As he has done for some time now, Fico is acting as Orban’s wingman by offering support on both a moral and practical level. Crucially, he is blocking unanimous agreement at European Council meetings on any potential counter measures against the Hungarian government, so allowing it to continue the confrontation.

It is far from the first time that the nationalist-populist Slovak premier has broken ranks with the EU to push a pro-Russian stance.

Fico has spent the past two and a half years bickering with Zelensky, and has consistently sought to complicate EU efforts to support Kyiv. And like Orban’s government, his coalition has done little to diversify Slovakia’s oil and gas away from Russian supplies.

In 2025, Slovakia vetoed the bloc’s 18th package of sanctions against Russia, only lifting it after Brussels promised to address with some of Bratislava’s concerns, including EU plans to bar all Russian energy imports and phase out sales of petrol and diesel vehicles.

Peter Magyar, the Hungarian politician most likely to defeat Viktor Orbán, promises “regime change” but signals continuity on several core policies. The European Union should manage expectations and prepare for a more complex relationship than a simple post-Orbán reset.

With less than two months to go before Hungary’s 12 April elections, the Tisza party led by Péter Magyar is polling ahead of Orban’s Fidesz. For the first time since 2010, a change of government appears genuinely possible.

The stakes are high. A fifth consecutive term for Orbán would further entrench what the European Parliament has described as a “hybrid regime of electoral autocracy” at the heart of Europe, and reinforce Budapest’s capacity to obstruct common EU positions, including on security. But Orbán’s defeat would not automatically translate into smooth relations with Brussels.

This raises the question of what a Magyar-led government would look like in practice. A former Fidesz member and government official, and the former spouse of Orbán's ex-EU Affairs and Justice Minister, Magyar entered politics in early 2024. Running on an anti-corruption and anti-state-capture platform, his party won nearly 30% of the vote in the European elections, securing seven MEPs and joining the centre-right European People’s Party (EPP).

Regime change without full rupture

Tisza’s manifesto, published in early February, outlines a broadly pro-European trajectory. The party says that it “chooses Europe”, pledges to rebuild trust with EU and NATO allies and commits to joining the eurozone by 2030. Restoring the rule of law is framed primarily as a means to unlock €18 billion in EU funds currently frozen over systemic violations.

Yet EU leaders should not assume that a Magyar government would mark a clean break with Orbán-era policies. On Ukraine, Tisza’s manifesto is notably thin, beyond opposing Ukraine’s accelerated accession. Magyar has repeatedly stated that he would not reverse Hungary's current policy of non-support. While he signals an intention to reduce dependence on Russia, his proposed timeline – by 2035 – falls well behind the EU’s 2027 target. Tisza further opposes the Commission’s proposal for the next EU multiannual financial framework (MFF), arguing that it disadvantages Hungary, and rejects the EU migration and asylum pact.

APRIL 20, 2026 12:33 PM CET
BY SEBASTIAN STARCEVICSlovenia’s caretaker prime minister, Robert Golob, on Monday admitted his party was unable to form a government, potentially paving the way for the return of populist Janez Janša.

Golob’s liberal Freedom Movement won last month’s national election by a razor-thin margin, securing 29 of the 90 seats in the Slovenian parliament, but failed to secure a governing majority. After a month of failed coalition talks, Golob said he had informed Slovenian President Nataša Pirc Musar that his party had resigned itself to leading the parliamentary opposition.

Janša, whose Slovenian Democratic Party secured 28 seats in last month’s election, is now expected to attempt to form a right-wing coalition government.

APRIL 19, 2026 7:06 PM CET
BY CHRISTIAN OLIVERRumen Radev, a Russia-aligned former president, scored an emphatic win in Bulgaria’s election on Sunday, crushing long-established parties that he accused of being the key enablers of an oligarch-dominated mafia state.

The election was the Balkan country’s eighth in five years — amid rolling political crises and fragile coalitions — and 62-year-old former air force commander Radev used his newly created Progressive Bulgaria party to break the impasse.

With 78 percent of ballots counted, it looked like he had effectively overturned Bulgaria’s old political order, winning about 44 percent of the vote, putting him on track for an absolute majority. A pro-EU liberal reformist coalition was in second place, with about 14 percent.

Radev has encouraged Ukraine to sue for peace, does not support sending arms to Kyiv and says his insistence that Crimea is “Russian” simply reflects a strategic reality. He is also a critic of Sofia’s accession to the euro this year, arguing the new currency has stoked inflation.

In remarks after Sunday’s election, he portrayed his desire for dialogue with Russia as being increasingly part of the European mainstream. He argued that diplomacy with Moscow would be necessary not only to secure a new security architecture for the continent but was vital in relation to energy costs and industrial competitiveness. He hinted during the campaign that he favored cheap oil imports from Russia.

​​In Brussels, reactions from some in the center-right European People’s Party and center-left Socialists and Democrats groups were forthright. Czech conservative MEP Tomáš Zdechovský said, “Bulgaria has sent a clear — and deeply concerning — signal.”

“Rumen Radev, a politician openly critical of support for Ukraine and long seen as sympathetic to Russia, appears to have secured a parliamentary majority. This is no longer just an election result — it is a serious geopolitical shift,” he wrote on X.

Austrian Social Democratic MEP Andreas Schieder said, “With Radev, the next Putin friend will likely enter the Council, and Orbán is thus merely passing the baton,” describing Radev’s election as a “setback for Europe
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