actually claim the money for whatever reason … the cash needs to be there immediately," De Wever said, adding "trust in the entire financial system of Europe" would be at stake.

"Who’s going to give that guarantee. I asked my colleagues, 'Is it you? Is it the member states?' ... This question was not answered with a tsunami of enthusiasm around the table," the Belgian leader said.

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Old 10-24-2025 | 09:21 AM
  #27  
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https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-u...ladimir-putin/

EU ‘not ready’ to raid Russian assets for Ukraine loan, Belgian commissioner says

Hadja Lahbib defends Prime Minister Bart De Wever’s blockade of a disputed plan to help Kyiv fight Vladimir Putin.


OCTOBER 24, 2025 4:24 PM CET
BY TIM ROSSThe EU is “not ready” to take the unprecedented step of raiding €140 billion of frozen Russian assets to send a massive loan to Ukraine, Belgium’s European commissioner said Friday.

Speaking to POLITICO, Hadja Lahbib, a former Belgian foreign minister, warned that a lot of work is still needed to ensure the legal risks are minimized and shared fairly between Belgium, the other 26 EU countries and even the G7 before the plan can move forward.

She suggested other EU countries where assets are held are not doing enough to release funds to Ukraine, pointing out that Belgium — which holds most of the funds in the financial depository Euroclear — had already contributed interest accrued to help Kyiv’s war effort against Russia.
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Old 10-28-2025 | 08:39 PM
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Steep influx of new Ukrainian refugees triggers backlash in Berlin and Warsaw

Politicians in Berlin fear that the sharp increase in Ukrainian men coming to Germany could reduce support for military aid to Kyiv.

https://www.politico.eu/article/stee...warsaw-poland/

OCTOBER 29, 2025 4:00 AM CET
BY NETTE NÖSTLINGER, JAMIE DETTMER AND JAN CIENSKIBERLIN — Politicians in Germany and Poland — home to the biggest Ukrainian refugee populations within the European Union — are threatening to yank back the welcome mat amid a sharp increase in the number of young Ukrainian men entering their countries in recent weeks after Kyiv loosened exit rules.

While sentiment within both countries is generally favorable toward Ukrainians, their growing presence is increasingly becoming a flashpoint wielded by far-right parties. With Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine going into its fourth winter, the debate is expected to intensify as millions risk being left without heating, water or electricity in the coming months due to ongoing attacks by the Kremlin.

In Germany, members of Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s governing conservatives are warning that while the country will continue taking in Ukrainian refugees, public support for the Ukrainian cause could wane if young male emigrants are seen to be avoiding military service.
“We have no interest in young Ukrainian men spending their time in Germany instead of defending their country,” Jürgen Hardt, a senior foreign policy lawmaker from Merz’s conservatives, told POLITICO on Tuesday. “Ukraine makes its own decisions, but the recent change in the law has led to a trend of emigration that we must address.”

Poland’s far-right Confederation party went further, saying in a statement: “Poland cannot continue to be a refuge for thousands of men who should be defending their own country, while burdening Polish taxpayers with the costs of their desertion.”

Ukrainian arrivals in both countries have increased significantly following the relaxation of Ukrainian exit rules over the summer — a move that ironically was intended to alleviate military recruitment issues by making it easier for young men to come and go.

Nearly 45,300 Ukrainian men between 18 and 22 years of age crossed the border to Poland from the beginning of 2025 until the loosening of exit restrictions at the end of August, according to numbers the Polish border guard sent to POLITICO. In the next two months that number soared to 98,500, or 1,600 per day.

And many of the newcomers appear to have kept moving west: The number of young Ukrainian men aged 18 to 22 entering Germany rose from 19 per week in mid-August to between 1,400 and 1,800 per week in October, according to German media reports citing numbers from the German interior ministry.

​​

Debate over social benefits

Germany and Poland host the most Ukrainian refugees within the European Union by far. About 1.2 million people who fled Ukraine after Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022 live in Germany and nearly one million in Poland — over half of all Ukrainians with protected status in the bloc, according to Eurostat data.

Although Ukrainians account for over 6 percent of the Polish workforce and contribute significantly to economic growth, far-right politicians argue they’re getting too many social benefits. Nationalist President Karol Nawrocki recently vetoed legislation on helping Ukrainians, saying only those who work and pay taxes in Poland should get benefits.

Similar demands have repeatedly been made by the ascendant far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party in Germany, which is now polling in first place. Along with demanding a stop to welfare payments to Ukrainians, the party is known for its skepticism toward military aid for Ukraine — at a time when Germany is Kyiv’s largest donor after the U.S.

Around 490,000 Ukrainian citizens of working age receive long-term unemployment benefits in Germany, according to data from the country’s employment agency.
​​​​​
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Old 10-31-2025 | 08:49 AM
  #29  
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Default Meanwhile, the major European war continues…

https://euromaidanpress.com/2025/10/...sk-surrounded/

Ukrainian troops nearly cut off as Pokrovsk defense strategy fails

Slow but steady Russian advances have nearly closed a pincer around three Ukrainian brigades. Is Ukraine’s urban defense strategy obsolete?
BYDAVID AXE
31/10/2025


Some excerpts:
The problem, in 2025, is that Ukraine is desperately short of trained infantry.

"To put it as bluntly as possible: Ukraine has fallen short by at least 10,000 recruits per month over the past two years," Ukraine Control Map explained.

"We don't lack the will to fight," wrote Ryan O'Leary, the former commander of the now-shuttered Chosen Company, a volunteer unit that fought in Ukraine. "We lack the infantry to hold the ground so we can continue fighting."

Ukraine compensates with a large force of tiny explosive drones. But the drones are most effective on open terrain where there's nowhere for their prey to hide.

They're least effective over cities, where their prey has everywhere to hide. If Russian troops can slip through the many wide gaps in Ukrainian defenses, they can accumulate in small but growing numbers inside a city like Pokrovsk
Ukrainian troops are dangerously close to being surrounded in the 30-square-kilometer pocket stretching from Pokrovsk east to Myrnohrad. The open end of the pocket, the only escape route for some or all of no fewer than three Ukrainian brigades—the 25th Air Assault Brigade, the 38th Marine Brigade and the 155th Mechanized Brigade—is barely 10 km across.

Commanders have yet to order the garrisons in Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad to withdraw north to the next line of Ukrainian defenses.

In any event, it's probably too late for a safe and orderly retreat. Russian drones and artillery can range across the only roads and footpaths out of the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad pocket. If there's any reason to hope for anything short of a catastrophic withdrawal, it's that the front line in Ukraine isn't really a line anymore—it's a porous zone of contested control.
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1...68580659/Maybe all those Ukrainian paratroopers, marines, and mechanized troops can slip out of the pocket the same way Russian troops have been slipping into it—on foot in small groups, at night. But it's risky. And the retreating Ukrainians may leave behind a lot of heavy equipment.

Serhii Sternenko—founder of the Sternenko Fund, which equips Ukrainian forces with drones—surely spoke for many Ukrainians when he voiced his frustration.

Citing chaotic and costly Ukrainian retreats from Avdiivka, Vuhledar, and Sudzha, he asked how yet another Ukrainian force could find itself "in a fire sack."

"Every time, our forces withdrew at the last moment with heavy losses, abandoning property and equipment," Sternenko wrote. "Not everyone could get out. Some remained in their positions forever. This is happening again right now."
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Old 10-31-2025 | 11:08 AM
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Default Worth the read…

https://www.politico.eu/article/frie...eform-germany/

Merz’s fragile coalition buckles under pressure to reform Germany

From the army to pensions to the fate of the car, every major reform in Berlin has become a political battlefield

With top politicians of the center left and center right feuding over key government policies, it’s affecting Germany’s place at the heart of the EU as other countries are having a hard time figuring out Berlin’s position on a host of key issues. There are also growing doubts over the coalition’s long-term survival prospects.

Fewer than one-third of Germans think the coalition will be able to govern until the end of the legislative period in 2029, according to a survey by polling institute Insa for Bild, which also saw government approval fall to a record low of just 25 percent.

At the same time, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) has recently overtaken Merz’s conservatives as Germany’s most popular party, according to POLITICO’s Poll of Polls, and its rising strength is adding to coalition tensions.

Since taking office in May, Merz’s Christian Democrats have tried to take the wind out of the sails of the anti-immigrant AfD by vowing to lead a crackdown on migration. But members of the SPD, Merz’s junior coalition partner, are increasingly trying to distance themselvesfrom a discourse they say is taken straight out of the far-right playbook.

The deputy leader of the SPD in parliament, Wiebke Esdar, went as far as joining anti-Merz protests over the weekend.

“The two major parties of the former center are now in a dilemma in that, on the one hand, they naturally have to distance themselves from each other to a certain extent, but at the same time they must always fear that, in a sense, if they do not work together properly, it will benefit the fringes,” said Florian Grotz, a political scientist at the Helmut Schmidt University in Hamburg.
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