is there ever gonna be a pilot shortage
04-21-2010, 10:07 AM
#51
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Joined APC: Apr 2010
Posts: 453
Thats a tricky question. The optimist in me says yes, due to general lack of interest in becoming a professional pilot. Too many people are becoming wise to the game of laying out a bunch of money and spending years gaining experience only to be furloughed. A lot of FOs I've flown with over the past few months has plans to either get out or is leaving altogether for various things. They see no upgrades in the future and their overall sense of satisfaction in the job is way low. Some may have a sense of entitlement to them, but others see it as "Im young enough, let me rearrainge my ducts now so Im not stuck".
As a pessimist, I dont see a shortage. You'll always have the "I just want to fly, I dont care what I make, its my dream" types. These types are 'Riddled' throughout this industry. They MUST keep in mind they will get older and wives, kids, retirement savings and mortgages come at you real quick. Making 25K a year sounds like a lot of beer money in college but in reality it isn't even close enough to live on.
As a pessimist, I dont see a shortage. You'll always have the "I just want to fly, I dont care what I make, its my dream" types. These types are 'Riddled' throughout this industry. They MUST keep in mind they will get older and wives, kids, retirement savings and mortgages come at you real quick. Making 25K a year sounds like a lot of beer money in college but in reality it isn't even close enough to live on.
04-21-2010, 10:10 AM
#52
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Joined APC: Nov 2009
Posts: 5,206
Originally Posted by crabinow16
While I have spent a large amount of money on my education I have not gone into debt yet. When I get out of school I will be just like everyone here was excited and "Looking through the rose colored glasses" While i may have a great outlook I also know the realities of the industry. I know that there aren't many jobs out there. I know that they are going to pump their requirements up to 1500TT. Also I know that there is legislation for holders of an aviation 4 year degree to have that TT reduced to 750. That is enough of a reason for me to completely suggest that getting an aviation degree is probably not a horrible choice. Also I feel that there would be less of an issue if there wasn't a horrible recession going on right now. Those CFI jobs where you built time like none other have been disappearing like crazy because no one is learning to fly right now. Airlines are championing callbacks of 12 pilots. There will be a pilot shortage the time line for it has not been set yet. I am skeptical about the scope clauses. because I think you are on the right track but what about the airlines like Alaska, Southwest, Jetblue and Airtran? They are Large carriers who are defined as Legacy. would they then become regional? I think that the scope clause for the Big 5 might change but I don't think the Pilot groups of the other "Legacy's" would go for it.
/sarcasm
I hope you realize kiddo, that there are experienced pilots out there like myself with 4 year aviation degrees that are jumping through our own asses to help squash this "expemtion of experience" for a formal education.
I've written no less than a dozen letter to politicians expressing my opinions on the matter, and received several letters of support from them. I've also flamed away at the ERAU alumni department for their part in trying to subvert the minimums. As was expected, they've largely ignored me, which is fine, my bank account ignores them.
04-21-2010, 10:12 AM
#53
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Joined APC: Sep 2008
Position: B767
Posts: 1,901
Originally Posted by Eric Stratton
Are you one of those pilots that blame new hires for taking a food stamp paying job yet don't say anything to the pilots that actually negotiated that food stamp pay? It's not a new hire problem unless it's a start up without a negotiated contract.
04-21-2010, 10:14 AM
#54
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Joined APC: Jun 2007
Position: Legacy FO
Posts: 4,097
If these continued reports of how 3 out of 4 kids in the USA aren't eligible for military service due to fitness / health problems, there very well could be a shortage in the future.
But I wouldn't hold my breath for it.
But I wouldn't hold my breath for it.
04-21-2010, 10:31 AM
#55
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Joined APC: Feb 2010
Position: DHC-8 FO
Posts: 283
Originally Posted by Grumble
I hope you guys are paying attention to this kid. This is the voice of experience from a 20 year old. He's right, you're all wrong. Get with the program.
/sarcasm
I hope you realize kiddo, that there are experienced pilots out there like myself with 4 year aviation degrees that are jumping through our own asses to help squash this "expemtion of experience" for a formal education.
I've written no less than a dozen letter to politicians expressing my opinions on the matter, and received several letters of support from them. I've also flamed away at the ERAU alumni department for their part in trying to subvert the minimums. As was expected, they've largely ignored me, which is fine, my bank account ignores them.
/sarcasm
I hope you realize kiddo, that there are experienced pilots out there like myself with 4 year aviation degrees that are jumping through our own asses to help squash this "expemtion of experience" for a formal education.
I've written no less than a dozen letter to politicians expressing my opinions on the matter, and received several letters of support from them. I've also flamed away at the ERAU alumni department for their part in trying to subvert the minimums. As was expected, they've largely ignored me, which is fine, my bank account ignores them.
As long as someone worked for a certain wage then they will continue to only offer that salary.
Also I am 22 i think I now should get some real respect...Just joking
04-21-2010, 10:50 AM
#56
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Joined APC: Nov 2005
Posts: 2,002
Originally Posted by wrxpilot
I don't blame new hires for anything. Assuming one is working in the USA, they are in a free country that allows one to choose where they want to work. The person I responded to (Blackbird) was going off on a rant about selling the profession short. I just found that to be amusing, considering he had "Saab" listed in his profile. Assuming he's working at a regional airline and not a corporate operator, it's a bit like the pot calling the kettle black.
04-21-2010, 11:09 AM
#57
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Joined APC: Sep 2006
Position: Back in school.
Posts: 580
Originally Posted by Blaine01
He is not saying a degree is worthless. He is saying an AVIATION degree is worthless. I realize you have done your research on this career, but untill you are on the other side of that 121 cockpit door please stop trying to Educate those of us that have been in this industry awhile. We all wore those rose colored glasses you currently don. I wish, when I was where you are, I would have listened more closely to those that had gone before me. Take it for what its worth.
Originally Posted by crabinow16
I know that there aren't many jobs out there. I know that they are going to pump their requirements up to 1500TT. Also I know that there is legislation for holders of an aviation 4 year degree to have that TT reduced to 750. That is enough of a reason for me to completely suggest that getting an aviation degree is probably not a horrible choice. Also I feel that there would be less of an issue if there wasn't a horrible recession going on right now.
I think 1500/500 is the min that needs to be put in place... no exceptions... none.... nada... regardless... aviation degree or not. Places like Purdue, SIU, UND, and Riddle are pushing for that legislation so that they can keep their doors open and charge the crap out of people. For us as pilots to have any hope of an increase in pay we need a shortage of pilots.
We wouldn't be in this recession if people lived within their means and didn't try to live in houses that they couldn't afford. Americans on the whole are stupid like that and big champions of instant gratification.
04-21-2010, 11:15 AM
#58
veut gagner à la loterie
Joined APC: Apr 2008
Position: Light Chop
Posts: 23,286
Originally Posted by BoilerUP
That's something myself and a few other alums have been fighting for with Purdue alumni - to have more real-world topics discussed in the new curriculum with students vs. 4 semesters worth of 727 systems classes that an airline would teach in 2 40-hour weeks.
I think a contributing factor to this is at many universities, faculty don't have much industry experience...especially in the last 10-15 years. One reason for this is many universities want aviation faculty to have M.S. degrees if not Ph.Ds...and there simply aren't that many folks out there that have a strong professional/operational background with those academic credentials that want to teach.
I think a contributing factor to this is at many universities, faculty don't have much industry experience...especially in the last 10-15 years. One reason for this is many universities want aviation faculty to have M.S. degrees if not Ph.Ds...and there simply aren't that many folks out there that have a strong professional/operational background with those academic credentials that want to teach.
Colleges are places of academia and they can be rather incestuous. Auburn has or at least had the same issue, a former major pilot / major airline pilot who is a current CFI/MEI is not going to qualify for a job teaching on campus but an aviation washout that sticks around a college campus until he earns a masters or PHd will and then they get to teach the future generation.
And 4 semesters of an airplane that is hard to find anymore is pointless. I think Auburn did DC-10s for a while and when they were doing that it was a joke of an idea. Systems courses ought to teach basic systems found throughout the industry and what it means to future pilots and aviation managers, problem is, they can't find people who could correlate the information.
And I doubt any of that will change because the truck driving school (aviation management) wants to do things the right way but not necessarily academia’s way.
I think there are 2 ways for students to get the most out of college whether they are aviation management or not but planning on going into this industry and that is:
a) choose their favorite airline long-term and intern somewhere in flight ops and if you’re unable to do that then try a regional, and
b) read every single aviation magazine they can.
04-21-2010, 11:41 AM
#60
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Joined APC: Mar 2006
Position: in front of a computer screen
Posts: 712
There are certainly A LOT of guys on the street with over 1500tt, I doubt highly that it will equate into a pilot shortage!
The last few months I have been flying with guys that are/ or where getting close to retiring: none said they would do it all over again... I think that tells you something.
but hey... chase your dream but don't cry to loud when it becomes a nightmare.
The last few months I have been flying with guys that are/ or where getting close to retiring: none said they would do it all over again... I think that tells you something.
but hey... chase your dream but don't cry to loud when it becomes a nightmare.
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