Thought I'd try out another thread that has been on my mind. So much has been plastered across the internet that it is easy to miss important developments that actually affect the direction of the war. This is the place to post them as you see them. This is not the place to post well known information about the poor demographic trends of Russia and Ukraine. Nor the place to post blow by blow accounts of battles for towns like Pokrovsk (still not 100% conquered after 18 months).

Some examples of notable developments would be the introduction of fiber optic drones or the Kursk incursion. Operation Spiderweb would have certainly qualified to be included here... but was such a bombshell that it probably deserved its own thread. While Ukraine's campaign against Russian oil continues unabated (another Shadow Fleet tanker was hit today and probably a refinery too), I don't think there is much left to say until a culmination or tipping point is reached.

Anyways, I saw an article a few weeks back that was a revelation, but I didn't think to save it or start a thread at the time. The gist of it was that in the age of drones... defending wide open spaces is now much easier than defending urban areas. As Russians have managed to infiltrate Pokrovsk proper it has proven really, really tough to root them out from buildings and cellars. But crossing open ground in massed armor formations is now pretty much a suicide mission. In light of what the Chechens did to the Russians in Grozny this was a newsflash to me... but actually makes total sense upon further reflection (plus seeing a recent picture of a field absolutely littered with Russian corpses). It turns out that taking Pokrovsk proper may have been the easy part for Russia. Time will tell.

 

Image search or video that. Fields strewn with fibre optic like spiders laid silk, troops walking in it or on motorbikes getting entangled in it.

Which is debated to be either a smashing success or a colossal failure. We''re approaching 2 years since the "Spring Offensive", for what?

Meanwhile, the conflict rages on in a war of attrition.

An entire generation of men being wiped out, minute square miles of territory going back and forth, Ukraine looks like Stalingrad.....

 

The problem is that a war of attrition favors the country with the most resources. Comparing the population pyramids of Russia and Ukraine… well, there is no comparison.

Lets say the reasonable age for fighting men is between 20 and 55.

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Russia has 32+ million men in that age range.



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Ukraine has maybe 10 million max.

Demographics ain’t destiny but in a war of attrition it’s pretty damn close.

 

But.......but, all those billions we've allocated will offset that!!!!!!!!!! (eye roll)

 

Afghan totals were what? $2.3 Trillion Over 20 years? How’d that work out?


https://www.airandspaceforces.com/ai...g-to-aircraft/


Other than setting a new record for personnel aboard an airborne C-17 that is, which will at least get a footnote in USAF history.


https://www.airandspaceforces.com/ka...t-c-17-record/

 

It’s just an observation, but there’s times you get so wrapped up in posting/replying that you CANT pick up on sarcasm, tongue it cheek, what have you…..

Try some decaf.

OR, if you need it spelled out, the average dumb “I support Ukraine!!!!” American with the Ukraine flag on the social media/front porch thinks that all those billions we keep sending over there will somehow turn the tide and allow the Ukrainians to push the Russians out.

Well, at least for American that ACTUALLY knows that conflict is STILL going on anyway.

 

Maybe dumb Americans really think Ukraine can push Russia out, there's arguably around 50% of Americans who fall into that general category. I've never expressed much hope for Ukraine to actually push Russia out. What I'm hoping for is that Russia comes apart at the seams. I read an article just the other day that talked about how that becomes increasingly likely the longer this war continues, especially as Russia sacrifices upwards of five soldiers for each Ukrainian one and its future economic potential is strangled by the coming decline of hydrocarbons. Sorry I didn't think it was a "development" for this thread and I'll be dammed if I can find it now. Besides, I'd rather not post it and have to see the typical 3ish chaff responses for each article I post.

Anyways, here's another development that I've noticed but have not seen anything really written about. A big advantage Ukraine now has vs. Russia is a fairly "secure" rear echelon, i.e. - Western Europe. Because from here on out Russia only has its Far East, with pretty much anything to the west at risk. Lots of examples from American military history of how tough it is to defeat an enemy who has a secure rear echelon. While Ukraine is not capable of laying waste to entire factories or refineries at will, it has been doing a remarkable job of striking what Russia can't defend. It will take time for the effects to compound, but compound they will and the pressure at the seams will keep increasing.

Oh, and another notable development is it looks like the EU is finally going to succeed in slapping down the Belgians and accessing Russia's >$210 billion in sovereign assets parked in Europe. I'll believe it when the funds start to roll, but it sure looks like Ukraine will be set for years.

 

Well, most people thought that.

An often repeated sentiment, "Hope is NOT a strategy/plan". People thought the sanctions, as well as man/material sacrifice the Russians have expended would have come to fruition by NOW.

And yet Russia continues on.....

And it's a well known FACT those casualty/kill ratio numbers are ALL OVER THE PLACE. I venture to gather the U.S. intelligence apparatus has a better grasp of those number than any of the reporting sources out there.

And yet, Russia continues on.....

And its about damn time, we're almost 4 years into this conflict, with the current "hope" strategy NOT exactly working out. "Hindsight is 20/20", but imagine if that strategy was tried much much sooner? If western Europe stepped the eff up in a timely fashion, vs. simply trying to continuously throw billions of dollars (to the tune of only about 42% making it to Ukraine) at the problem?

Russia continues on.......

It's been argues in the previous threads that this "isn't a proxy war". Well, just the definition of "recession", the definition of proxy war can EASILY be changed. This is VERY MUCH a proxy war, with Ukraine as the pawn of the western world trying to dismantle/destruct the Russian system. With the strategy that worked in the Cold War, we'll simply outspend them and drive them into ruin....

In the words penned by Geoff Downes and John Wetton (R.I.P.), put into music by the 80's supergroup ASIA, "only time will tell"

Russia continues on.......

 

I understand sarcasm John. Did you miss the reference to “How well” the Afghan intervention turned out?

 

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You are aware, no doubt, that Russia has the largest area of ANY country. The vast majority of it is secure.it has a 2600 mile c border with China, which is actively supporting it, and a 770 mile border with Belarus, who is actively supporting it, and a small border even with North Korea, which is actively supporting it. That’s a pretty damn good rear echelon. And unfortunately for Ukraine, it shares 1200 mile plus border with Russia and a 674 mile one with Belarus, even before they occupied 20% of Ukraine. It’s longer and more manpower intensive now.
I’ll believe it when the funds start to roll too. I understand the reluctance of Western Europe to spend their own money but they also derive a ton of income from international banking. A first ever sovereign wealth confiscation - let alone confiscation of the confiscation of the wealth of all those Russian individuals under sanction, is going to take Europe out of the international banking business for a generation. I thing the bankers in London, Zurich, and Belgium are going to somehow intercede to stop it, but you may be right. Time will tell. But that could - conceivably - fund Ukraine for a few years more of war.