Of course there is and always will be a pilot shortage. Just ask Kit Darby. He has made a nice career by crying wolf.

 

The law profession is also going though a rationalization as well.

It never will be like driving a bus. Do not sell yourself short. I do not think I bus driver could land nor take off a jet on a clear day with everything working much less do it on a cruddy day with a major or minor malfunction. What we do is a profession. It takes brains and skills. Skills that are not easily taught. Like a lawyer or surgeon, it is easy to put on the lab coat and preform the everyday procedures, but it takes time and honing of those skills and hand eye coordination to perfect it.

 

Only for those companies at the bottom of the employment food chain that don't pay a fair wage...

 

Even he has stopped crying wolf: Aviation Information Resources, Inc. Ceases Operations

The only place there might be a shortage is the regionals (sub-standard QOL for sub-standard pay).

Everyone is always telling me about how the retirement perfect storm is shaping up, and I simply ignore it all. When the hiring at the majors does start again, it will still be ultra-competitive. Take a look at the regional growth and the resulting pool of experience that the majors will have to pick from.

Then, consider that the majors have only been outsourcing more, not less, work to the regionals. What's to stop them when all of their pilots retire, if so many are willing to go to work for their regional feeders?

Finally, take a look at our beloved government that, in one way or another, is always willing to step in and "rescue" the industry with one regulation or another to keep the shortage at bay (age 65, MPL, etc.).

There will never be a pilot shortage for the majors, nor any other truly "career-level" jobs.

 

Nope. There will never be a shortage of pilots.

 

Whether or not there will be a pilot shortage in the coming years depends on so many factors that it is hard to predict. Some of those factors include age 65, the economy (both world and US), FAA proposed duty limitations along with any commuter rules, and possible modification of scope clauses (good or bad).

There certainly is not one now! And there will not be one for at least another 3 to 4 years (I think that is optomistic too).

Denny

 

IMO there will be a shortage whether or not it is going to be 10 years down the road or in 3 years is another matter. Witht he new qual's and the industry down the drain. The minute the furloughed pilots have all been called back and the flow starts again I don't believe that there will be enough pilots with the required quals. I think if they implemented 1500TTat a time where people were learning to fly, Night cargo carriers were still going strong and there was a large demand for aviation then it wouldn't be an issue. As of right now theough nto many people are going to be able to make the mins by flight instructing and other such ways.

Also for all of you who have been saying go do something else with your life...I have three things for you.

1) My dream has always been to be an airline pilot. I think it would be the greatest job in the world. If you do not believe that it is so and You are telling people to go do other things with their life I personally believe that you should jsut pack it in. I am sure that there is some furloughed guy out there who would love to go back to work.

2) For those of us with dreams of being a pro pilot I am not going to let an extremly cynical person who has the job I want tell me that I should not pursue my dream cause its not worht it in the end...I don't see them leaving the profession

3) To reitierate. If you are unhappy with your job some one else out there would probably love to have it. Why not let them.

 

Keep that optimism, fellow Boilermaker...you're going to need it after a couple years in the industry. Don't allow negativity to bring you down, but at the same time don't allow yourself to be caught naively wearing rose-colored glasses.

Reality has a way of bringing one's dreams crashing back to earth...believe me, I've experienced it first hand.

 

Yeah I am doing an internship with Alaska right now and It is a definite eye opener but I know what I want to do and I know that I will be able to find a way to do it somehow. whether it is working at Mickey D's and making money to fly or flying right seat in a Caravan. I definitely know about the crashing thing had a plan for the summer and lets jsut say it was like a good movie with a really crappy ending.

 

True. That's a given. I've yet to hear of a 777 Captain shortage at the legacies. OTOH, some of the crappier cargo carriers flying heavies may run into a pilot shortage if better jobs become available.