blastoff

I'll be more clear...there is a severe rift between the FAA and the RPA community over loss of separation incidents with civilian airliners (Mil and DOD contractors)...not sure what Oceans have to do with it, its not like an RPA can go "Due Regard" over the CONUS. It will be a while before the FAA is satisfied UAV's can operate outside the confines of a TFR or the Edwards R-2508.

Diver Driver

Yep! I've said it before and I'll say it again. There will never be a shortage of pilots, there will only be a shortage of pilots willing to work for the poverty level wages and poor treatment that the airlines dish out.

Sink r8

How does scope relief help the company when there are no pilots training because of the low wages at the regionals? You would think supply and demand would actually give an incentive to insource (in order to be able to recruit), accept higher wages, and up-gauge.

Of course, as we go to larger and larger airplanes to compensate for higher and higher costs... oops, no, we went to LBP, and an A380 pays the same as a Maddog, so we're left fighting for "COLA Plus". Fantastic...

Sink r8

Isn't that precisely what the article suggests is already happening?

Diver Driver

For the most part and in this case, yes. However, I was generalizing. Many people are saying there won't be enough pilots period. This article is correct in stating that there will be a shortage of willing applicants. I would love to see a shortage, I think it would be good for those of us already in the industry or trying to get in, however, I am extremely skeptical... I mean, how many times have we heard about 'the shortage' before...

rickair7777

I am not short sighted, I have actually made some money with forward thinking.

My opinions on UAV's carry people are based are in-depth technical knowledge, particularly systems and software engineering, combined with many years of government and private-sector management experience.

You are right in one sense only...it will probably happen. But it's not going to be any time soon. The technology is achievable, but the required level of REDUNDANCY and reliability does NOT exist at any reasonable cost: You can buy a satellite which weighs about as much as an RJ for $2 Billion...since those things can't be repaired in orbit, they go to extreme lengths to try to ensure they don't fail. It works well...most of the time.

Then you have all the issues with re-engineering the national airspace system...who's going to pay? Why would the government go to the trouble? What about the rest of the world?

Then you have security issues and public perception. Oh yeah, on an automated airliner any writeup more serious than a tray-table is going to grounding. You've obviously never flown an A320...

I think the military will pave the way eventually, and I know all about military UAS programs...they are not even considering flying troops around in un-manned aircraft. How the hell would you write that letter to Corporal Johny's Mom, that he died despite the best efforts of the autopilot and they dude drinking coffee in a control van on the other side of the world??? Our current military leaders are not going to go there...

My slightly-educated guess? Shortly after the turn of the century.

f16jetmech

Which I agree with. Which is why pay will then increase (following the laws of supply and demand). Initially a pilot shortage until it gets bad enough until pay is competitive again.

snippercr

I am curious on this one and I have tried finding the answer online but couldn't. Just about everyone here will claim "There never has been a pilot shortage and never will be one." However, it was only a few years (2007/2008) when airlines were hiring with less than 500 hours. My question is, what caused that? To me that sounds awfully like a pilot shortage (I was still in training at the time).

blastoff

People with less time than that were getting hired at UAL in the Mid-90's. Sounds like a pilot shortage as well.

Assassin

In my opinion, as we move into the future people will be traveling more. This will create demand. Oil prices are still a deterrent, but Boeing and Airbus are already working on more "efficient airliners". The more accessible that flying becomes to the global population, the better it puts airlines in a position to make a profit, something that they haven't done well, but remember that aviation is still young. Early on in the 60's and 70's oil prices were cheap and flying was still a noble concept, things got more difficult in the 80's and 90's and we'll the event's of the new millennium just about destroyed everything. Now if airlines manage to adapt to this new climate, and demand thus in fact increase, then this becomes a promising thing for pilots.

Like someone previously mentioned, before planes fly themselves, we will need cars, boats, and trains that are self automated, flying will be last since it has the smallest margin for error. In order to do any of that, the infrastructure needed, is huge, complicated, and expensive. Computers crash and make mistakes. We still have ways to go before perfecting that, not only that, I think that as a society we have other things to worry about and wont put all of our resources into "automation" especially since it won't be positively received in the near future.

Besides, there is more of a chance of us making trips to outer space than getting replaced by computers in the near future. I think that for now more fuel efficient planes, that are safer and faster will keep Boeing and Airbus plenty busy. Fifty or sixty years down the road, we'll then that's another story.

A pilot shortage, who knows. But this year all U.S Airlines except for American Airlines posted profits. Hopefully this positive trend continues.